bluewave Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 NAM says Game, Set, Match. Nothing more than a quick dusting, especially for NW areas. The 4km NAM had that solution on Monday while the regular NAM had the qpf bomb right over us. It also did much better with the blizzard last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 LOL-it has 16 runs in a row where it hits us and then shifts south at the last second--classic. Classic NAM, I finally have figured out that it's not even worth looking at, automatic toss from now on. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 euro is king euro is king yes, obviously.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Classic NAM, I finally have figured out that it's not even worth looking at, automatic toss from now on. -skisheep Time to ride the Euro, maybe we can sneak out a half inch or coating, bl is pretty warm so even that will be difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 This system reenforces the rule that many of us(including me) were breaking; if the EURO's not onboard, it ain't happening. It scored another big win here, and for the love of god can't they fix the NAM already? (GFS wasn't much better, had two runs 2 days ago with warning snow and unfortunatley we all bought it) -skisheep 100% agree. Even though the euro trended north a few days ago, it never really showed a decent hit for NYC, it only came north so far. Now all The other short range models have almost the same exact track as the Euro. If it doesn't show you getting it, most likely it isn't going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Expect to see the usual cutback by okx to accumulations less than half inch by noon.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 And the euro appears to have won, once again. Like I said yesterday, the euro showing zippo run after run was bad and now we see why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Eh, GFS/NAM maybe came south 30-60 miles from where they were 3/4 days ago, EURO came north hundreds of miles and completely changed its overall presentation. GFS/NAM overall much better than EURO this time....although that small shift might have a large effect on tangible weather in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Pay attention to models through 12z, but also take a look at the radar-snow seems to be making it a good way into IN when models had it dry not far from the Ohio River. Nowcasting becomes more important as we approach the event. This could still have some surprises when Atlantic moisture comes into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Time to ride the Euro, maybe we can sneak out a half inch or coating, bl is pretty warm so even that will be difficult. Honestly wouldn't be suprised to end up with nothing at this point, the EURO not doing anything overnight made it clear that the NAM and the GFS were going to come south. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 And the euro appears to have won, once again. Like I said yesterday, the euro showing zippo run after run was bad and now we see why People can also take a look at the pattern and determine what seems likely and what doesn't instead of going solely on "Euro cancel storm cancel" when the Euro has messed up a number of times this winter. It still will have messed this storm up even if it were to verify verbatim today because several days ago it had nearly no presence of any storm anywhere. The fast/progressive flow was always a threat here, but the involvement of southern energy finally made it more likely that appreciable snow could happen instead of endless minor clipper after clipper. And this storm still isn't over... lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I fell in love with this very potent s/w even as depicted by the nam at h7 I still think the qpf is off, all models agree now so apparently not, nice waste of a decent vort max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The storm didn't even start yet..a few models move south and it's "game over"? Unbelievable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 im waiting for the "its nowcast time" forget the model posts was I so wrong each and every time I said the NAM looked like crap yesterday....i dont think so. it looked bad and somehow saved itself in the later panels. either way - never doubt the euro until its proven wrong or moves in line with the other data... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 People can also take a look at the pattern and determine what seems likely and what doesn't instead of going solely on "Euro cancel storm cancel" when the Euro has messed up a number of times this winter. It still will have messed this storm up even if it were to verify verbatim today because several days ago it had nearly no presence of any storm anywhere. The fast/progressive flow was always a threat here, but the involvement of southern energy finally made it more likely that appreciable snow could happen instead of endless minor clipper after clipper. And this storm still isn't over... lol.Two things: storm hasn't happened yet. Second, the Sim radar for what would be current radar is off on the NAM (compare west Virginia and Ohio against NAM Sim radar ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 People can also take a look at the pattern and determine what seems likely and what doesn't instead of going solely on "Euro cancel storm cancel" when the Euro has messed up a number of times this winter. It still will have messed this storm up even if it were to verify verbatim today because several days ago it had nearly no presence of any storm anywhere. The fast/progressive flow was always a threat here, but the involvement of southern energy finally made it more likely that appreciable snow could happen instead of endless minor clipper after clipper. And this storm still isn't over... lol. People can also take a look at the pattern and determine what seems likely and what doesn't instead of going solely on "Euro cancel storm cancel" when the Euro has messed up a number of times this winter. It still will have messed this storm up even if it were to verify verbatim today because several days ago it had nearly no presence of any storm anywhere. The fast/progressive flow was always a threat here, but the involvement of southern energy finally made it more likely that appreciable snow could happen instead of endless minor clipper after clipper. And this storm still isn't over... lol. it messed in longer term....and it flipped