Canadian GGEM to get "once in a decade" upgrade

[earthlight]

From the Canadian Met office..

 

MAJOR UPGRADE TO THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM GDPS-
VERSION 3.0.0) AT THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE
ON WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 13, 2013, STARTING WITH THE 1200 UTC RUN, THE
CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE (CMC) OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
OF CANADA (MSC) WILL IMPLEMENT VERSION 3.0.0 OF ITS GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (GDPS), HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS
GDPS-3.0.0. THE MAIN CHANGES OF THIS UPDATE ARE:

- CHANGES TO THE 4D-VAR DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM: - THE USE OF
ADDITIONAL REMOTE SENSING DATA: - AN INCREASE IN HORIZONTAL
RESOLUTION FROM 33 TO 25 KM: - IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE GEM MODEL
PHYSICS: - AND 1200 UTC RUNS NOW DONE TO 240 HOURS AS FOR 0000 UTC
RUNS.
OBJECTIVE SCORES DONE IN DEVELOPMENT AND PARALLEL RUN PHASES SHOW
IMPROVEMENTS IN THE FORECASTS WITH MOST METRICS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE ATMOSPHERE, IN PARTICULAR OVER NORTH AMERICA IN WINTER. THESE
IMPROVEMENTS ARE OF AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE USUALLY SEEN ONLY ONCE IN
A DECADE. A SUBJECTIVE EVALUATION BY OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGISTS AT
CMC CONFIRMED THOSE IMPROVEMENTS. OTHER FORECAST SYSTEMS WHICH
DEPEND ON GDPS OUTPUT ALSO BENEFIT FROM THE GDPS-3.0.0. CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE REGIONAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (RDPS) TO
HARMONIZE IT WITH THE NEW GDPS, AND THE RDPS FORECASTS ARE ALSO
IMPROVED AS A RESULT, SO ITS VERSION NUMBER IS ALSO INCREASED TO
3.1.0, AND IS HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS RDPS-3.1.0.

[Zir0b]

Is the RGEM being updated also? 

[Sn0waddict]

Is the RGEM being updated also? 

Didn't the RGEM already use 4DVAR?

[simpsonsbuff]

Didn't the RGEM already use 4DVAR?

 Fairly sure it does. 

[hm8]

Is the RGEM being updated also?

Pretty sure that's what it's talking about when in mentions rdps

[NaoPos]

meanwhile, we're cutting NWS offices/budgets..

[CIK62]

Shouldn't the wording 'subjective evaluation'   be 'an objective evaluation'?

[ace0927]

meanwhile, we're cutting NWS offices/budgets..

well ACORN needs the money...

[Sundog]

well ACORN needs the money...

Too bad they don't exist anymore. So who's the money going to now?

Nice try Ace.

[Heisy]

So did todays 12z RGEM use the upgrade? 

[ag3]

The ggem did.

Graphics are sharper and isobars added to precip maps.

Currently out to hour 60:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_060.jpg

[donsutherland1]

From the Canadian Met office..

 

MAJOR UPGRADE TO THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM GDPS-

VERSION 3.0.0) AT THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE

ON WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 13, 2013, STARTING WITH THE 1200 UTC RUN, THE

CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE (CMC) OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

OF CANADA (MSC) WILL IMPLEMENT VERSION 3.0.0 OF ITS GLOBAL

DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (GDPS), HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS

GDPS-3.0.0. THE MAIN CHANGES OF THIS UPDATE ARE:

- CHANGES TO THE 4D-VAR DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM: - THE USE OF

ADDITIONAL REMOTE SENSING DATA: - AN INCREASE IN HORIZONTAL

RESOLUTION FROM 33 TO 25 KM: - IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE GEM MODEL

PHYSICS: - AND 1200 UTC RUNS NOW DONE TO 240 HOURS AS FOR 0000 UTC

RUNS.

