Jon Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Mods please lock. Some bad model runs (mostly of the GFS, mind you) and everyone is all upset? Please. The fact that the CMC is showing a lake cutter has to be a red flag right? Wait it out a bit longer...the timing is off every model run of the GFS, thus a different solution as far as the trajectory of the low, if it can make it out alive before the cold squashes it. There is much left to be figured out, I think. How exactly dead on have the GFS and Euro been 120 hours out? hm. Recon should be ingested any run now. Wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 just checking to see if anyone is talking about the triple phase... that is cold front phasing into the gulf coast which then phases into Cuba I'm not sure how "phasing" ever made it into the conversation in the first place with nothing more than a broad-based trof and frontal passage man, I'm all about getting excited over a storm system, but when a system isn't even below 1010mb and on some runs isn't even there? ... when our trof can't dig (because of poor ridging out west) and our trof is yet another positively tilted piece of ____, what is there to get excited about other than getting smacked in the face with a cold, northwest wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wow, it's Tuesday and y'all are acting like this? Blows my mind, grow up. Models CHANGE even within 72 hours. How about instead of posting go read the ENTIRE Christmas of 2010 thread. How do y'all get through life like this? God bless em valid point the RUC led the way in that phasing situation very interesting storm to see come together with an active southern stream wave coming out of Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Would be interested in your take on what the Canadian is doing (smoking?) and how it might translate to a more favorable result for some of us. valid point the RUC led the way in that phasing situation very interesting storm to see come together with an active southern stream wave coming out of Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 just checking to see if anyone is talking about the triple phase... that is cold front phasing into the gulf coast which then phases into Cuba I'm not sure how "phasing" ever made it into the conversation in the first place with nothing more than a broad-based trof and frontal passage man, I'm all about getting excited over a storm system, but when a system isn't even below 1010mb and on some runs isn't even there? ... when our trof can't dig (because of poor ridging out west) and our trof is yet another positively tilted piece of ____, what is there to get excited about other than getting smacked in the face with a cold, northwest wind? Was the expansioin of moisture on yesterdays 18z gfs run because the trof tilted negatively just at the right time? I've noticed on recent runs that we've not got the trof to tilt negative until after Ga. therefore the sfc low form to far east and ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Do you believe that the MJO is the main driver of winter weather in the SE or is this statement just hyperbole? Honest question. Major league hyperbole. I did an analysis of the 11 major (3.5"+) S/IP's at KATL since 1974, which is as far back as the MJO phase data goes. Almost all of these were also major S/IP's in a large portion of the inland SE US. I bolded notable major SE winter storms that were in the "bad" phases. -1/9-10/2011: MJO started 6 and moved to 5 -2/12/2010: MJO 8 -3/1/2009: MJO 4 -1/2-3/2002: MJO 7-8 -3/13/1993: MJO 4 -1/18/1992: MJO 8 -1/17/1988: MJO 2 -1/22/1987: MJO 3 -3/24/1983: MJO COD -1/12-14/1982: MJO COD -2/17-18/1979: MJO started 3 and moved to COD So, what do we have? I'll call the "good" phases 7, 8, 1, and 2. I'll call the "bad" phases 3-6. Others have too small an amplitude and are in the circle of death (COD). good phases (7/8/1/2): four of the eleven major S/IP's bad phases (3/4/5/6): 4 1/2 of the eleven major S/IP's (Aside: Carolina Crusher of late Jan. 2000, which was a major ZR but not a major S/IP at Atlanta, was when MJO was within the COD) Conclusions: 1) Pretty small (at best) overall correlation between MJO phases and the chance at a major SE winter storm. To say otherwise would be major hyperbole. The hard data is right here. 2) Those assuming that a move toward phase 4 during the first half of March, should it actually occur, would take away the chance for a major winter storm in early March can just look at this list and say that's total BS. The two early March major ATL S/IP's since 1974 were both during phase 4! Now, to be sure, I'm not saying phase 4 during early March would necessarily increase the chance for a major S/IP then. However, I am saying that if it were to be in/near phase 4 then, it wouldn't diminish the chances. 