earthlight Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 03z SREF look like they may have actually ticked a hair north and west...but in general remain the same with the 0.50" contour near NYC. 0.75" for much of the NJ Shore up to Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 06z NAM and GFS lowered QPF amounts... OTOH, Upton has now issued WWA for Suffolk and Nassau: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY340 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013...SNOWY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...NYZ078>081-179-131800-/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.130213T2200Z-130214T1100Z/NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHERN NASSAU-340 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO6 AM EST THURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHERADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6AM EST THURSDAY.* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES ON LONG ISLAND.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES...ONLY IF HEAVY SNOW BANDING WORKS NORTH INTO THE AREA.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES...ONLY IF HEAVY SNOW BANDING WORKS NORTH INTO THE AREA.* TIMING...THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THIS EVENING RUSH INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END BY THE THURSDAY MORNING RUSH...ROADS WILL STILL BE SNOW COVERED.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...ORFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 6z rgem is wetter than the 00z run. Brings the 7.5 mm line into the city and the 10 mm line into central new jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 6z rgem is wetter than the 00z run. Brings the 7.5 mm line into the city and the 10 mm line into central new jersey. Snow maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 both the 6z nam and gfs are drier further south.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Snow maps? Total snow on the 6z run. It's still one of the warmest models as of now, so a portion of that falls as rain. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemreg&run=06&type=SN&hi=000&hf=048〈=en&map=qc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 A couple of the latest model runs including the sref are actually better, giving us 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 6z rgem is mostly rain for NJ south of Sandy Hook, and also for coastal LI. It's also mostly rain for the NYC boroughs, south of the LIE. Snow bullseye is from Western Queens, NYC to EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Based on what I'm seeing from SPC Mesoscale Analysis, the GFS and NAM seem to be little weak and south with this system. The ECMWF even moreso. Just too flat, at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Please try and understand what you are looking at. Ths system did not shift south on the nam or the gfs. The surface low is still east of AC. Only diff is its progged at 1000mb. Not 996 that the previous runs showed. So the precip field looks less robust on the 6z. I wouldnt worry about 4 shouldnt kill the 2 to 4 around here. Lets see if the 12z deepens it back and match the radar against the initializations. And u will get ur answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 both the 6z nam and gfs are drier further south.... And the RGEM and SREF bumped north a little. This will probably come down to nowcasting and seeing where the main snow banding sets up. I think we're good for a few inches hopefully. Maybe this could surprise on the high end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 both the 6z nam and gfs are drier further south.... And the RGEM and SREF bumped north a little. This will probably come down to nowcasting and seeing where the main snow banding sets up. I think we're good for a few inches hopefully. Maybe this could surprise on the high end. I agree. I still think we see 3-4" here with amounts up to 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 And the RGEM and SREF bumped north a little. This will probably come down to nowcasting and seeing where the main snow banding sets up. I think we're good for a few inches hopefully. Maybe this could surprise on the high end. Start time for us JM1220 on south nass coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 And the RGEM and SREF bumped north a little. This will probably come down to nowcasting and seeing where the main snow banding sets up. I think we're good for a few inches hopefully. Maybe this could surprise on the high end. New srefs got drier. .25" line barely to NYC now. .50" line south of Sandy Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 New srefs got drier. .25" line barely to NYC now. .50" line south of Sandy Hook. Big shift south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Big shift south... Unfortuately there accuracy is terrible. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Unfortuately there accuracy is terrible. Rossi Well, the euro is paltry, and the nam and gfs and srefs have cut back. The ggem is rain south of nyc so what should we hang our hats on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Well, the euro is paltry, and the nam and gfs and srefs have cut back. The ggem is rain south of nyc so what should we hang our hats on? 12z nam/GFS let it play out - although where I am in C. NJ we should be in that 3 or 4 inch band. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 12z nam/GFS let it play out - although where I am in C. NJ we should be in that 3 or 4 inch band. Rossi Good luck down there Rossi hope everything works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Looks like the NAM is going to be way south. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 euro is king Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 New NAM is terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 NAM says Game, Set, Match. Nothing more than a quick dusting, especially for NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 New NAM is terrible. A couple inches for PHL and a snow shower for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 shocking except, not at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Looks like the NAM is going to be way south. -skisheep LOL-it has 16 runs in a row where it hits us and then shifts south at the last second--classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 LOL-it has 16 runs in a row where it hits us and then shifts south at the last second--classic. euro is king yep. I never bit based on it not having anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 This system reenforces the rule that many of us(including me) were breaking; if the EURO's not onboard, it ain't happening. It scored another big win here, and for the love of god can't they fix the NAM already? (GFS wasn't much better, had two runs 2 days ago with warning snow and unfortunatley we all bought it) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 If the Euro somehow turns out right after every model went against it, it deserves huge props. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 There you have it. The NAM caved to the euro. 12z NAM totals. EXACTLY like the euro:NYC: .11" (euro: .11")ISP: .18" (euro .17")BDR: .09" (euro .10") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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