to what the GFS showed, but this case is slightly different in that it never really budged...again, there is still time but all guidance has gone to the euro's camp, which makes me believe this isnt done going south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 And the euro appears to have won, once again. Like I said yesterday, the euro showing zippo run after run was bad and now we see why So then the Euro which showed nothing came a little bit north and the Nam which showed 2" - 4" went a little bit south and we wind up with an inch at most. Seems like a move toward each other. So why is that a win for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 So then the Euro which showed nothing came a little bit north and the Nam which showed 2" - 4" went a little bit south and we wind up with an inch at most. Seems like a move toward each other. So why is that a win for the Euro? This is a classic case of why consensus forecasting is often the best bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 100% agree. Even though the euro trended north a few days ago, it never really showed a decent hit for NYC, it only came north so far. Now all The other short range models have almost the same exact track as the Euro. If it doesn't show you getting it, most likely it isn't going to happen. Just goes to show that you can't rely on the GFS for a moderate storm when the Euro isn't showing it. When the Euro was a little too suppressed this weekend, it corrected north to a small event rather than the GFS moderate one. The good news for our models is that the 4KM NAM was more consistent with the Euro than any other piece of single guidance. Though the SREF means were always more suppressed. The 4km like with the Blizzard, is becoming the new EE rule with the Euro in certain situations. I am also very impressed with how the 4km did with several severe thunderstorm events last summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 im waiting for the "its nowcast time" forget the model posts was I so wrong each and every time I said the NAM looked like crap yesterday....i dont think so. it looked bad and somehow saved itself in the later panels. either way - never doubt the euro until its proven wrong or moves in line with the other data... Ummm, saying the Nam was gonna be crap, and having it end up decent, is wrong, regardless of the final outcome of the storm. Thats why all of this model interpretation while its coming out should be means for getting 5 posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 So then the Euro which showed nothing came a little bit north and the Nam which showed 2" - 4" went a little bit south and we wind up with an inch at most. Seems like a move toward each other. So why is that a win for the Euro? It's not. WHen you really come down to it, the more aggressive modeling probably did better even if this does end up a miss. We just had less room for error in terms of impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'd be more worried if the NAM juiced up QPF than the latter. In Dec, it juiced everyone up to well over .5 and we all received .3 or less with mostly rain. As far as EC goes... I'm still waiting for my 16" inches it promised me last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Pretty incredible to see the GFS and the Euro in nearly the exact same position in the 8-10 day threat. This "Bowling Ball" scenario was the way Boxing Day was first depicted. You can also add the GGEM and the NOAGPS through 180 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 im waiting for the "its nowcast time" forget the model posts was I so wrong each and every time I said the NAM looked like crap yesterday....i dont think so. it looked bad and somehow saved itself in the later panels. either way - never doubt the euro until its proven wrong or moves in line with the other data... yes you were wrong about last nights NAM..and before you kill this event,lets see how it unfolds..somebody who gave up on last weekends blizzard doesn't have the right to pat themselves on the back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'd be more worried if the NAM juiced up QPF than the latter. In Dec, it juiced everyone up to well over .5 and we all received .3 or less with mostly rain. As far as EC goes... I'm still waiting for my 16" inches it promised me last weekend. Per NWS Mt. Holly in the Philly thread: The NAM is still showing the potential for a heavier band, which looks to be near PHL then to Ocean/Monmouth counties. The 700 mb frontogenetic forcing looks better then at 850 mb, however both really get going as it shifts east of the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 yes you were wrong about last nights NAM..and before you kill this event,lets see how it folds..somebody who gave up on last weekends blizzard doesn't have the right to pat themselves on the back yes you were wrong about last nights NAM..and before you kill this event,lets see how it folds..somebody who gave up on last weekends blizzard doesn't have the right to pat themselves on the back it wasnt a blizzard for me or anyone west of me and I never "gave up" on the storm...i posted the map about the warm tongue and I was right there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Per NWS Mt. Holly in the Philly thread: The NAM is still showing the potential for a heavier band, which looks to be near PHL then to Ocean/Monmouth counties. The 700 mb frontogenetic forcing looks better then at 850 mb, however both really get going as it shifts east of the NJ coast. Yes, this feature will likely shift 20 mi in either direction so despite lower QPF in model, this should be an interesting storm to watch and see who gets that band. Someone will likely get a 5" stripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yes, this feature will likely shift 20 mi in either direction so despite lower QPF in model, this should be an interesting storm to watch and see who gets that band. Someone will likely get a 5" stripe. DT's final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 DT's final call Looks identical to Kocin's HPC map yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 DT's final call all or nothing with that man. often brilliant analysis, equally so maps with subtle details but then at others he will issue maps that make no sesnse and above all he is often rude to many ( NO THX.. there other & better online forcasters) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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