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WidreMann told us it was gonna snow thread


LithiaWx

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Very cool thanks, I'm liking that it's showing at least some snow for us.  How do you find that on the web though? I'm willing to pay if necessary!  I wonder if it would be possible to find one for KSOP, it's a much smaller airport but IMBY lol.  

 

I'm certainly liking the look of the 00z GFS though. I wish that low would go a bit farther west :( I'm just worried about the temps.  Is it really going to snow at 35F?  Why would it snow at 35, but on 1.25.13 it was ip and zr only at 26 for a high? 

 

You can use this site:

 

http://wxcaster.com/models_text.htm

 

put in your station id such as: kfay

the ones she posted were the nam sfc parameters

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Very cool thanks, I'm liking that it's showing at least some snow for us.  How do you find that on the web though? I'm willing to pay if necessary!  I wonder if it would be possible to find one for KSOP, it's a much smaller airport but IMBY lol.  

 

I'm certainly liking the look of the 00z GFS though. I wish that low would go a bit farther west :( I'm just worried about the temps.  Is it really going to snow at 35F?  Why would it snow at 35, but on 1.25.13 it was ip and zr only at 26 for a high? 

 

Depends on temps upstairs. It quite cold aloft looking at the KFAY soundings.. only the surface is above freezing.

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Very cool thanks, I'm liking that it's showing at least some snow for us.  How do you find that on the web though? I'm willing to pay if necessary!  I wonder if it would be possible to find one for KSOP, it's a much smaller airport but IMBY lol.  

 

I'm certainly liking the look of the 00z GFS though. I wish that low would go a bit farther west :( I'm just worried about the temps.  Is it really going to snow at 35F?  Why would it snow at 35, but on 1.25.13 it was ip and zr only at 26 for a high? 

I've watched it snow at 40 and have had freezing rain with temps in the teens :lol:  Here's a link to help you learn   http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/forum/30-meteorology-101/

 

SOP...

 