OBJECTIVE SCORES DONE IN DEVELOPMENT AND PARALLEL RUN PHASES SHOW

IMPROVEMENTS IN THE FORECASTS WITH MOST METRICS THROUGHOUT MOST OF

THE ATMOSPHERE, IN PARTICULAR OVER NORTH AMERICA IN WINTER. THESE

IMPROVEMENTS ARE OF AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE USUALLY SEEN ONLY ONCE IN

A DECADE. A SUBJECTIVE EVALUATION BY OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGISTS AT

CMC CONFIRMED THOSE IMPROVEMENTS. OTHER FORECAST SYSTEMS WHICH

DEPEND ON GDPS OUTPUT ALSO BENEFIT FROM THE GDPS-3.0.0. CHANGES

WERE MADE TO THE REGIONAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (RDPS) TO

HARMONIZE IT WITH THE NEW GDPS, AND THE RDPS FORECASTS ARE ALSO

IMPROVED AS A RESULT, SO ITS VERSION NUMBER IS ALSO INCREASED TO

3.1.0, AND IS HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS RDPS-3.1.0.

Earthlight,

 

The text states, in part, "...and 1200 UTC runs now done to 240 hours..." EC's website (http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html) only goes out to 144 hours. Do you know if there's a public link to 240 hours?

[ag3]

Earthlight,

The text states, in part, "...and 1200 UTC runs now done to 240 hours..." EC's website (http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html) only goes out to 144 hours. Do you know if there's a public link to 240 hours?

Ewall and meteocentre go out to hour 180.

Hopefully, they update it to hour 240 soon.

[ag3]

Correction.

Meteocentre has it out to hour 240 now. They just updated it.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=PNM&hh=000&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=000&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en

[uofmiami]

Earthlight,

 

The text states, in part, "...and 1200 UTC runs now done to 240 hours..." EC's website (http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html) only goes out to 144 hours. Do you know if there's a public link to 240 hours?

Don,

 

This one works for me:

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_panel.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na〈=en

[donsutherland1]

Correction.

Meteocentre has it out to hour 240 now. They just updated it.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=PNM&hh=000&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=000&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en

Many thanks.

[ag3]

The 12z euro and the upgraded 12z ggem have nearly the IDENTICAL solution for the Feb. 22nd threat.

Cutter and redevelopment over NYC.

 

It's quite amazing how exact they are, so far out.

[earthlight]

The 12z euro and the upgraded 12z ggem have nearly the IDENTICAL solution for the Feb. 22nd threat.

Cutter and redevelopment over NYC.

 

It's quite amazing how exact they are, so far out.

 

You aren't kidding. Secondary development/surface low is in nearly the exact same spot at 240 hr.

[TUweathermanDD]

You aren't kidding. Secondary development/surface low is in nearly the exact same spot at 240 hr.

Hey earthlight, is it true the NOGAPS is getting an upgrade? NAVGEM I hear. 

[bluewave]

Major upgrade to the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) version 3.0.0 at the Canadian Meteorological Centre

On Wednesday February 13th 2013, starting with the 1200 UTC run the Meteorological Service of Canada's Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) will upgrade its Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) to version 3.0.0.

In this upgrade, major changes are brought to both the assimilation (Ensemble Kalman Filter or ENKF) and forecast components of the system. The ENKF is used to supply initial conditions to the GEPS, while the forecast component provides forecasts out to 16 days using the Canadian Global Environmental Multi-scale model (GEM). Those forecasts are shared with North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) partners, hence changes to our system will have an impact on the NAEFS forecasts.

Changes common to both the assimilation and forecast components include: a newer version 4.4.1 of the GEM model with improved physics; reduction of the model time step from 30 minutes to 20 minutes; use of a filtered topography; and the use now of only one surface scheme (ISBA) (the previous scheme Force-Restore is no longer used).

