Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Pretty sure it goes in the 0z suite Yay! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Pretty much unanimous agreement with the 18z mems at 72hrs, there goes our potential big dog off the SE Coast, trough could not tap it in time... Still a few, 3 or 4, that indicate development associated with energy coming down, P009 gets the 18z GFS award today. congrats 009, you earned it.\ Oh yes, I'm all aboard the #9 train. That's a dream run for most of the South and a true Big Dog in NC. Looks like some mixing issues from the Triad south and east early on, but it would be a significant snow for almost all of us. http://raleighwx.ame...sp009p06096.gif http://raleighwx.ame...sp009p06102.gif http://raleighwx.ame...sp009p06108.gif http://raleighwx.ame...sp009p06114.gif http://raleighwx.ame...sp009p06120.gif http://raleighwx.ame...sp009p06126.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Pretty sure it goes in the 0z suite Did the Canadian stick with that cutter solution? Talk about being "out to lunch".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 Oh yes, I'm all aboard the #9 train. That's a dream run for most of the South and a true Big Dog in NC. Looks like some mixing issues from the Triad south and east early on, but it would be a significant snow for almost all of us. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zensp009p06096.gif'>http://raleighwx.ame...sp009p06096.gifhttp://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zensp009p06102.gif'>http://raleighwx.ame...sp009p06102.gifhttp://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zensp009p06108.gif'>http://raleighwx.ame...sp009p06108.gifhttp://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zensp009p06114.gif'>http://raleighwx.ame...sp009p06114.gifhttp://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zensp009p06120.gif'>http://raleighwx.ame...sp009p06120.gifhttp://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zensp009p06126.gif'>http://raleighwx.ame...sp009p06126.gif It nearly looks meteorologically impossible until it gets to the coast. How can the 850 line be south of the low. Nice run but mega lol. Looks like a low pressure setup in Canada the first few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 All the stuff about the recon flight is interesting, but when will the data be ingested into the models? 0Zs tonight? 12Zs tomorrow? Anybody know? You'll know when the run is more accurately incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 You'll know when the run is more accurately incorrect. Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Did the Canadian stick with that cutter solution? Talk about being "out to lunch".... Yep, but its ensembles are all offshore, Canadian maritime type deal at 108, crazy to see a model such an outlier within its own suite! Want to see the difference between 4D Var and the GFS (3D), check out the res for both, 12z run today, +93 hours... ECMWF GFS Just as the blind squirrel (GFS) sometimes finds a nut, my money is always on the EC sniffing out the lots of energy, interaction, cluster flip scenarios. Second would be the UK, the resolution and computational muscle behind the super computers across the pond is no match for our best of show. Wish it was different, another disco, but the resources have not been allocated to change it. For the math guys, those with a little bit of linear algebra, and basic calc, 4D Var for dummies http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/events/adjoint_workshop-8/present/Sunday/Kepert1.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yep, but its ensembles are all offshore, Canadian maritime type deal at 108, crazy to see a model such an outlier within its own suite! Want to see the difference between 4D Var and the GFS (3D), check out the res for both, 12z run today, +93 hours... ECMWF 12zecdvar.JPG GFS Just as the blind squirrel (GFS) sometimes finds a nut, my money is always on the EC sniffing out the lots of energy, interaction, cluster flip scenarios. Second would be the UK, the resolution and computational muscle behind the super computers across the pond is no match for our best of show. Wish it was different, another disco, but the resources have not been allocated to change it. For the math guys, those with a little bit of linear algebra, and basic calc, 4D Var for dummies Great disco today Chris, we need you around more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The nogaps uses the 4d-var also, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yep, but its ensembles are all offshore, Canadian maritime type deal at 108, crazy to see a model such an outlier within its own suite! Want to see the difference between 4D Var and the GFS (3D), check out the res for both, 12z run today, +93 hours... ECMWF 12zecdvar.JPG GFS 12zgfsdvar.JPG Just as the blind squirrel (GFS) sometimes finds a nut, my money is always on the EC sniffing out the lots of energy, interaction, cluster flip scenarios. Second would be the UK, the resolution and computational muscle behind the super computers across the pond is no match for our best of show. Wish it was different, another disco, but the resources have not been allocated to change it. For the math guys, those with a little bit of linear algebra, and basic calc, 4D Var for dummies 4dvar.JPG http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/events/adjoint_workshop-8/present/Sunday/Kepert1.pdf ah, I guess that's why the energy over TX on the gfs isn't as apparent. The NAM and GGEM both have plenty of it over texas at 84 hours...when the GFS is barely there or it's "absent" or not hi-res enough to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The nogaps uses the 4d-var also, correct? Hybrid version I believe, the NOGAPS is primarily a wave model, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Great disco today Chris, we need you around more often. I appreciate you not quoting my images, true veteran! Folks, when quoting images or long text, please cut out the bulk of it, helps to keep the wear down on the scroll wheel as we are viewing pages. Hard to say where we stand currently man, I would like to see greater variability in the ens mems, that would indicate the initial conditions are more subject to change as t is stepped, and in honesty, great consensus for a non-show. As we have seen in times past, we are kind of entering this dark area inside day 5 where the guidance has difficulty picking up on energy coming out of Canada, add to that a complete cluster with parcels interacting over the central Plains day 3.5 - 4, still enough to pique ones interest. As you know, it is much easier to get these OTS tracks trend back west, closer to the gulf stream, in the home stretch compared to taking an Apps runner at day 4 or 5, and pushing it to the coast come verification. I tried to illustrate with my post above the amount of variability even in the most accurate weather model on the planet run to run. While the changes may seem insignificant with result to the final solution, the model is arriving at such with different factors weighing in. 96hrs out, we have what 2 or 3 days ago was a broad trough, now appearing sharper and maybe not as deep as originally advertised. Tilt is currently projected to be positive turning neutral over GA, maybe neg thereafter. Need to back that orientation west 200-300 