I85Greenville Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Latest GSP Update: AS OF 10 AM...LATEST RADAR IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ORIENTED SW TO NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS. RECENT PUBLIC AND SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS INDICATE THAT LARGE DENDRITIC SNOWFLAKES ARE REACHING THE SFC UNDER RETURNS OF 30 TO 35 DBZ. HOWEVER...REPORTS AND WEB CAMS ALSO VERIFY THAT SNOW IS MELTING AS IT FALLS AS AIR TEMPS RANGE IN THE MID 30S AND SOIL TEMPS REMAIN WELL IN THE 40S. IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR AS THIS BAND SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING. THE FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THE PASSAGE OF DEEP SYNOPTIC FORCING AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND ADJACENT NC COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RUNS OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS. IN FACT...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MIXING MAY REACH H6 WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING 200 J/KG. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES THAT THINNING CLOUD COVER HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...POSSIBLY AIDING IN STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES. AS THE SHOWERS DEVELOP...THEY WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CLT METRO AREA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. BY THIS AFTERNOON...PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES WILL COOL WELL WITHIN RANGE TO SUPPORT SN AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AIR TEMPERATURE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 33 TO 35 DEGREES AND WARM SOIL/ROAD TEMPS. HOWEVER...WITH THIS PACKAGE I WILL INTRODUCE A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE HIGH ENOUGH RATES TO OUTPACE MELTING. THE CURRENT WSW PLACEMENT AND TIMING HIGHLIGHTS THE REGION OF THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...NO CHANGE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 These radars are terrible. I mean really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 35 & calm; moderate snow from 9:50am 'til now. Slushy accum beginning on metal surfaces. Temp was 38 when rain changed over to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Heavy snow!!! the roads are geeting covered. I have not seen daytime snow like this is a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Definitely chalking this up to a screw job here so far with none in terms of accumulation. Meanwhile it looks like around an inch in Aberdeen near Southern Pines LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Not liking Rap or 12z GFS for much in CAE. Last night's 0z GFS looked good for us in CAE. Hopefully we can get that to come to fruition. Since it's nowcast time, probably better to rely on what's going on outside the window than models now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Anyone in Fuquay-Varina? Radar looks intersting over that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Heavy snow!!! the roads are geeting covered. I have not seen daytime snow like this is a long time. yeah, coming down pretty good here, probably on the fringe of light/moderate. Looks like it might be trying to accumulate on the grass, now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Drive about 5 minutes east and it's still coming down pretty good. Haha, i'll be my way east in a few. Gotta run an errand in N. Raleigh. I'm sure the turnpike authority loves me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scgirl Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 39 & holding here in the Mineral Springs Rd. area of Lexington SC - no flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Grass is almost covered with snow in Camden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Nice layer of snow now on everything but the roads and sidewalks. Yellow returns to the south look promising. Maybe a quick half inch to an inch in that band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Been at basketball -- radar is pretty alarming for NC piedmont/SC upstate crowd -- redevelopment still expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Full-blown flizzard has started here ... under a band moving east... still hoping the main event will reach up to the Triad ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Nothing but cloudy skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Just checked the 12z NAM for RDU. 5.6" Wow. Here's the link. Just change the location id in the address bar to get other locations. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_krdu.txt TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 very impressed at the rate of snow..definitely in the moderate range. Light dusting in just the past 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Latest GSP Update: AS OF 10 AM...LATEST RADAR IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ORIENTED SW TO NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS. RECENT PUBLIC AND SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS INDICATE THAT LARGE DENDRITIC SNOWFLAKES ARE REACHING THE SFC UNDER RETURNS OF 30 TO 35 DBZ. HOWEVER...REPORTS AND WEB CAMS ALSO VERIFY THAT SNOW IS MELTING AS IT FALLS AS AIR TEMPS RANGE IN THE MID 30S AND SOIL TEMPS REMAIN WELL IN THE 40S. IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR AS THIS BAND SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING. THE FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THE PASSAGE OF DEEP SYNOPTIC FORCING AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND ADJACENT NC COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RUNS OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS. IN FACT...