ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Radar beginning to light up....already showing returns in the upstate. cool...good news for sure, yet thundersnow is still a reach good luck to everyone today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 a little light sleet and snow falling here nw of GSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 for the love of Pete... highly doubtful I'm all about snow and understand the minimal conditional instability of the trowel, but let's be realistic here... we're not dealing with a powerhouse upper level low I'm sure he knows more than you, no offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 My phone just woke me up, CAE finally issued a WWA for central SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Based on the NWS discussions and latest RAP, it looks like the system is going to hug the coast a little more. More moisture west in the I-85 corridor and northeast through VA. Could be a good day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Interestingly, the GFS initialized too warm in Columbia. Actually, about 6 degrees too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 For what it's worth, the GFS just extended the precip about 25 miles north and west. It's also noticeably wetter with a max qpf over Raleigh with .70 inches. Also has another max in the lee side enhancement area of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It also appears that after dropping snow totals on the 21z SREF run, the 03z increased totals to higher than any run in the past 24 hours in most locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Great overnight from GSP....good luck guys & gals. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC414 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH DRY HIGHPRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILLAPPROACH THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY WITH ANOTHERAREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF EARLY SAT MORNING...UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGIONTODAY WITH FURTHER COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG VORT MAX ACCOMPANYINGIT. VERY LIGHT PRECIP ALREADY FALLING OVER THE PIEDMONT. THIS AREAIS FAVORED BY THE NAM...GFS...RAP AND HRRR AS BEING THE FOCUS FORTHE BULK OF THE PRECIP. FORCING FROM THE WAVE WILL BE ENHANCED OVERTHE PIEDMONT BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE INVADING ARCTICAIRMASS AND EXISTING COASTAL AIR. THE TROUGH STEADILY PROGRESSESEAST...WITH THE BASE HAVING DEPARTED THE CWFA BY 00Z...WITH DEEP DRYAIR RAPIDLY WORKING IN.TEMPERATURE PROFILES DO NOT INDICATE A WARM NOSE GIVEN THE ALREADYCOLD AIR IN PLACE. DEEP SATURATION MEANS RAIN OR SNOW WILL MAINLY BEDETERMINED BY SURFACE TEMP. FREEZING LEVELS ARE PRETTY LOW AND SFCTEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 30S OVER THE PIEDMONT. A RAIN/SNOW MIXWILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE FREEZING LEVEL LOWERS DUE TOTHE WET BULB EFFECT. FOR QPF...SOMEWHAT TRICKY WITH OPERATIONALMODELS SHOWING SOME POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE EFFECTS AND LOCALIZED AREASSEEING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL. INDEED BOTH THE NAMAND GFS SHOW UP TO A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF MUCAPE THIS AFTERNOONOVER A PORTION OF NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE. 21Z SREF BACKS THISUP WITH LIKELY-RANGE PROBS OF 100 J. SO THIS COULD HELP ENHANCETOTALS DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE FORCING ISSTRONGEST ANYWAY. CHOSE MODEST QPF DERIVED FROM A MODEL BLEND WHICHHAPPENS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN AND AMOUNTS OF THELAST FEW GFS RUNS...WITH ABOUT A QUARTER INCH SOUTHEAST OF A LINEFROM GREENWOOD TO CHESTER. FAIRLY HIGH SNOW RATIOS OF 13-16 TO 1WILL PRODUCE TOTALS GENERALLY OF 1 TO 2 INCHES TODAY. THIS MEETS OURWINTER WX ADVY CRITERIA OVER THE SRN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NC ASWELL AS MOST OF THE SC PIEDMONT.IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING...PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILLPRODUCE ENHANCED SNOWFALL IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS.NONETHELESS...TOTALS ARE COMPARABLE TO PREVIOUS FCST AND EXISTINGWINTER WX ADVY WILL COVER THIS.HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE ARCTIC AIR. WITHMOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES USED A BLEND OF GFS AND CMC-REGIONAL TEMPS.BOTH THE GFS AND NAM QUICKLY DRY THINGS OUT BEHIND THE DEPARTINGTROUGH SO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD COME LATE IN THE DAYESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST...BUT PROBABLY TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH OF ANIMPACT ON HIGHS. FURTHERMORE ANY SNOW COVER COULD LIMIT TEMPS FROMRISING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Oh well. Cold rain. How exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 lol. made the mistake of checking radar for a quick glance a few min ago and saw echos overhead. hopped up to check (just in case haha) and its just virga. more echos to the west but have had two batches move through with nothing making it to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Cold rain coming down in chapin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Cold rain coming down in chapin Light snow here at 36 degrees. Nice dime sized flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 a very light rain/snow mix is falling here. Temp is 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Light snow/rain mix in Randolph County, NC just south of the Triad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Snow and rain mix in Midtown Charlotte! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Light snow falling in Greenville, SC. WOO HOO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busick Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 snow/rain mix currently fallen in Brown summit, NC wife is 7 miles south of Concord and said snow is fallen pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 congrats to you guys getting snow already and for those expecting more. Here's to a good day for southern snow lovers! 42 here as light is breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 How much did Atlanta get in the Jan 25,2000 storm? If my memory serves me correct, that storm completely missed them. Atl didn't miss the storm. They actually had a major ZR from over 1.5" of liquid. There was plenty of moisture thks to the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Light snow falling in Greenville, SC. WOO HOO Hopefully it feels back in further west later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Midtown CLT, was raining at 6am, it's stopped for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Hey Guys my morning update. http://www.examiner.com/article/winter-storm-update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Does anyone now where to find the GSP office's snowfall forecast map? I can't find it on their website. Edit: Nvmd I found it. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/stormtotal/stormtotal.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Light snow and 35.6F. Light snow but good sized flakes. I am about 17 miles SSE of CLT Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Does anyone now where to find the GSP office's snowfall forecast map? I can't find it on their website. Not impressed with it: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/stormtotal/stormtotal.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Rain. 0.01" 37f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 waiting for 850s to crash.. close by.. definitely looks like we may start to mix, turn over here in a little while once the 1300 line crosses. hopefully the moisture gets going better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 another burst of light snow here.Man, I wish radar looked a little better. It's gonna painful waiting for that band to develop out of nowhere today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 A lot of these bufkit profiles look terrible for cae imo. We shall see. Big changes on 6z guidance. SREF being more robust ofcourse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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