Station ID: KSOP Lat:   35.23 Long:  -79.40                                                         NAM Model Run:  0Z 16FEB 2013  HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX   Tot    Snowfall  Vis                Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp   mb   %  TEXT    Clouds      in    SM   0 02/16 00Z   49     32     194       2    0.00  0.00    543    555    2.5 -20.7 1014   0          CLR       0.0   15.1   3 02/16 03Z   47     34     195       3    0.00  0.00    540    552    2.8 -22.5 1013   0          CLR       0.0   15.0   6 02/16 06Z   44     35       4       8    0.00  0.00    538    549    1.9 -23.9 1014  42       060SCT107    0.0   15.0   9 02/16 09Z   41     32     355      11    0.00  0.00    534    547    0.5 -25.2 1015  87 -RA   044BKN135    0.0   15.5  12 02/16 12Z   35     32       5      11    0.02  0.00    532    543   -1.1 -26.9 1014  92 -SN   036BKN160    0.2   12.6  15 02/16 15Z   34     32     358       9    0.08  0.00    529    541   -6.1 -29.3 1015 100 SN    005OVC183    0.8    2.6  18 02/16 18Z   34     31       5       6    0.14  0.00    526    537   -6.3 -29.1 1014 100 -SN   004OVC210    1.4    1.6  21 02/16 21Z   36     31     357       5    0.04  0.00    523    532   -7.6 -31.3 1011 100       012OVC192    0.1   15.0  24 02/17 00Z   34     29     291       5    0.00  0.00    518    528   -8.3 -35.4 1012  72       034BKN088    0.0   13.6  27 02/17 03Z   34     28     311       9    0.00  0.00    515    526   -8.7 -38.2 1013  94       052BKN140    0.0   15.1  30 02/17 06Z   30     21     308      10    0.00  0.00    512    524  -10.8 -37.4 1016  78       149BKN205    0.0   15.0  33 02/17 09Z   25     18     291      11    0.00  0.00    510    523  -12.5 -37.1 1017   8       172FEW220    0.0   15.0  36 02/17 12Z   23     13     294      12    0.00  0.00    510    525  -14.5 -34.8 1019   4       053FEW108    0.0   15.0  39 02/17 15Z   29      9     308      15    0.00  0.00    513    530  -15.4 -31.9 1021   0          CLR       0.0   15.0  42 02/17 18Z   36     11     292      16    0.00  0.00    518    535  -12.9 -29.6 1021  34       045SCT066    0.0   15.1  45 02/17 21Z   37     12     297      16    0.00  0.00    523    540  -11.2 -26.9 1021  66       109BKN118    0.0   15.1  48 02/18 00Z   29     10     300       8    0.00  0.00    526    545  -11.6 -26.0 1024  34       081SCT138    0.0   15.1  51 02/18 03Z   27     10     302       3    0.00  0.00    529    550  -10.0 -23.9 1026   0          CLR       0.0   15.0  54 02/18 06Z   27     11     207       3    0.00  0.00    532    554   -7.4 -23.8 1027   0          CLR       0.0   15.1  57 02/18 09Z   27     13     213       4    0.00  0.00    534    555   -6.7 -24.1 1027   1          CLR       0.0   15.0  60 02/18 12Z   28     15     217       3    0.00  0.00    536    559   -4.9 -23.2 1029   0          CLR       0.0   15.1  63 02/18 15Z   42     19     219       8    0.00  0.00    538    562   -2.9 -22.7 1029   0          CLR       0.0   15.1  66 02/18 18Z   49     24     231       9    0.00  0.00    541    563   -0.9 -21.0 1027   0          CLR       0.0   14.9  69 02/18 21Z   50     30     213      11    0.00  0.00    543    564    0.5 -20.4 1025   3       054FEW076    0.0   15.1  72 02/19 00Z   43     32     198       8    0.00  0.00    544    565    2.5 -20.5 1026   1       128FEW188    0.0   15.1  75 02/19 03Z   37     30     203       8    0.00  0.00    544    566    2.8 -21.4 1027   0          CLR       0.0   15.1  78 02/19 06Z   34     29     206      10    0.00  0.00    544    565    3.2 -20.7 1025   0          CLR       0.0   15.0  81 02/19 09Z   33     29     207       9    0.00  0.00    545    564    3.8 -21.1 1024   0          CLR       0.0   15.0  84 02/19 12Z   32     31     214       9    0.00  0.00    546    564    3.7 -20.9 1023   5       225FEW226    0.0    6.8

 

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KSOP.txt     <---- just change the ID 

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Predicting Raleigh snowfall limits for this sysem using climo:

 

0.5-2" is probably a pretty reasonable prediction at RDU as of now. It could, of course, end up being less than 0.5". Could it be more? I suppose but I highly doubt this can end up as a major (5"+) based on the climo of no Gulf low and KATL expecting next to no measurable liquid. I'm bringing this up because I thought I saw some posts referencing a model or models that may suggest close to 0.50" liquid/ 5" snow there. I looked back at the 15 major S/IP at RDU since 1974:

 

1) This low isn't progged to be much of anything in the GOM. 14 of the 15 were Gulf/Gulf coast surface lows at some point. I found only one that was never centered along the Gulf coast or further south: the one that produced the 2/16-17/1987  5.0" snow.  Still, that low picked up a lot of gulf moisture as it traversed the inland SE US (KATL got 0.52" of rain). 

 

2) 14 of the 15 produced 0.30+" of liquid equivalent at KATL. Only one produced less: 0.08"at KATL regarding the 2/5-6/1984 RDU 6.9" snow. That one still that had some weak Gulf aspect to it.

 

3) So, with the weekend system not progged to be a Gulf/Gulf coast low per se/not progged to do much til it is off the SE coast and with KATL progged to get hardly any precip. (quite possibly not measurable), climo says this has only a very remote chance of producing 5"+ of snow at RDU. I'd say 2-3" on the high end and 1/2-2" as the most likely interval. I'd say that any model that is spitting out 5"+ of snow at RDU is very likely out to lunch.