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MIXING MAY REACH H6 WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING 200 J/KG. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES THAT THINNING CLOUD COVER HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...POSSIBLY AIDING IN STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES. AS THE SHOWERS DEVELOP...THEY WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CLT METRO AREA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. BY THIS AFTERNOON...PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES WILL COOL WELL WITHIN RANGE TO SUPPORT SN AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AIR TEMPERATURE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 33 TO 35 DEGREES AND WARM SOIL/ROAD TEMPS. HOWEVER...WITH THIS PACKAGE I WILL INTRODUCE A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE HIGH ENOUGH RATES TO OUTPACE MELTING. THE CURRENT WSW PLACEMENT AND TIMING HIGHLIGHTS THE REGION OF THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...NO CHANGE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. Where's straight8cashmoney?...... Thundersnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Here's the latest update from Brad Panovich: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Nice big precip hole headed right this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Where's straight8cashmoney?...... Thundersnow? That's what I said. Wow. Would be crazy to see that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Yes! According to GSP update. Thundersnow possible in our area! keep hope alive!! Been at basketball -- radar is pretty alarming for NC piedmont/SC upstate crowd -- redevelopment still expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The nice thing about the HRRR model is that if I don't like what it's forecasting, I can wait an hour for the next run to show something completely different and probably more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 RAP is not enthused. Has the redevelopment weaker and farther east. From your location to Charlotte still might be ableto eek out something, but it's not as promising as it looked late last night. Been at basketball -- radar is pretty alarming for NC piedmont/SC upstate crowd -- redevelopment still expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 MHX toying with the kiss of death... Snowy 46 here, clouds are just starting to move in, darker off to the west. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 1000 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES BUT WEARE GIVING CAREFUL CONSIDERATION TO UPPING PORTIONS OF THEADVISORY TO A WARNING AND INCREASING SNOWFALL TOTALS. IF WE DECIDETO DO THIS WE LIKE TO DO IT AROUND OR BEFORE THE 1 PM UPDATE IFPOSSIBLE.LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN STORE FOR A QUICK HITTING POSSIBLY HIGHIMPACT EVENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A POWERFUL DEEPUPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILLLEAD TO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OFF OF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. THELOW INITIALLY WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR WINTRYPRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NC. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATINGVERY RAPID COOLING OF THE COLUMN BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AND THIS ISSUPPORTED BY THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WHICH INDICATE LOW LEVELCOLD AIR SWEEPING INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. THE TOP DOWNMETHOD INDICATES SATURATION AND LIFT IN THE DENDRITE GROWTHAREA WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING ALL SNOW UNTIL200-400 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE. CONSIDERING THAT >200 METER 24 HOURHEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST VALID 12Z SUNDAY...THERE SHOULD BE VERYSTRONG ASCENT AND THAT IS PRECISELY WHAT THE MODELS AREFORECASTING WITH EXTREME VALUES OF 15-20 MICROBARS INDICATED BY00Z. THUS WE ARE EXPECTING THE PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS RAINBUT QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW (BEFORE 00Z) ACROSS A LARGE PORTIONOF EASTERN NC DUE TO DYNAMIC COOLING. BANDED (HEAVIER)PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING VALUESBECOME IMPRESSIVE BY EARLY EVENING. MAIN QUESTIONS REVOLVE AROUNDQPF AMOUNTS AND AMOUNT OF MELTING DUE TO WARM GROUND (UPPER 40S)AND MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TOMIDDLE 30S EXPECTED DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT. IN THE VERYSHORT TERM WE HAVE SPED UP SLIGHTLY THE CHANGEOVER AND CHANGE TOSNOW BUT WILL NOT CHANGE THE SNOWFALL AND QPF FORECASTS UNTIL WECAN GET A QUICK PEEK AT THE 12Z MODEL RUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 12Z RUC showing nice RH and Omega at 700 mb for 19Z for the foothills of NC: Here's the simulated radar at the same time: This seems to match well with what Brad P was saying earlier. Oh, and by the way, nice snow showers now occurring in Hickory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 POURING SNOW IN HARTSVILLE, SC.... sticking to grass and cars! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Anyone in Fuquay-Varina? Radar looks intersting over that way. Crazy heavy snow here. Best I have ever seen. Just starting to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 31 and mod snow in aberdeen/southern pines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 silver dollars just floating down coating all non-road surfaces here. Solid dusting. Still only 37 degrees according to my thermometer. Would be nice to get down to 34 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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