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WidreMann told us it was gonna snow thread

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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WeSuck

WeSuck

Posted
Posted

Yep NAM was certainly interesting @84.  Gotta see where the DGEX takes it.  You would think a phase a neg tilt would be coming up over the 24 hours out of the NAM. Gotta see if the NAM can play the victor yet again. 

 I really don't want to feel like I am reading the Mid Atlantic thread but the DGEX being thrown around is killing me haha. Regardless, the NAM would be  interesting if it happened verbatim.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

RAH:

 

NWP GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IN HANDLINGTHE TIMING AND POSSIBLE PHASING OF THESE WAVES ACROSS THE EASTERNCONUS WHILE INDICATING THAT PHASING/CYCLOGENESIS WAS LIKELYOFFSHORE. RECENT GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT VARIED BUT THEDETERMINISTIC 12Z GUIDANCE WAS PERHAPS CONVERGING TO A VERY LIMITEDQPF EVENT NEAR THE COAST. RECENT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE GFS ANDEC...NOTABLY THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST A MORE PHASED SYSTEM CLOSERTO THE COAST. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID THE QPF GUIDANCE NOTES AWOEFULLY LIGHT EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND THERE REMAINS ENOUGHUNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FORSATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE GRADIENT OF POPSINDICATING HIGHER POPS IN EAST/SOUTHEAST LOCATIONS. THE AIR MASS ISQUITE COLD AND WOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT SNOW IN MOSTLOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERERAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULDREACH THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SO TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAINABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT IN MOSTLOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST. COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHSIN THE LOW TO MID 40S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THEMID TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT.
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jmundie

jmundie

Posted
Posted

Yep NAM was certainly interesting @84.  Gotta see where the DGEX takes it.  You would think a phase a neg tilt would be coming up over the 24 hours out of the NAM. Gotta see if the NAM can play the victor yet again. 

 

 

I'm pretty sure that the DGEX is the 84 hour GFS run with the NAMs computer. So basically like a higher resolution GFS from 90-192.

 

From The Ewall site

 

 

 

The Downscaled GFS with ETA Extension model or DGEX model is a 192-hour, high resolution version of the WRF model. The DGEX model run begins at hour 84 (the final hour of the WRF model) and ends at hour 192. The DGEX model gathers its information from the previous run of the GFS model and runs the model out to 192 hours. The DGEX model is run twice a day at 06UTC and 18UTC. The DGEX model is only available for the eastern portion of the country on the 40km grid. The DGEX model is located on the left side of the e-Wall in the “Extras” section as shown below in figure 1.

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NGaWxNerd

NGaWxNerd

Posted
Posted

How much data new data is going to be ingested into the 0z model suite tonight?  I believe we had some reconnaissance flights today and some shortwaves are moving over land into British Columbia presently.

Dacula posted the recon flight information earlier today, I'm not sure what the turn around time is on that before it is ingested into the model runs. I still think we have to let this current energy move on it's merry way before we have a clearer picture for the weekend.

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NGaWxNerd

NGaWxNerd

Posted
Posted 
TODAY:000NOUS42 KNHC 101734REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1230 PM EST SUN 10 FEBRUARY 2013SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)         VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013         WSPOD NUMBER.....12-072I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS    1. FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 49--       A. P10/ DROP 6 (45.0N 159.0W)/ 12/0000Z       B NOAA9 08WSC TRACK10       C. 11/1900Z       D. 13 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED       E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 12/0600Z    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE       A. P23/ DROP 8 (47.0N 175.0W)/ 13/0000Z$JWP

 

DAY 2

 

 

000NOUS42 KNHC 111611REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1110 AM EST MON 11 FEBRUARY 2013SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)         VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013         WSPOD NUMBER.....12-073I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS    1. FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 49--       A. P23/ DROP 8 (47.0N 175.0W)/ 13/0000Z       B  NOAA9 09WSC TRACK23       C. 12/1900Z       D. 18 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED       E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 13/0600Z    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE       A. P9/ DROP 7 / 14/0000Z    3. REMARKS: TRACK P10 WILL BE FLOWN TODAY AS       DETAILED ON WSPOD 12-072.$JWP

Just a re-post for those smart enough to make heads or tails of timing on this.

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

NOAA 49 is is on Track 23 over the ocean now:

As of the last observation at 23:08:30Z, the plane's...

Direction of Travel: SSW (202°)
Location: 1,073 miles (1,727 km) to the SW (232°) from Anchorage, AK, USA.

 

Last Dropsonde Report

 

roduct: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 23:02Z
Aircraft: Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) (Reg. Num. N49RF)
Mission: Flying a winter storm mission (flight in the North Central Pacific basin)
Mission Identifier: Track23 
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 05

Part A...



