Hitman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 My guess is the NEK down to KLEB has the best shot at synoptic accumulating snows as of now. Wouldn't count on too much though...maybe a few inches. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yesterday my 52.5" was within 0.05" of my 15-yr avg for snowfall to date. Since my daily avg for Feb is 0.77"/day, I'm now -0.72" unless something should surprise between now and 9 PM. Thinking I'll slip 6-8" under the avg before anything serious comes along. I thought you'd be higher. I kept track of all winters in Belgrade Lakes from 1989 through last year, but sadly have not calculated the mean, but I thought we'd be more than 52". It'll give me an excuse to trudge through some more of my journals and tally up some more data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I thought you'd be higher. I kept track of all winters in Belgrade Lakes from 1989 through last year, but sadly have not calculated the mean, but I thought we'd be more than 52". It'll give me an excuse to trudge through some more of my journals and tally up some more data. My full-season avg is 87"; Farmington's is 1-2" above that. Thru 2/14 mine is 54", then the 14-yr avg adds another 10.5" for the 2nd half of Feb, 16.7" March, 5.7" April. Beginning to look like my "...will be 6-8" below avg before anything decent..." comment may get buried over the weekend (he said hopefully.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 My full-season avg is 87"; Farmington's is 1-2" above that. Thru 2/14 mine is 54", then the 14-yr avg adds another 10.5" for the 2nd half of Feb, 16.7" March, 5.7" April. Beginning to look like my "...will be 6-8" below avg before anything decent..." comment may get buried over the weekend (he said hopefully.) Oops, I didn't see the "thru 2/14" part. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 1/4" overnight at home and around a half inch at the base of the ski area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Event totals: 0.1” Snow/Trace L.E. A found a tenth of an inch of fluff on the board this morning with some flurries around. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 31.6 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Been snowing decently at times here this morning. Mansfield is on a little streak here, seemingly pulling every available bit of moisture out... managing to see the one or two pixels overhead light-up to moderate bursts as these pass overhead. Closer to 3/4ths now at the base...groomers saying 1-2" up top so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Been snowing decently at times here this morning. Mansfield is on a little streak here, seemingly pulling every available bit of moisture out... managing to see the one or two pixels overhead light-up to moderate bursts as these pass overhead. Closer to 3/4ths now at the base...groomers saying 1-2" up top so we'll see. Indeed. You do realize I bring snow lol Sadly, after some morning fun it's back to the PA cabin for weekend training. Busy busy week. Even made a few visits....PJ....Edgewise....pinnacle.......loads of deals on racer gear and kids grow like weeds. Been a fantastic week in Stowe!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Had a nice little flizzard at the house this morning picking up a quick 0.2" Not looking like much this weekend afterall though.... Maybe a swfe-ish kind of thing next week? Not usually my favorite type of event but they can be useful for some high density, pack-enhancing type snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Indeed. You do realize I bring snow lol Sadly, after some morning fun it's back to the PA cabin for weekend training. Busy busy week. Even made a few visits....PJ....Edgewise....pinnacle.......loads of deals on racer gear and kids grow like weeds. Been a fantastic week in Stowe!! You did bring some great snow, haha. Come back anytime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Geez, the good looking long range has gone to hell the last couple runs. Is it that progged monster block over Hudson Bay that doesn't move for days on end? Seems to shred out/suppress everything that tries to advance on it. Is that where a "west based" -NAO is usually located? If so, it's too far west and/or too strong. Seems like a strong -NAO is much more important for those south of us and can actually be to our detriment at this latitude. Sorry for the amateur question...I'm just a humble winter weather lover, not a met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Man, just a dusting overnight here. Swing and a miss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Had 1.8" of 36:1 5-8 AM fluff, then a few weenie flakes which still drift by. Quite pretty out, but 10 minutes of sun and it's all gone (or settled to about 1/4".) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Not looking good up here for the near future in terms of snow outside of the summits. Huge NAO block is forcing storm systems south of New England. Like way south...leaving us high and dry. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Not looking good up here for the near future in terms of snow outside of the summits. Huge NAO block is forcing storm systems south of New England. Like way south...leaving us high and dry. Ugh. Folks south luv -NAO, The can hurt us more sometimes then help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Folks south luv -NAO, The can hurt us more sometimes then help Yup. I do still think NNE will see a biggie when the block loosens it's grip probably in the first week of march. From then on, it can be spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Yup. I do still think NNE will see a biggie when the block loosens it's grip probably in the first week of march. From then on, it can be spring 2010 was a perfect example, Watched many coastals get up to LI and hit a brick wall and move ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 2010 was a perfect example, Watched many coastals get up to LI and hit a brick wall and move ENE 2010 was down right sh*tty for me in CT...the gradient was like always over NYC, 12" south, nada north. Absolutely rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Yup. I do still think NNE will see a biggie when the block loosens it's grip probably in the first week of march. From then on, it can be spring That's usually what happens...like 10-11 when we watched SNE get HECS type storms, only to then get a 2.5" QPF and 27" bomb on March 7th as the jet lifted north. Of course, they occur with very little fanfare when SNE isn't in the game. I think that was the least posted about 2 foot storm in New England history, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I had been noticing this upslope on several model runs, just in the usual textbook hint of lingering trace amounts of precipitation across the northern Greens for several periods on NW flow, but BTV with a good discussion on the potential upslope around midweek... .