miles, or more, not out of the realm at this range, the amount of lee-way given the weakening ridge out west does seem limited though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I appreciate you not quoting my images, true veteran! Folks, when quoting images or long text, please cut out the bulk of it, helps to keep the wear down on the scroll wheel as we are viewing pages. Hard to say where we stand currently man, I would like to see greater variability in the ens mems, that would indicate the initial conditions are more subject to change as t is stepped, and in honesty, great consensus for a non-show. As we have seen in times past, we are kind of entering this dark area inside day 5 where the guidance has difficulty picking up on energy coming out of Canada, add to that a complete cluster with parcels interacting over the central Plains day 3.5 - 4, still enough to pique ones interest. As you know, it is much easier to get these OTS tracks trend back west, closer to the gulf stream, in the home stretch compared to taking an Apps runner at day 4 or 5, and pushing it to the coast come verification. I tried to illustrate with my post above the amount of variability even in the most accurate weather model on the planet run to run. While the changes may seem insignificant with result to the final solution, the model is arriving at such with different factors weighing in. 96hrs out, we have what 2 or 3 days ago was a broad trough, now appearing sharper and maybe not as deep as originally advertised. Tilt is currently projected to be positive turning neutral over GA, maybe neg thereafter. Need to back that orientation west 200-300 miles, or more, not out of the realm at this range, the amount of lee-way given the weakening ridge out west does seem limited though. Well as usual every model outside of the Euro wants to paint our energy different on every run just look at the NAM @45 compared to the NAM @18z. Vort up north is juiced and energy in the west is just weak glob but a bigger weak glob than 18z at the same time. So you gotta wonder if those little changes will have an affect later on as the pieces come into play later on. I guess what is keeping me excited is just the flow all winter. It seems that storms have just had a lot more moisture than modeled when there is something there. The game is on and it's gonna come down to the finish line before we know who wins. Certainly not expecting much that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 00z runs will be big seeing as they have some fresh data ingested. The good thing is that we aren't THAT far off from an event, just need the trends to start coming in our favor soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Still seems like h5 at 60 is really trying to dig a little more comparing 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Trough a touch sharper and tilted a bit better at 72, but also everything further east. West ridge not very impressive. This isn't enough to save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yea unfortunately looked promising for a little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Trough a touch sharper and tilted a bit better at 72, but also everything further east. West ridge not very impressive. This isn't enough to save us. Actually looks very similar to 18z GFS at 5h at 84. This one is fading fast. Hopefully we'll get some miracle tonight on the euro or the models pick something up in the upcoming days cause if not this one might be DOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Definitely sharpening up at 84 hour with s/w digging down toward the Arklatex. Trough axis awfully far east, though, and still positive tilt. Would have to really work hard to get negative in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 ...and after this, if this doesn't manifest...it may next winter for the Carolina Piedmont? Or, is this truly too defeatist??! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Sorry folks....It might be about that time........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Actually looks very similar to 18z GFS at 5h at 84. This one is fading fast. Hopefully we'll get some miracle tonight on the euro or the models pick something up in the upcoming days cause if not this one might be DOA. Why are people saying this after the trend on today's Euro? It went from showing no low at all, to a somewhat substantial one that blossoms, ATM, a bit too late. Who cares if the 12z GFS backed down a little bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Why are people saying this after the trend on today's Euro? It went from showing no low at all, to a somewhat substantial one that blossoms, ATM, a bit too late. Who cares if the 12z GFS backed down a little bit? I agree the focus should be on the euro no the gfs...in other words, gfs runs should not "cancel" this storm. Phase was late on the euro and imo looked a little off with the northern stream energy so far west, the timing of everything is still way off on most models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I agree the focus should be on the euro no the gfs...in other words, gfs runs should not "cancel" this storm. Phase was late on the euro and imo looked a little off with the northern stream energy so far west, the timing of everything is still way off on most models. Yeah, the Euro isn't perfect, but it is a sign that the models haven't converged yet. This will be one of those things where we have to wait for the shortwaves to land before the models stabilize. 60% chance they stabilize out to sea and 40% chance not, but definitely not no chance. I've seen enough of these come back to life in the last 48-72 hours to know that we are throwing in the towel way too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Um, whoever you are, could you please get word to Widre that we are all thinking of him and are praying that whomever has hijacked his computer will return access to him as soon as possible. Thanks. Yeah, the Euro isn't perfect, but it is a sign that the models haven't converged yet. This will be one of those things where we have to wait for the shortwaves to land before the models stabilize. 60% chance they stabilize out to sea and 40% chance not, but definitely not no chance. I've seen enough of these come back to life in the last 48-72 hours to know that we are throwing in the towel way too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 00z pops a minor low ahead of time and scoots it out to sea. Yet another solution in as many runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Btw, the 0z gfs is a no go. Wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Btw, the 0z gfs is a no go. Wide right. It's a different storm entirely, so not exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Um, whoever you are, could you please get word to Widre that we are all thinking of him and are praying that whomever has hijacked his computer will return access to him as soon as possible. Thanks. I'm getting concerned too! However I do agree with Widre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 It's a different storm entirely, so not exactly. Imo with the trough so far east before going neutral or negative the sfc low will have to be located OTS. Edit...There it is at hr 99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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