 

I have no change in my earlier thinking (see above quote). 

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You can use this site:

 

http://wxcaster.com/models_text.htm

 

put in your station id such as: kfay

the ones she posted were the nam sfc parameters

 

Awesome, thanks for the link :)

 

Depends on temps upstairs. It quite cold aloft looking at the KFAY soundings.. only the surface is above freezing.

 

So that;s what I need to look for in soundings...I know what I'm looking AT when I see sounding, I just don;t know what I'm looking FOR when snow is in the picture.  Isn't the surface temps what really matter though?  

 

I've watched it snow at 40 and have had freezing rain with temps in the teens :lol:  Here's a link to help you learn   http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/forum/30-meteorology-101/

 

SOP...

 

Station ID: KSOP Lat:   35.23 Long:  -79.40                                                         NAM Model Run:  0Z 16FEB 2013  HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX   Tot    Snowfall  Vis                Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp   mb   %  TEXT    Clouds      in    SM   0 02/16 00Z   49     32     194       2    0.00  0.00    543    555    2.5 -20.7 1014   0          CLR       0.0   15.1   3 02/16 03Z   47     34     195       3    0.00  0.00    540    552    2.8 -22.5 1013   0          CLR       0.0   15.0   6 02/16 06Z   44     35       4       8    0.00  0.00    538    549    1.9 -23.9 1014  42       060SCT107    0.0   15.0   9 02/16 09Z   41     32     355      11    0.00  0.00    534    547    0.5 -25.2 1015  87 -RA   044BKN135    0.0   15.5  12 02/16 12Z   35     32       5      11    0.02  0.00    532    543   -1.1 -26.9 1014  92 -SN   036BKN160    0.2   12.6  15 02/16 15Z   34     32     358       9    0.08  0.00    529    541   -6.1 -29.3 1015 100 SN    005OVC183    0.8    2.6  18 02/16 18Z   34     31       5       6    0.14  0.00    526    537   -6.3 -29.1 1014 100 -SN   004OVC210    1.4    1.6  21 02/16 21Z   36     31     357       5    0.04  0.00    523    532   -7.6 -31.3 1011 100       012OVC192    0.1   15.0  24 02/17 00Z   34     29     291       5    0.00  0.00    518    528   -8.3 -35.4 1012  72       034BKN088    0.0   13.6  27 02/17 03Z   34     28     311       9    0.00  0.00    515    526   -8.7 -38.2 1013  94       052BKN140    0.0   15.1  30 02/17 06Z   30     21     308      10    0.00  0.00    512    524  -10.8 -37.4 1016  78       149BKN205    0.0   15.0  33 02/17 09Z   25     18     291      11    0.00  0.00    510    523  -12.5 -37.1 1017   8       172FEW220    0.0   15.0  36 02/17 12Z   23     13     294      12    0.00  0.00    510    525  -14.5 -34.8 1019   4       053FEW108    0.0   15.0  39 02/17 15Z   29      9     308      15    0.00  0.00    513    530  -15.4 -31.9 1021   0          CLR       0.0   15.0  42 02/17 18Z   36     11     292      16    0.00  0.00    518    535  -12.9 -29.6 1021  34       045SCT066    0.0   15.1  45 02/17 21Z   37     12     297      16    0.00  0.00    523    540  -11.2 -26.9 1021  66       109BKN118    0.0   15.1  48 02/18 00Z   29     10     300       8    0.00  0.00    526    545  -11.6 -26.0 1024  34       081SCT138    0.0   15.1  51 02/18 03Z   27     10     302       3    0.00  0.00    529    550  -10.0 -23.9 1026   0          CLR       0.0   15.0  54 02/18 06Z   27     11     207       3    0.00  0.00    532    554   -7.4 -23.8 1027   0          CLR       0.0   15.1  57 02/18 09Z   27     13     213       4    0.00  0.00    534    555   -6.7 -24.1 1027   1          CLR       0.0   15.0  60 02/18 12Z   28     15     217       3    0.00  0.00    536    559   -4.9 -23.2 1029   0          CLR       0.0   15.1  63 02/18 15Z   42     19     219       8    0.00  0.00    538    562   -2.9 -22.7 1029   0          CLR       0.0   15.1  66 02/18 18Z   49     24     231       9    0.00  0.00    541    563   -0.9 -21.0 1027   0          CLR       0.0   14.9  69 02/18 21Z   50     30     213      11    0.00  0.00    543    564    0.5 -20.4 1025   3       054FEW076    0.0   15.1  72 02/19 00Z   43     32     198       8    0.00  0.00    544    565    2.5 -20.5 1026   1       128FEW188    0.0   15.1  75 02/19 03Z   37     30     203       8    0.00  0.00    544    566    2.8 -21.4 1027   0          CLR       0.0   15.1  78 02/19 06Z   34     29     206      10    0.00  0.00    544    565    3.2 -20.7 1025   0          CLR       0.0   15.0  81 02/19 09Z   33     29     207       9    0.00  0.00    545    564    3.8 -21.1 1024   0          CLR       0.0   15.0  84 02/19 12Z   32     31     214       9    0.00  0.00    546    564    3.7 -20.9 1023   5       225FEW226    0.0    6.8