Date: Near the closest hour of 23Z on the 12th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 200mb
Coordinates: 52.5N 168.0W
Location: 910 miles (1,464 km) to the SW (229°) from Anchorage, AK, USA.
Marsden Square: 197 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1006mb (29.71 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 0.8°C (33.4°F) Approximately -9°C (16°F) 205° (from the SSW) 1 knots (1 mph) 1000mb 45m (148 ft) 0.4°C (32.7°F) Approximately -9°C (16°F) 215° (from the SW) 2 knots (2 mph) 925mb 663m (2,175 ft) -5.7°C (21.7°F) -10.5°C (13.1°F) 275° (from the W) 3 knots (3 mph) 850mb 1,320m (4,331 ft) -8.9°C (16.0°F) Approximately -33°C (-27°F) 215° (from the SW) 8 knots (9 mph) 700mb 2,804m (9,199 ft) -13.5°C (7.7°F) Approximately -50°C (-58°F) 235° (from the SW) 29 knots (33 mph) 500mb 5,290m (17,356 ft) -29.7°C (-21.5°F) Approximately -36°C (-33°F) 240° (from the WSW) 44 knots (51 mph) 400mb 6,840m (22,441 ft) -42.3°C (-44.1°F) Approximately -49°C (-56°F) 235° (from the SW) 51 knots (59 mph) 300mb 8,720m (28,609 ft) -57.7°C (-71.9°F) Approximately -72°C (-98°F) 235° (from the SW) 59 knots (68 mph) 250mb 9,850m (32,316 ft) -62.7°C (-80.9°F) Approximately -95°C (-139°F) 230° (from the SW) 58 knots (67 mph) 200mb 11,290m (37,041 ft) -49.5°C (-57.1°F) Reading usually unavailable when air temperature is below -40°C (-40°F) 235° (from the SW) 48 knots (55 mph) 150mb 13,170m (43,209 ft) Height extrapolated since sonde terminated within 25mbs of this level.
Tropopause Level
- Pressure: 257 mb
- Air Temperature: -62.7°C (-80.9°F)
- Dew Point: Approximately -95°C (-139°F)
- Wind Direction: 240° (from the WSW)
- Wind Speed: 57 knots (66 mph)

Maximum Wind Level (maximum wind did not coincide with flight level):
- Pressure at maximum wind level: 269 mb
- Wind Direction: 250° (from the WSW)
- Wind Speed: 65 knots (75 mph)
- Vertical Wind Shear: Absolute value of vector difference between this level and 3,000 feet below: 15 knots
- Vertical Wind Shear: Absolute value of vector difference between this level and 3,000 feet above: 17 knots

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 22:43Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Splash Location: 52.57N 167.82W
Splash Time: 22:57Z

Location of Highest Altitude where wind was reported: 52.5N 168.03W
Time of Highest Altitude where wind was reported: 22:43:16Z

Location of Lowest Altitude where wind was reported: 52.57N 167.82W
Time of Lowest Altitude where wind was reported: 22:57:46Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 295° (from the WNW)
- Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 240° (from the WSW)
- Wind Speed: 34 knots (39 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 171mb to 1005mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 245° (from the WSW)
- Wind Speed: 2 knots (2 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 07450
 
Part B: Data For Significant Levels...



Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels... Level Air Temperature Dew Point 1006mb (Surface) 0.8°C (33.4°F) Approximately -9°C (16°F) 884mb -8.7°C (16.3°F) -11.8°C (10.8°F) 874mb -9.1°C (15.6°F) -12.1°C (10.2°F) 865mb -8.7°C (16.3°F) Approximately -21°C (-6°F) 850mb -8.9°C (16.0°F) Approximately -33°C (-27°F) 720mb -14.3°C (6.3°F) Approximately -48°C (-54°F) 697mb -13.3°C (8.1°F) Approximately -41°C (-42°F) 673mb -14.7°C (5.5°F) -19.2°C (-2.6°F) 627mb -19.1°C (-2.4°F) -21.5°C (-6.7°F) 617mb -18.5°C (-1.3°F) Approximately -24°C (-11°F) 588mb -20.3°C (-4.5°F) Approximately -31°C (-24°F) 531mb -25.9°C (-14.6°F) Approximately -35°C (-31°F) 496mb -30.1°C (-22.2°F) Approximately -36°C (-33°F) 421mb -39.1°C (-38.4°F) Approximately -46°C (-51°F) 359mb -48.7°C (-55.7°F) Approximately -56°C (-69°F) 272mb -61.7°C (-79.1°F) Approximately -84°C (-119°F) 249mb -62.5°C (-80.5°F) Approximately -94°C (-137°F) 246mb -60.9°C (-77.6°F) Approximately -93°C (-135°F) 240mb -54.9°C (-66.8°F) Approximately -89°C (-128°F) 236mb -52.9°C (-63.2°F) Approximately -88°C (-126°F) 210mb -51.9°C (-61.4°F) Approximately -87°C (-125°F) 196mb -48.7°C (-55.7°F) Reading usually unavailable when air temperature is below -40°C (-40°F) 171mb -50.1°C (-58.2°F) Reading usually unavailable when air temperature is below -40°C (-40°F)
Significant Wind Levels... Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 1006mb (Surface) 205° (from the SSW) 1 knots (1 mph) 965mb 300° (from the WNW) 5 knots (6 mph) 907mb 260° (from the W) 3 knots (3 mph) 872mb 210° (from the SSW) 11 knots (13 mph) 850mb 215° (from the SW) 8 knots (9 mph) 792mb 240° (from the WSW) 14 knots (16 mph) 713mb 230° (from the SW) 21 knots (24 mph) 672mb 245° (from the WSW) 40 knots (46 mph) 550mb 250° (from the WSW) 42 knots (48 mph) 358mb 230° (from the SW) 53 knots (61 mph) 296mb 235° (from the SW) 59 knots (68 mph) 269mb 250° (from the WSW) 65 knots (75 mph) 250mb 230° (from the SW) 58 knots (67 mph) 228mb 240° (from the WSW) 43 knots (49 mph) 212mb 225° (from the SW) 49 knots (56 mph) 171mb 250° (from the WSW) 57 knots (66 mph)



