ag3 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 less at bdr to? Same. 0z was .09". 12z euro is .08" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The slp and qpf field on SV maps looks further north than 0z. Agree. But the end result is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Apparently the Almighty Unquestionable Euro shifted north again this run. Now I guess we can all lock in a blizzard for tonight, as the trend is clear and Maximus Euro-stasius is on the move.. Huh? It is still showing a non event, the qpf did not change at all for us and a couple of areas went down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 . Huh? It is still showing a non event, the qpf did not change at all for us and a couple of areas went down From the New England board: Rollo Tomasi, on 13 Feb 2013 - 12:54, said: Who cares. The Euro just shifted 75 miles north at 18 hours. Whoops. I'm pretty sure it's not bone dry for you too, and it is running too dry already this run. Playing catchup. Meteorlogy vs modelogy as Kev says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 If anything is going to fall this evening, have the models or mets pinpointed the onset of the precip? I realize it may be a rapid onset but it's still pretty sunny out here in Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 41 pages of discussion that was basically always a minor event and one that was always leaning toward skirting to the south. so much wishcasting in that 38 post thread for this storm and the almost 20 page discussion on the non event despite the majority of the time no big storm was ever modeled. For a time most models besides the Euro were showing good potential for a moderate event. Storms don't have to be big in order to be discussed here. Oh and newsflash: nobody is forcing you to read these threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 From the New England board: Rollo Tomasi, on 13 Feb 2013 - 12:54, said: . Well that post is silly if it were too dry to start out and playing catchup it would have gotten wetter and shown more qpf, not kept it the same as last night or drier. Also, all of the other 12z runs since this morning have been adjusting drier. The other models are playing catchup to the euro if anything by adjusting their tracks and drying out, remember the euro was always the driest all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I guess the precip in the ohio valley means nothing for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I guess the precip in the ohio valley means nothing for us? as you can see from the observations from Ohio - the snow is kind of spotty with some stations not reporting any http://kamala.cod.edu/oh/latest.asus41.CLE.KCLE.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 as you can see from the observations from Ohio - the snow is kind of spotty with some stations not reporting any http://kamala.cod.edu/oh/latest.asus41.CLE.KCLE.html Ah okay so most of is virga then? I'm using the WxTap radar and when you look at it, it looks good on tape. I should have checked obs Thanks! Lets hope we can squeeze a good 1-2" out of this to keep the snowpack fresh or whats left of it haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 radar looks pretty good for a period of light rain later this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 radar looks pretty good for a period of light rain later this evening Surface is too warm. If we don't get heavier precip than just light stuff, kiss it goodbye. Expecting only bout an inch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Surface is too warm. If we don't get heavier precip than just light stuff, kiss it goodbye. Expecting only bout an inch here. The temperatures are going to start dropping soon as we lose sunlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The temperatures are going to start dropping soon as we lose sunlight. Not by much with cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 18z NAM looks to have NYC in the screw zone. Not even getting to 0.25". More east and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 HRRR is going bonkers which is surprising for this model...It's one of my favorite short term models, I would still trust it more within 9-12 hours, but here it is...Shows like 3-6" for Philly. In fact it's showing 2"/hr snows! And based on its radar it would be close for NYC Always seem to have a snow bias to me so for now, I won't give it much time, if it contues to show this and there is other short term support then it may be onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Quick question you guys think I will hit anything driving to Atlantic city tonight from long island? I know there forcast is for mainly rain. But not sure what it will be like in central jersy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 COLTS NECK 39 / 27 , Should change to snow this evening . MY HOLLY 1250 AFD . SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD AROUND MIDNIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES AROUND 700 PM BEFORE IT SCOOTS OUT TO SEA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. NEVERTHELESS, THE IDEA OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH STILL LOOKS GOOD. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF BEST SNOW GROWTH LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AT 700 PM. PRECIPITATION RATES MAY INCREASE AT THAT TIME PULLING COLD AIR DOWN FROM ALOFT. AS A RESULT, THE CHANGE TO SNOW MAY BE QUICK. THE AREA OF BEST SNOW GROWTH SHOULD DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REMAINING COUNTIES DURING THE HOURS BETWEEN 700 PM AND MIDNIGHT, HELPING TO CAUSE THE CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE CHANGE-OVER LINE MAY NOT REACH OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO COME TO AN END. AS A RESULT, WE ARE EXPECTING LITTLE OR NO SNOW IN SUSSEX COUNTY, DELAWARE OR CAPE MAY COUNTY, NEW JERSEY. WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE FAR UPPER DELMARVA UP INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD RECEIVE 2 INCHES OR LESS AS THEY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Quick question you guys think I will hit anything driving to Atlantic city tonight from long island? I know there forcast is for mainly rain. But not sure what it will be like in central jersy... no big deal..road salt will do the trick...it's warm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Upton just lowered amounts for NYC: Rain and snow likely before 2am, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 32. East wind 7 to 10 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Upton just lowered amounts for NYC: Rain and snow likely before 2am, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 32. East wind 7 to 10 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 All hi-res and I think all global models except the NAM had less than 0.1" for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Several reports of moderate and heavy snow in Ohio. It's too bad this area of forcing will be weakening and the developing coastal low will pull ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Went from 2-4 to 1-3 here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The mets at News 12 lower hudson valley now say a dusting at worse for rockland county, mostly snow showers tonight, nothing heavy. Boy did the euro nail this thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I have a feeling if anything I will get rain. I lost allot of snow today and it appears more will go later. We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 yeah, interesting that Upton lowered totals on their map again, but Mt. Holly did not and both maps are new (3:23 pm and 2:30 pm)... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The mets at News 12 lower hudson valley now say a dusting at worse for rockland county, mostly snow showers tonight, nothing heavy. Boy did the euro nail this thing The Euro showed absolutely nothing for runs, it does have stuff now though. Overall, the GFS picked it up better, rather than the Euro originally shifting this out east. The accuracy scores between models inside 24hrs are almost the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I have a feeling if anything I will get rain. I lost allot of snow today and it appears more will go later. We shall see... If we get light stuff it likely won't accumulate or will just be rain. I said last night that we would likely get either a half an inch or half a foot. Unfortunately the "half inch" is more likely to become reality. Too bad this one looks like it's yet another system that's being forced out to sea before getting together in time for us. SE New England might actually do fairly better than us because of this-notice the nice banding that gets set up in time for MA down by the Cape. The endless screaming, progressive pattern is just killing us. We really lucked out on the winter storm-just a little later to form and we would have been Philly with a few inches at most. We really need the upper air pattern to change so that the jet can slow down and stop shearing everything to crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The mets at News 12 lower hudson valley now say a dusting at worse for rockland county, mostly snow showers tonight, nothing heavy. Boy did the euro nail this thing The Euro didn't nail this, at all. We had little room for error, so a comparatively small move by the amped models means much more than a large move by a flat model. The Euro moved and flopped around considerably in the last few days. It has fits with this fast pattern as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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