3) So, in other words, to those who give so much weight to the MJO as regards major SE winter storm chances, where's the beef? I'll answer that..there is no beef! MJO Data from here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Was the expansioin of moisture on yesterdays 18z gfs run because the trof tilted negatively just at the right time? I've noticed on recent runs that we've not got the trof to tilt negative until after Ga. therefore the sfc low form to far east and ots. the expansion of moisture on yesterday's 18z GFS had to do with the base of the trof's energy being sharper and a bit more bundled and turning neutral over Alabama (image below) then you can see today's image (2nd image) valid the same time is a more broad-based, positively tilted piece of ____ without much energy bundle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Major league hyperbole. I did an analysis of the 11 major (3.5"+) S/IP's at KATL since 1974, which is as far back as the MJO phase data goes. Almost all of these were also major S/IP's in a large portion of the inland SE US. I bolded notable major SE winter storms that were in the "bad" phases. -1/9-10/2011: MJO started 6 and moved to 5 -2/12/2010: MJO 8 -3/1/2009: MJO 4 -1/2-3/2002: MJO 7-8 -3/13/1993: MJO 4 -1/18/1992: MJO 8 -1/17/1988: MJO 2 -1/22/1987: MJO 3 -3/24/1983: MJO COD -1/12-14/1982: MJO COD -2/17-19/1979: MJO started 3 and moved to COD So, what do we have? I'll call the "good" phases 7, 8, 1, and 2. I'll call the "bad" phases 3-6. Others have too small an amplitude and are in the circle of death (COD). good phases (7/8/1/2): four of the eleven major S/IP's bad phases (3/4/5/6): 4 1/2 of the eleven major S/IP's (Aside: Carolina Crusher of late Jan. 2000, which was a major ZR but not a major S/IP at Atlanta, was when MJO was within the COD) Conclusions: 1) Pretty small (at best) overall correlation between MJO phases and the chance at a major SE winter storm. To say otherwise would be major hyperbole. The hard data is right here. 2) Those assuming that a move toward phase 4 during the first half of March, should it actually occur, would take away the chance for a major winter storm in early March can just look at this list and say that's total BS. The two early March major ATL S/IP's since 1974 were both during phase 4! Now, to be sure, I'm not saying phase 4 during early March would necessarily increase the chance for a major S/IP then. However, I am saying that if it were to be in/near phase 4 then, it wouldn't diminish the chances. 3) So, in other words, to those who give so much weight to the MJO as regards major SE winter storm chances, where's the beef? I'll answer that..there is no beef! MJO Data from here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ Very interesting Larry, thanks for taking the time to post that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Euro @96 is better than 00z but that isn't saying much we'll see if it can get it's act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 the expansion of moisture on yesterday's 18z GFS had to do with the base of the trof's energy being sharper and a bit more bundled and turning neutral over Alabama (image below) then you can see today's image valid the same time is a more broad-based, positively tilted piece of ____ without much energy bundle (2nd image) Thanks for the info! I appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12Z Nogaps still has a big storm...looks similar to 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12Z Nogaps still has a big storm...looks similar to 0Z. yes, looks pretty good at 5H. Straws, I know, but I grasp anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 EURO looks close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Thanks for the info! I appreciate it. you got it buddy, glad to help you guys take it easy and we'll hope for another flizzard, although flizzards do nothing but tease everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12Z Nogaps still has a big storm...looks similar to 0Z. It certainly says "hello" again to Connecticut. Would be crazy to see them get slapped again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Major league hyperbole. I did an analysis of the 11 major (3.5"+) S/IP's at KATL since 1974, which is as far back as the MJO phase data goes. Almost all of these were also major S/IP's in a large portion of the inland SE US. I bolded notable major SE winter storms that were in the "bad" phases. -1/9-10/2011: MJO started 6 and moved to 5 -2/12/2010: MJO 8 -3/1/2009: MJO 4 -1/2-3/2002: MJO 7-8 -3/13/1993: MJO 4 -1/18/1992: MJO 8 -1/17/1988: MJO 2 -1/22/1987: MJO 3 -3/24/1983: MJO COD -1/12-14/1982: MJO COD -2/17-18/1979: MJO started 3 and moved to COD So, what do we have? I'll call the "good" phases 7, 8, 1, and 2. I'll call the "bad" phases 3-6. Others have too small an amplitude and are in the circle of death (COD). good phases (7/8/1/2): four of the eleven major S/IP's bad phases (3/4/5/6): 4 1/2 of the eleven major S/IP's (Aside: Carolina Crusher of late Jan. 2000, which was a major ZR but not a major S/IP at Atlanta, was when MJO was within the COD) Conclusions: 1) Pretty small (at best) overall correlation between MJO phases and the chance at a major SE winter storm. To say otherwise would be major hyperbole. The hard data is right here. 2) Those assuming that a move toward phase 4 during the first half of March, should it actually occur, would take away the chance for a major winter storm in early March can just look at this list and say that's total BS. The two early March major ATL S/IP's since 1974 were both during phase 4! Now, to be sure, I'm not saying phase 4 during early March would necessarily increase the chance for a major S/IP then. However, I am saying that if it were to be in/near phase 4 then, it wouldn't diminish the chances. 