Winds at a particular level are peak winds since a dropsonde only records momentary slices of data at each level as it falls through the atmosphere. These winds are not 1 minute sustained. The highest wind observed in the "Significant Wind Levels" section is noted in bold.
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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

The ensembles do not look good... 12z op Canadian is a clear outlier within its own suite, most of the members have a system impacting the Canadian maritimes by 108hrs with development occurring anywhere from well off the VA Capes to the Delmarva, a simple majority+ have a very Miller B transfer look to them. I do not see any that indicate even a minor event for areas of the SE, including coastal regions. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/index_e.html

12z GFS ensemble did not update on Allan's site for some reason today, possibly a good thing as the panels on PSU are pretty bleak. A couple are closer to the NC coast with development, one (P003) significant event, and the rest are either doing a B type transfer from the low in SE Canada, or developing the cyclone half way to Bermuda. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html

I do not have access to the EC members, but I would venture to say they are much like the GFS and CMC, overwhelming majority miss, with a little bit of variation thrown in just to keep it mildly interesting. The operational run of the Euro may be more telling, a great deal of variability between the 12 and 0z in the minor nuances that will be oh so important. Take 9z Saturday for example, +93hrs on the 12z run and 105 on 0z, the energy over the ArkLaTex is clearly more consolidated on the 12z run, 0z had energy already shearing off to the ENE, the graphics are below.

12
post-382-0-71358000-1360712384_thumb.jpg

0
post-382-0-69963300-1360712405_thumb.jpg

Great news you say, not quite, back that storm wagon up north and lets see what's different in Canada, the fabled backside parcel. I will use the same period, 9z Saturday, note this piece of energy (a little NNW of center in the pic below) on the 0z run, obviously not going for a phase, but this helped on the 0z run to straighten out the trough a bit, clearly shown if you looped it ahead.

0

post-382-0-78993500-1360714782_thumb.jpg

 

Lets compare that to 12z, energy is late arriving, may not seem like a huge difference, but when you have a positive trough axis that needs to right tilt over MS/AL, could be meaningful as t is stepped. Another difference, look at the energy on the 0z graphic above over MN, MI, IA, on the 12z run it would appear that some is already involved over the central plains, with possibly a greater amount not breaking off and pulling away over the Hudson Bay.

12
post-382-0-84331700-1360714772_thumb.jpg


Lastly, lets look at what is actually contained at the base of the trough. I am going to use 0z Sunday for the frame of reference. 0z run almost has a disjointed look, with a vmax hanging back just south of LA, tail and all. 12z has better consolidation, you can still see the tail, but the torque being applied to the orientation is not as significant, hence a 12z is not as positive. Another thing is the amount of energy still involved from the leading wave, much more on the 0z run, just look at the vort over the Apps. Compare to the 12z run, most of that energy is taken away in to the NE.

0
post-382-0-26723700-1360714299_thumb.gif

12
post-382-0-64103400-1360714312_thumb.gif

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WeSuck

WeSuck

Posted
Posted

Could this event, if there is an event, be similar to the 1/23/11 event that only hit the outer banks? Just reading the analysis of it both that storm and the storm currently modeled look very similar.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/EventReviews/20110122/20110122.php

I remember this storm vividly. Talk about being pissed. Got like 1 inch in Norfolk. This is the type storm where Hatteras can get snow from though.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Pretty much unanimous agreement with the 18z mems at 72hrs, there goes our potential big dog off the SE Coast, trough could not tap it in time...   :(

 

post-382-0-10232900-1360716054_thumb.jpg

 

Still a few, 3 or 4, that indicate development associated with energy coming down, P009 gets the 18z GFS  :weenie:  award today. congrats 009, you earned it.

 

18zensp009p06120.gif

 

 

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