Changes installed uniquely into the data assimilation component ENKF include: horizontal localization length scale now increasing with height; higher horizontal resolution (now ~66km); higher vertical resolution increased from 58 to 74 levels with the model top remaining at 2 hPa; an increased volume of AMSU radiance observations; and improved observation bias correction coming from the newer version 3.0.0 of the GDPS

Changes installed uniquely into the forecast component include: adjustments to how physics tendencies are perturbed for convective precipitation; the physics tendencies perturbations are applied at every level except the very last one; addition of diffusion into the advection procedure; perturbation of the bulk drag coefficient in the orographic blocking scheme; and fine tuning of the adjustment factor alpha of the stochastic kinetic energy backscattering scheme.

ENKF version 3.0.0 results in overall significant positive impacts on the analyses and trial fields of winds and temperature for almost the entire atmospheric column with some degradation in the bias of the zonal wind component at high levels. The geopotential heights error standard deviations are lowered in the troposphere. The biases of geopotential heights and temperature are reduced significantly.

The forecast component of GEPS-3.0.0 brings a major improvement in upper air 16–day forecasts in the extra-tropics. There is less spread in the forecast of the new system while the forecasts are better.

The upper air forecast from the Regional Ensemble Prediction System (REPS) will benefit significantly from having better initial and lateral boundary conditions from the GEPS-3.0.0.

The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) upper air forecasts will also improve significantly for day 1 to day 10 lead times with the contribution of GEPS-3.0.0.

Hardware improvements coinciding with this implementation will result in some products being ready between 10 to 120 minutes sooner than their present time of production.

 

A copy of the official note announcing the implementation of these changes along with information on verification work leading up to this implementation is available at this link.

A technical note with many more details on this change is also available at this link.

You can also access the GEPS products page in this CMC Product Guide by clicking here

[TUweathermanDD]

bluewave, see my post to Earthlight about the new nogaps upgrade? 

[bluewave]

bluewave, see my post to Earthlight about the new nogaps upgrade? 

Do you have a link with the details?

[TUweathermanDD]

Do you have a link with the details?

Look it up, its on their site. A member of our forum said it was being upgraded to the new NAVGEM. I'd look for that, I tried but couldn't tell when it was going operational. 

[patrick05]

Look it up, its on their site. A member of our forum said it was being upgraded to the new NAVGEM. I'd look for that, I tried but couldn't tell when it was going operational. 

 

yeah i just noticed this too on FNMOC; replaced the NOGAPS with NAVGEM.. a quick google search led me to this ppt which looks to be from the FNMOC made a couple of years ago:

 

NAVGEM replaces the NOGAPS dynamic core with a Semi-

Lagrangian/Semi-Implicit formulation.

• T359L42 NAVGEM is running in real-time at FNMOC in the alpha

developmental environment.

• NAVGEM is initialized by NAVDAS-AR, including neew satellite variational

bias correction.

• Physics is largely the same as NOGAPS, except for stability constraints on

the cumulus momentum changes and the gravity wave drag changes.

• Tests are ongoing with parts of GFS physics, RTM radiation, Schmidt’s

cloud physics, changes to the vertical flux and Emanuel cumulus

parameterization, and Kim/Doyle gravity wave drag.

• The code is MPI optimized for LINUX (not IBM) platforms.

 

 

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:6ONrnBp-FmIJ:www.ofcm.gov/copc/meetings/2011-01/01-FNMOC_COPC_Command_Update_2011_COv1.pdf+&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESiBKdlN1EBsY7-PBiRf0O0NF4cCA6wV_Rn6ddDS0bIPPGG1BVmhW0KIq7koYnwfA4gOOMMzpKE4zub8jWET4Sk1sWkUT5qLG6kHK5bvIA-nx_sTeCUNKxACY7tk_7og6wq_SfVG&sig=AHIEtbQyvSTdzEHlKWJxjFrEK61PNRGqLA

[sn0w]

I know it hasn't been that long since the upgrade but has there been any noticeable improvement in accuracy since the upgrade?  Or is it too soon to tell?

[ag3]

I know it hasn't been that long since the upgrade but has there been any noticeable improvement in accuracy since the upgrade? Or is it too soon to tell?

Still an erratic model.

No doubt.