3) So, in other words, to those who give so much weight to the MJO as regards major SE winter storm chances, where's the beef? I'll answer that..there is no beef! MJO Data from here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ Great stuff Larry, love your research! You 'da man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Major league hyperbole. I did an analysis of the 11 major (3.5"+) S/IP's at KATL since 1974, which is as far back as the MJO phase data goes. Almost all of these were also major S/IP's in a large portion of the inland SE US. I bolded notable major SE winter storms that were in the "bad" phases. -1/9-10/2011: MJO started 6 and moved to 5 -2/12/2010: MJO 8 -3/1/2009: MJO 4 -1/2-3/2002: MJO 7-8 -3/13/1993: MJO 4 -1/18/1992: MJO 8 -1/17/1988: MJO 2 -1/22/1987: MJO 3 -3/24/1983: MJO COD -1/12-14/1982: MJO COD -2/17-18/1979: MJO started 3 and moved to COD So, what do we have? I'll call the "good" phases 7, 8, 1, and 2. I'll call the "bad" phases 3-6. Others have too small an amplitude and are in the circle of death (COD). good phases (7/8/1/2): four of the eleven major S/IP's bad phases (3/4/5/6): 4 1/2 of the eleven major S/IP's (Aside: Carolina Crusher of late Jan. 2000, which was a major ZR but not a major S/IP at Atlanta, was when MJO was within the COD) Conclusions: 1) Pretty small (at best) overall correlation between MJO phases and the chance at a major SE winter storm. To say otherwise would be major hyperbole. The hard data is right here. 2) Those assuming that a move toward phase 4 during the first half of March, should it actually occur, would take away the chance for a major winter storm in early March can just look at this list and say that's total BS. The two early March major ATL S/IP's since 1974 were both during phase 4! Now, to be sure, I'm not saying phase 4 during early March would necessarily increase the chance for a major S/IP then. However, I am saying that if it were to be in/near phase 4 then, it wouldn't diminish the chances. 3) So, in other words, to those who give so much weight to the MJO as regards major SE winter storm chances, where's the beef? I'll answer that..there is no beef! MJO Data from here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ Larry, Great stuff and I wouldn't have guessed it in a million years! After reading this, I am not sweating the MJO from here on out. Would be nice to see it in a "so called favorable" phase, but certainly not the kiss of death I thought before reading your stats. I hope the -NAO can materialize that is on the Euro. (it is looking more and more impressive on the modeling) It will be interesting to see if it can help as we head into the last week or so of February and into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Major league hyperbole. I did an analysis of the 11 major (3.5"+) S/IP's at KATL since 1974, which is as far back as the MJO phase data goes. Almost all of these were also major S/IP's in a large portion of the inland SE US. I bolded notable major SE winter storms that were in the "bad" phases. -1/9-10/2011: MJO started 6 and moved to 5 -2/12/2010: MJO 8 -3/1/2009: MJO 4 -1/2-3/2002: MJO 7-8 -3/13/1993: MJO 4 -1/18/1992: MJO 8 -1/17/1988: MJO 2 -1/22/1987: MJO 3 -3/24/1983: MJO COD -1/12-14/1982: MJO COD -2/17-18/1979: MJO started 3 and moved to COD So, what do we have? I'll call the "good" phases 7, 8, 1, and 2. I'll call the "bad" phases 3-6. Others have too small an amplitude and are in the circle of death (COD). good phases (7/8/1/2): four of the eleven major S/IP's bad phases (3/4/5/6): 4 1/2 of the eleven major S/IP's (Aside: Carolina Crusher of late Jan. 2000, which was a major ZR but not a major S/IP at Atlanta, was when MJO was within the COD) Conclusions: 1) Pretty small (at best) overall correlation between MJO phases and the chance at a major SE winter storm. To say otherwise would be major hyperbole. The hard data is right here. 2) Those assuming that a move toward phase 4 during the first half of March, should it actually occur, would take away the chance for a major winter storm in early March can just look at this list and say that's total BS. The two early March major ATL S/IP's since 1974 were both during phase 4! Now, to be sure, I'm not saying phase 4 during early March would necessarily increase the chance for a major S/IP then. However, I am saying that if it were to be in/near phase 4 then, it wouldn't diminish the chances. 