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February 13th-14th Winter Storm Discussion Part II

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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mikemurph44

mikemurph44

Posted
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The Euro didn't nail this, at all. We had little room for error, so a comparatively small move by the amped models means much more than a large move by a flat model. The Euro moved and flopped around considerably in the last few days. It has fits with this fast pattern as well.

. It did nail this though, it was the only model that was totally unwavering that this would be a non event right from the beginning and never changed from this being nothing. All of the other models flip flopped badly, even the gfs, at one point all of the models besides the euro showed if not warning levels snows for the area, then darn close to it. Did the euro shift north and show some minimal precip getting in here? Sure, but even with the shift north it still showed dismal qpf. Now we see the other models shift to a non event which the euro showed all along and still does
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TWCCraig

TWCCraig

Posted
Posted

. It did nail this though, it was the only model that was totally unwavering that this would be a non event right from the beginning and never changed from this being nothing. All of the other models flip flopped badly, even the gfs, at one point all of the models besides the euro showed if not warning levels snows for the area, then darn close to it. Did the euro shift north and show some minimal precip getting in here? Sure, but even with the shift north it still showed dismal qpf. Now we see the other models shift to a non event which the euro showed all along and still does

 

This isn't a non event like the Euro was showing. I could still see an inch, lucky to see two.

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jm1220

jm1220

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. It did nail this though, it was the only model that was totally unwavering that this would be a non event right from the beginning and never changed from this being nothing. All of the other models flip flopped badly, even the gfs, at one point all of the models besides the euro showed if not warning levels snows for the area, then darn close to it. Did the euro shift north and show some minimal precip getting in here? Sure, but even with the shift north it still showed dismal qpf. Now we see the other models shift to a non event which the euro showed all along and still does

Whether a model succeeded or not in forecasting an event has nothing to do with how things turn out in your backyard. :lol:

 

Look at the overall Euro presentation from 3 days ago and compare to where it is now. I don't see any model as having a great performance.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

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The fact that it doesnt snow in you`re backyard doesnt get the Euro to claim victory , ( Agian I love the Euro ) but it got toasted here . from 120 hrs out thru 48 it had the slp run due EAST off Hatt , inside 48 hrs it brought the low up 500 miles !

As it is there are NW suburbs of philly around the york may stand to get 2 inches of snow and CNJ possibly 1 -2 and the Euro to this minute still doesnt see that .

 

The NAM and GFS which I despise at times locked the centers position off the coast of AC and only in the last 12 hours shifted it 50 to 75 miles south and just so happened to weaken it as well .

You have to look at the overall picture I know some you babies saw the .50 - .75 by the NAM yesterday and got all excited like little girls , and now that you`re not going to  see accumulating snow , you want to claim the  Euro won . IT DIDNT . The Euro is a superior model , but moving 500 miles in 2 days that took 5 days to do so isnt a win . The fact we dont get an advisory snow is more to do with a weakening SW , not that  the storm is off NC with  WHIFF here like the Euro told us all week .   

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mikemurph44

mikemurph44

Posted
Posted

Whether a model succeeded or not in forecasting an event has nothing to do with how things turn out in your backyard. :lol:

Look at the overall Euro presentation from 3 days ago and compare to where it is now. I don't see any model as having a great performance.

. Also, my backyard? The other models were showing near warning level snows, some actual warning level snow for the entire metro area, now look what happened. The euro consistently showed nothing of the sort. I don't get your point, the entire metro area isn't my backyard
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jm1220

jm1220

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Mt. Holly nws disagrees with you

Again, look at the Euro runs over the last 3-4 days and you will see it has generally flopped all over the place just like other models. The storm is likely to turn out a lot differently than the Euro had it across multiple runs. There was plenty of reason to doubt it given its subpar performance this winter in general, the overall pattern, and trends from other models. How a model performs has nothing to do with whether your backyard gets snow or not, or "the metro area" which could have much different conditions with small wobbles here and there.

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mikemurph44

mikemurph44

Posted
Posted

The fact that it doesnt snow in you`re backyard doesnt get the Euro to claim victory , ( Agian I love the Euro ) but it got toasted here . from 120 hrs out thru 48 it had the slp run due EAST off Hatt , inside 48 hrs it brought the low up 500 miles !

As it is there are NW suburbs of philly around the york may stand to get 2 inches of snow and CNJ possibly 1 -2 and the Euro to this minute still doesnt see that .

The NAM and GFS which I despise at times locked the centers position off the coast of AC and only in the last 12 hours shifted it 50 to 75 miles south and just so happened to weaken it as well .

You have to look at the overall picture I know some you babies saw the .50 - .75 by the NAM yesterday and got all excited like little girls , and now that you`re not going to see accumulating snow , you want to claim the Euro won . IT DIDNT . The Euro is a superior model , but moving 500 miles in 2 days that took 5 days to do so isnt a win . The fact we dont get an advisory snow is more to do with a weakening SW , not that the storm is off NC with WHIFF here like the Euro told us all week .

