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WidreMann told us it was gonna snow thread


LithiaWx

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Great overnight from GSP....good luck guys & gals.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC414 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH DRY HIGHPRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILLAPPROACH THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY WITH ANOTHERAREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF EARLY SAT MORNING...UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGIONTODAY WITH FURTHER COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG VORT MAX ACCOMPANYINGIT. VERY LIGHT PRECIP ALREADY FALLING OVER THE PIEDMONT. THIS AREAIS FAVORED BY THE NAM...GFS...RAP AND HRRR AS BEING THE FOCUS FORTHE BULK OF THE PRECIP. FORCING FROM THE WAVE WILL BE ENHANCED OVERTHE PIEDMONT BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE INVADING ARCTICAIRMASS AND EXISTING COASTAL AIR. THE TROUGH STEADILY PROGRESSESEAST...WITH THE BASE HAVING DEPARTED THE CWFA BY 00Z...WITH DEEP DRYAIR RAPIDLY WORKING IN.TEMPERATURE PROFILES DO NOT INDICATE A WARM NOSE GIVEN THE ALREADYCOLD AIR IN PLACE. DEEP SATURATION MEANS RAIN OR SNOW WILL MAINLY BEDETERMINED BY SURFACE TEMP. FREEZING LEVELS ARE PRETTY LOW AND SFCTEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 30S OVER THE PIEDMONT. A RAIN/SNOW MIXWILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE FREEZING LEVEL LOWERS DUE TOTHE WET BULB EFFECT. FOR QPF...SOMEWHAT TRICKY WITH OPERATIONALMODELS SHOWING SOME POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE EFFECTS AND LOCALIZED AREASSEEING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL. INDEED BOTH THE NAMAND GFS SHOW UP TO A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF MUCAPE THIS AFTERNOONOVER A PORTION OF NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE. 21Z SREF BACKS THISUP WITH LIKELY-RANGE PROBS OF 100 J. SO THIS COULD HELP ENHANCETOTALS DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE FORCING ISSTRONGEST ANYWAY. CHOSE MODEST QPF DERIVED FROM A MODEL BLEND WHICHHAPPENS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN AND AMOUNTS OF THELAST FEW GFS RUNS...WITH ABOUT A QUARTER INCH SOUTHEAST OF A LINEFROM GREENWOOD TO CHESTER. FAIRLY HIGH SNOW RATIOS OF 13-16 TO 1WILL PRODUCE TOTALS GENERALLY OF 1 TO 2 INCHES TODAY. THIS MEETS OURWINTER WX ADVY CRITERIA OVER THE SRN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NC ASWELL AS MOST OF THE SC PIEDMONT.IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING...PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILLPRODUCE ENHANCED SNOWFALL IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS.NONETHELESS...TOTALS ARE COMPARABLE TO PREVIOUS FCST AND EXISTINGWINTER WX ADVY WILL COVER THIS.HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE ARCTIC AIR. WITHMOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES USED A BLEND OF GFS AND CMC-REGIONAL TEMPS.BOTH THE GFS AND NAM QUICKLY DRY THINGS OUT BEHIND THE DEPARTINGTROUGH SO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD COME LATE IN THE DAYESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST...BUT PROBABLY TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH OF ANIMPACT ON HIGHS. FURTHERMORE ANY SNOW COVER COULD LIMIT TEMPS FROMRISING.
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:facepalm:  :facepalm: 

lol.  made the mistake of checking radar for a quick glance a few min ago and saw echos overhead.  hopped up to check (just in case haha) and its just virga.  more echos to the west but have had two batches move through with nothing making it to the ground. 

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How much did Atlanta get in the Jan 25,2000 storm? If my memory serves me correct, that storm completely missed them.

Atl didn't miss the storm. They actually had a major ZR from over 1.5" of liquid. There was plenty of moisture thks to the Gulf.

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