3) So, in other words, to those who give so much weight to the MJO as regards major SE winter storm chances, where's the beef? I'll answer that..there is no beef! MJO Data from here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ Hugging the MJO as the be-all & end-all to getting snow in the south is a dangerous game. I'm glad I don't waste my time with it. We have much more of a chance of cold and dry suppression in the so-called correct phases. Larry, thanks for your info and putting this into perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 At work: What happened on Euro after hr 96???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The Euro is very close to a nice hit: 12Z 120: Compare to 0Z 120 (valid 12 hours earlier): The shortwave at the base of the trough is stronger on the 12Z. If things were to slow down just a touch, there would be a much bigger system to deal with. We're not that far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 At work: What happened on Euro after hr 96???? I can only see the free maps, but it has a broad LP developing off NC coast at 120 with sharp trough trying to go negative over NC at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Unusual and surprising to see this from the NWS in Peachtree City(KFFC). They must be buying into a wetter solution for Fri-Sat period. They have a 30% chance of rain in Macon on Saturday with a high of 50. They're so conservative that when they post "30% chance" of anything 96 hours away they are sure of the event and must have heard from God. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE FINALLY PULLS THE REMAINING PRECIP OUT OFTHE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY ANDTHURSDAY NIGHT. FOR FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF CANADAAND INTO THE MIDWEST DEEPENING THE H5 TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA ANDTHE GREAT LAKES. IN RESPONSE AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THECWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATEDWITH THIS FRONT WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW LEVELTHICKNESS PROGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAFRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPS WILL KEEP MOST OFTHE PRECIP IN THE LIQUID FORM OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THEEXTREME NORTH WHERE THERE WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE PRECIP SHOULDBE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z SUN. A STRONG NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW IN THEMOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT COULD HOLD MOISTURE AND LIGHT SNOW IN FOR ALITTLE LONGER AND WILL KEEP A 20/30 POP GOING FOR THE NORTHEASTMOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE COMING MOREIN LINE WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS...BUT THEY STILL APPEAR TOO WARM ANDWILL NEED TO DROP THEM A FEW DEGREES.MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THISWILL HOLD THROUGH MONDAY. Well, I like seeing them respond to the possible cold air coming. It increases my belief the long warm nightmare may be over Still, I'm waiting with patience until 0z Wed. before I to MoleCon 3, because I've been gullible, and fooled over and over by visions of cold that never appeared. As for moisture, the rain train still rides down here, and it will take a heck of a vodka cold snap to push it aside, I expect. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I don't have full Euro access but from the looks of that we would just need the phase a bit further west. The good news as mentioned is the shortwave is in play and certainly robust enough to get something cranking. Ideally I would like to see a 1040 high in Ontario of course but obviously in the overall pattern the cold air is in place. One thing a friend pointed out to me (which I overlooked and should have noticed) is the GFS had a surface high in the base of the trough which was a bit odd. Usually it would be a bit farther west or northwest. Perhaps it isn't time to lock this thread yet but we have a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Major league hyperbole. I did an analysis of the 11 major (3.5"+) S/IP's at KATL since 1974, which is as far back as the MJO phase data goes. Almost all of these were also major S/IP's in a large portion of the inland SE US. I bolded notable major SE winter storms that were in the "bad" phases. -1/9-10/2011: MJO started 6 and moved to 5 -2/12/2010: MJO 8 -3/1/2009: MJO 4 -1/2-3/2002: MJO 7-8 -3/13/1993: MJO 4 -1/18/1992: MJO 8 -1/17/1988: MJO 2 -1/22/1987: MJO 3 -3/24/1983: MJO COD -1/12-14/1982: MJO COD -2/17-18/1979: MJO started 3 and moved to COD So, what do we have? I'll call the "good" phases 7, 8, 1, and 2. I'll call the "bad" phases 3-6. Others have too small an amplitude and are in the circle of death (COD). good phases (7/8/1/2): four of the eleven major S/IP's bad phases (3/4/5/6): 4 1/2 of the eleven major S/IP's (Aside: Carolina Crusher