. Forget my opinion for a second, NWS Mt. Holly just said this, not me: 340 PM EST WED FEB 13 2013

WE HAVE REVIEWED IN SOME DETAIL FOUR DIFFERENT OPERATIONAL RUNS OF

THE ECMWF, NAM AND GFS FROM 11/00Z TO 13/12Z. REGARDING WEIGHTING

THE MODELS, WE HAVE GIVEN MOST WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF AND LEAST TO THE

NAM.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

. Forget my opinion for a second, NWS Mt. Holly just said this, not me: 340 PM EST WED FEB 13 2013

WE HAVE REVIEWED IN SOME DETAIL FOUR DIFFERENT OPERATIONAL RUNS OF

THE ECMWF, NAM AND GFS FROM 11/00Z TO 13/12Z. REGARDING WEIGHTING

THE MODELS, WE HAVE GIVEN MOST WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF AND LEAST TO THE

NAM.

 

Yes , and please read a little further when they say they still see a low end advisory snowfall for the counties they have mentioned , Doesnt that matter ?   Does the Euro see a low end advisory ?

 

MT HOLLY still has accumulating snow in the WWA  areas  ....  they have reduced QPF more in line with the Euro but the Euro took 7 days to get here , the GFS had the surface low off AC for 7 days , go back look , the GFS  missed by 75 miles .'OVER A WEEK AWAY .... I dont think i have ever seen the model do that .

Do you know when the Euro does that we send out press releases praising it ....  .

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Sampson

Sampson

Posted
Posted

This system is a perfect example of how one needs to use all the models to make an accurate forecast from 3-4 days out. The NAM, which is getting a lot of criticism here should have never been used to predict a final outcome at that range. What it did do, however, was illustrate how there would be more amplification with the southern vort, thus enabling the low to get far enough north to be a threat for us. At the time, both the gfs and euro were out to lunch in that regard. The gfs had the system, it was just well south of us. The euro had a disjointed mess that didnt remotely resemble where we are now.

My point is, if one were to take a blend of these depictions at that range, they'd have made a far better forecast than someone that leaned heavily on any one model. Lots of folks are disappointed today simply because they never took all of the indicators into account.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

. Forget my opinion for a second, NWS Mt. Holly just said this, not me: 340 PM EST WED FEB 13 2013

WE HAVE REVIEWED IN SOME DETAIL FOUR DIFFERENT OPERATIONAL RUNS OF

THE ECMWF, NAM AND GFS FROM 11/00Z TO 13/12Z. REGARDING WEIGHTING

THE MODELS, WE HAVE GIVEN MOST WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF AND LEAST TO THE

NAM.

There are very few mets out there who would give much weight to the NAM. :lol:

 

And again, you are conflating two separate issues. Mt. Holly forecasts for its zone only. They are not the HPC, which forecasts the storm as a whole and scores surface/500mb verifications and shifts across runs. For the storm as a whole and where its surface and upper air reflections would verify, the Euro bounced around like crazy and was inconsistent over the last few days. That's not disputable.

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted

What was more interesting from Mt. Holly the difference between NAM the ECMWF, in how the handled the jet dynamics. We have yet to see though, how much difference this makes in the end:

 

 

ON PREVIOUS RUNS, THE NAM WAS CARRYING A JET COUPLET THAT ENHANCED UPWARD VELOCITY, WHILE THE ECMWF WAS CARRYING A SINGLE JET AXIS WITH MULTIPLE JETLETS BUT NO COUPLET. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE WON THAT ARGUMENT. QPF VALUES FROM THE NAM (AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE GFS) HAVE COME DOWN PERHAPS IN RESPONSE. THE MODELS` DEPICTIONS OF LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE FORCING ARE OTHERWISE FAIRLY SIMILAR, AND WE TEND TO LEAN AGAINST THE RELATIVE ROBUSTNESS OF THE NAM WHERE IT MANIFESTS ITSELF.

 

 

 

 

 

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PB GFI

PB GFI

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Posted

Its 37/26 in Colts Neck the precip is 2 hrs away . Its not 45 , 850`s are very closed to 0 .

Its not going to take much once the sun goes down and the precip falls for any rain to go to snow and for CNJ to pick up accumulating snow .

MT HOLLY is telling you that , not me .

 

Now the NAM with its .50 - .75 was a joke , but in all honesty go back and look at all the post , we dismissed it and said cut it in half , but if .25 - . 30 falls and thats in line with what the shorter term models are spitting out now , thats 3 x more that the EURO printed out just 3 hours ago ( how the hell is that a victory ? ) . Look at the overall pic the US models from the edge of the envelopes pinned the SLP position , they were off by 75 miles , sh*t happens . But the Euro didnt win here .. And this is coming from its biggest fan .

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