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WidreMann told us it was gonna snow thread


LithiaWx

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This was a nice surprise this morning. Looks great to see snow falling.

 

Still it's a shame that some of you can't be happy with what we're seeing.

I'd like to see one inch of a accumulation again. That'd be nice. I mean, token flakes are okay, but can we get more than glorified dusting for once? Something to look at?

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MHX toying with the kiss of death...  Snowy 46 here, clouds are just starting to move in, darker off to the west.

 

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 1000 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES BUT WEARE GIVING CAREFUL CONSIDERATION TO UPPING PORTIONS OF THEADVISORY TO A WARNING AND INCREASING SNOWFALL TOTALS. IF WE DECIDETO DO THIS WE LIKE TO DO IT AROUND OR BEFORE THE 1 PM UPDATE IFPOSSIBLE.LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN STORE FOR A QUICK HITTING POSSIBLY HIGHIMPACT EVENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A POWERFUL DEEPUPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILLLEAD TO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OFF OF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. THELOW INITIALLY WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR WINTRYPRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NC. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATINGVERY RAPID COOLING OF THE COLUMN BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AND THIS ISSUPPORTED BY THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WHICH INDICATE LOW LEVELCOLD AIR SWEEPING INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. THE TOP DOWNMETHOD INDICATES SATURATION AND LIFT IN THE DENDRITE GROWTHAREA WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING ALL SNOW UNTIL200-400 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE. CONSIDERING THAT >200 METER 24 HOURHEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST VALID 12Z SUNDAY...THERE SHOULD BE VERYSTRONG ASCENT AND THAT IS PRECISELY WHAT THE MODELS AREFORECASTING WITH EXTREME VALUES OF 15-20 MICROBARS INDICATED BY00Z. THUS WE ARE EXPECTING THE PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS RAINBUT QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW (BEFORE 00Z) ACROSS A LARGE PORTIONOF EASTERN NC DUE TO DYNAMIC COOLING. BANDED (HEAVIER)PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING VALUESBECOME IMPRESSIVE BY EARLY EVENING. MAIN QUESTIONS REVOLVE AROUNDQPF AMOUNTS AND AMOUNT OF MELTING DUE TO WARM GROUND (UPPER 40S)AND MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TOMIDDLE 30S EXPECTED DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT. IN THE VERYSHORT TERM WE HAVE SPED UP SLIGHTLY THE CHANGEOVER AND CHANGE TOSNOW BUT WILL NOT CHANGE THE SNOWFALL AND QPF FORECASTS UNTIL WECAN GET A QUICK PEEK AT THE 12Z MODEL RUN.

reading that almost brought a tear to my eye, some pretty strong wording starting to think 6" is doable.....pretty optimistic its gonna be sledding time in the morning it appears.

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So that I can have a post to bump as needed: 

 

To everyone talking about how it looks like this precip won't last long as this daytime stuff is going to be it, models have consistently suggested and forecasters are still predicting more development from the west that will move over these same areas later.  A lot of this stuff sticking now will burn off, but it's the secondary precip that should move through after dark and give you some decent accumulations (by SC/NC standards).

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Thanks -- looks like some redevelopment happening over Catawba/Burke/N. Cleveland as well as Henderson counties. Hopefully the start of something good.

RAP is not enthused. Has the redevelopment weaker and farther east. From your location to Charlotte still might be ableto eek out something, but it's not as promising as it looked late last night.

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So that I can have a post to bump as needed: 

 

To everyone talking about how it looks like this precip won't last long as this daytime stuff is going to be it, models have consistently suggested and forecasters are still predicting more development from the west that will move over these same areas later.  A lot of this stuff sticking now will burn off, but it's the secondary precip that should move through after dark and give you some decent accumulations (by SC/NC standards).

Yes, but all of that will be in the coastal plain. So for folks like me, this really is pretty much it.

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reading that almost brought a tear to my eye, some pretty strong wording starting to think 6" is doable.....pretty optimistic its gonna be sledding time in the morning it appears.

 

Same here. I'm going to try to remain somewhat pessimistic just in case Washington gets shafted somehow. 

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Even though it's still snowing, it's not heavy enough to maintain the paltry accumulations we've already gotten. The timing of this system is about the worst we could have possibly had.

Spot on. I've noticed out my window we hit lulls on and off but recently the clouds look like they do when you see thunder showers coming and going. I have a great vantage point out over the uwharrie mountains. Wondering if some folks get some convective type bands this afternoon as round 2 unfolds. Currently just started snow showering lightly. Haven't seen anything like the burst earlier this a.m. Thinking 4:00 ish will be my best shot.

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Light snow. Still NO accumulation :axe:

I very rarely post anything on this forum, because I like reading the forecasts instead. You've had some great insights for the forecasts, as had everyone else; however, I ask everyone to please stop worrying about accumulation, and enjoy the snow. I just took a 45 minute walk out in hillsborough with my dog, and it was absolutely beautiful. You won't change whether or not it's going to accumulate by complaining, and acting like the weather gods are screwing you over. Enjoy the cards you've been dealt, because at the latest by 4 am or so the storm will be out of here. 

Also: we weren't even supposed to switch over to snow until 3pm or so. In Raleigh, the hourly forecast said 42F for 11am and light rain. It's 35 at my house, and with beautiful snow. It's not accumulating much, but I personally think we're ahead of where we were supposed to be at this point. With that said, we might end up with nothing accumulating at the end, but please enjoy what we have, and stop worrying.

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