of late Jan. 2000, which was a major ZR but not a major S/IP at Atlanta, was when MJO was within the COD) Conclusions: 1) Pretty small (at best) overall correlation between MJO phases and the chance at a major SE winter storm. To say otherwise would be major hyperbole. The hard data is right here. 2) Those assuming that a move toward phase 4 during the first half of March, should it actually occur, would take away the chance for a major winter storm in early March can just look at this list and say that's total BS. The two early March major ATL S/IP's since 1974 were both during phase 4! Now, to be sure, I'm not saying phase 4 during early March would necessarily increase the chance for a major S/IP then. However, I am saying that if it were to be in/near phase 4 then, it wouldn't diminish the chances. 3) So, in other words, to those who give so much weight to the MJO as regards major SE winter storm chances, where's the beef? I'll answer that..there is no beef! MJO Data from here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ Lol, if i'd had the chance at birth to decide on it, I'd take 85 bad Mjo's to get a return of 5 March 93's and call it a good weather life A great point was made in the "What got you interested in weather" thread, in that young people think the big storms they encounter are just the start, I know I did, with never a clue that it may well be the only one they experience in their life time. Good storms are so hard to get down here, and most come out of the blue, irregardless of what the Atlantic and the Pacitic, and the models, and the experts are doing and saying. Just have to wait for it, and enjoy it fully if you get it, because it may never come again while you're alive. I know I didn't have a clue when the weekend weather lady in Atl. said on a Friday night there might be a snow storm by next Thur, it would turn out to be such a great call, and mind bending storm. But most don't come like that. Might be a great storm this weekend, who knows....you just have to wait for it...and all of us who say no, it can't happen, and all of us who believe, won't mean a fig for this weekend, or next, or three weeks from now. Just be civil, show some social skills, as Burns implores of us, and you may get your March 93. It ain't ever over until it's over no matter who says so, and what reasons they give. In the end the sun will decide....unless we get Laki to blow, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 That will start about 36 hours from the event. Maybe 0z Friday? The Euro already kicked it off at 12z! ...Maybe... One thing I will say about this is that I feel much more hope for this one being suppressed into oblivion like it is now rather than having an Apps Runner or something of that nature. Maybe we can get a 1/25/00-like NW trend at the last second, haha... Dreaming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 LOL at this system and the models. 18z NAM digging even more than the 12z. Bears little resemblance to the GFS. Obviously, the NAM and GGEM are seeing SOMETHING ... but what??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Is anyone watching the 18z NAM? Yes, I know it's the NAM at the end of the run and all, but the h5 maps look like an improvement to my relatively untrained eye, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Here is part of GSP's afternoon long term. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 225 PM TUESDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A BRIEFPATTERN CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHSDIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN CONUS CARVE OUT A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGHOVER THE EASTERN STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BRINGMUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION...AND POSSIBLY PERIODS OFNORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MTNS. A POTENT SHORT WAVE ISEXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE SATURDAY/SAT NIGHTTIME FRAME. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THISFEATURE WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AFTER IT LIFTS AWAY FROM THECOAST...RESULTING IN RAPID CYCLOGENESIS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD HAVE NOEFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR AREA...BUT IF THE TRANSITIONTO A NEGATIVE TILT OCCURS SOONER...THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Ha, got to love that last sentence from the AFD, Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 LOL at this system and the models. 18z NAM digging even more than the 12z. Bears little resemblance to the GFS. Obviously, the NAM and GGEM are seeing SOMETHING ... but what??? Yep NAM was certainly interesting @84. Gotta see where the DGEX takes it. You would think a phase a neg tilt would be coming up over the 24 hours out of the NAM. Gotta see if the NAM can play the victor yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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