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...AS OF 300 PM EST SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE ANAMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LVL FLOW. ANTICIPATING TWO LOWTO MODERATE STORMS TO IMPACT OUR FA...WITH THE FIRST ARRIVING ONTUES AND ANOTHER BY NEXT WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A 12 TO 18HRWINDOW OF FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT THRU WEDS NIGHT...WITHSNOW ACCUMULATIONS SIMILAR TO THE UPSLOPE EVENT A COUPLE DAYS AGO.MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON TUES...WITH CLOSED CYCLONIC5H/7H CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES LIFTING ACRS THEGREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. ONCE AGAIN SFC LOW PRES ISTRACKING TO OUR WEST...THEREFORE EXPECT LIMITED IMPACTS WITHDOWNSLOPE SHADOWING OFF THE DACKS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WL BEPOSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EXPOSED HIGHER TRRN/CPV AND SLV ON TUES. INADDITION...THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OFRAIN/SNOW VALLEYS AND MAINLY SNOW MTNS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN0.05" AND 0.30". SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WL BE POSSIBLE INTHE MTNS ON TUES. TUES NIGHT THRU WEDS NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF SHOWFAVORABLE LEFTOVER SFC THRU 700MB RH...ALONG WITH GOOD SFC TO850MB UPSLOPE FLW. ALSO...HAVE NOTICED ENHANCED UVVS SIGNATURES INTHE NORTHERN DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES...SHOWING THE POTENTIAL UPSLOPEPRECIP CHCS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DEPTH/DURATION OF RHPROFILES...ESPECIALLY IF A DRIER NW FLW DEVELOPS...WHICH IS HINTEDBY SEVERAL SOLUTIONS. TEMPS WL BE COLDER THAN PREVIOUSEVENT...WHICH WL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT MOISTURE AND SUPPORT A HIGHERSNOW RATIO...BUT COLDER AIR HOLDS LESS MOISTURE. EARLY INDICATIONSWOULD BE FOR A MODERATE EVENT WITH ACCUMULATIONS ACRS NORTHERN NYAND WESTERN SLOPES BTWN 4 AND 10 INCHES. WL CONT TO FINE TUNELOCATIONS/AMOUNTS AS EVENT BECMS CLOSER. OUTSIDE OF UPSLOPEPRECIP...EXPECT SCATTERED FLURRIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 This is good. Heres to it coming to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 A few inches of upslope following a 1-3 inch synoptic snow looks like the route to go right now. Maybe a 4-8 inch total event for the mountains for both parts is what I'm leaning towards. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...AS OF 326 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOSED UPR LOW ROTATING EWD FROM THEERN GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE NORTH COUNTYBETWEEN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. LEADING OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THRUAROUND 00Z WED...SO MAJORITY OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILLLIKELY HAVE MOVED EAST OF VT BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE CLOSED UPRLOW WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DURINGTUESDAY NIGHT. WITH WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ANTICIPATEOROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWSHOWERS IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE NORTHERN GREEN MTNS. HAVEADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ABOVE MEX-MOS NUMBERS GIVEN CLOUDS AND WESTERLYWINDS; HAVE NOTED TENDENCY FOR MOS TO BE TOO COLD IN THESESITUATIONS. INDICATED LOW TEMPS IN THE MID-UPR 20S FOR TUESDAYNIGHT WITH AN OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION SIGNATURE DEVELOPING AFTERMIDNIGHT.FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUEWEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND EARLY THURSDAY AS CLOSED UPR LOWSTALLS ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWFCONTINUE TO INDICATE A MOIST DEEP-LAYER NWLY FLOW REGIME ON THE WRNPERIPHERY OF THE LOW THAT WOULD MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THENRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL TO NRN GREEN MTNS. SEVERAL INCHES OFSNOW ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE. IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THEADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MTNS...BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST EXPECTED WITHPARTIAL SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Actually getting a few flakes here flying around in the very strong northerlies that are blowing. Cold too at 10F. Doing a ski tour later today--going to be cold & crunchy, me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Event totals: 0.4” Snow/0.01” L.E. I was surprised to wake up to fresh snow this morning. According to the BTV NWS forecast discussion there’s some Lake Champlain LES going on to our west, but that’s usually very localized, and based on the radar it seems like this could be moisture interacting with the Greens as it comes over from the system to our east: Details from the 7:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 11.5 F Sky: Light Snow (1-4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Haven't given upon winter yet, but I have a foot through that door. It's been one of those winters where we get everyone else's sloppy seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Haven't given upon winter yet, but I have a foot through that door. It's been one of those winters where we get everyone else's sloppy seconds. You should try thirsty thirds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I see a couple yellow pixels have set up shop and remain perfectly still about 7 miles to my east again. Maybe there just aren't going to be any yellow pixels for me this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I see a couple yellow pixels have set up shop and remain perfectly still about 7 miles to my east again. Maybe there just aren't going to be any yellow pixels for me this winter.Even if they were over you it probably would've blown to Barnstead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStick Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Eye balling about 2" here. Good snow tornados in the higher gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Smokin cirrus today. Actually more like stratus haha. Cold too. Went to Newport for breakfast and it was 8F when we left at 945. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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