 

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KSOP.txt     <---- just change the ID 

 

Ooooh you've just woken up the weenie in me...potential for 2.5 inches of snow?  I'll take it!  Sounds a lot better than weather.com or accuweather's forecasts lol :P

 

Thanks for the links everybody, trying to teach this stuff to myself through the internet...and this site is amazing,

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http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_kcub.txt

 

GFS is showing 0.0 VIS at KCUB tomorrow with snow at hour 24.

 

It has 0.0 & 0.5 for KCAE  also.

 

.49 of snow.. wow

  18 02/16 18Z   36     35      35       7    0.23  0.00    529    540   -3.9 -28.6 1012.5  97 -SN   027BKN106 112BKN182 221FEW240   41     36  0.5
  24 02/17 00Z   34     33       3       8    0.26  0.01    518    530   -7.6 -36.3 1014.0  96 -SN   019BKN108 113BKN183 218FEW240   37     34  0.0
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KRDU NAM forcast 3.6"

Station ID: KRDU Lat: 35.87 Long: -78.78

NAM Model Run: 0Z 16FEB 2013

HR Valid 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX Tot Snowfall Vis

Deg F Deg F deg kt in. in. Thk GPH Tmp Tmp mb % TEXT Clouds in SM

0 02/16 00Z 49 33 178 2 0.00 0.00 542 553 2.6 -21.7 1013 0 CLR 0.0 15.1

3 02/16 03Z 45 34 226 2 0.00 0.00 539 550 2.7 -23.1 1013 20 114FEW150 0.0 15.0

6 02/16 06Z 42 33 350 10 0.00 0.00 536 548 1.7 -25.0 1014 52 065BKN120 0.0 15.0

9 02/16 09Z 40 32 346 12 0.00 0.00 534 546 -0.6 -26.3 1015 95 032BKN162 0.0 14.9

12 02/16 12Z 35 33 350 9 0.08 0.00 531 543 -4.9 -28.3 1015 98 -SN 007OVC168 0.9 4.5

15 02/16 15Z 36 33 356 9 0.08 0.00 528 541 -6.9 -29.5 1015 100 -SN 007OVC187 0.8 6.7

18 02/16 18Z 34 31 353 4 0.11 0.00 526 537 -7.3 -29.4 1013 100 -SN 005OVC207 1.1 5.4

21 02/16 21Z 35 32 297 6 0.05 0.00 523 532 -7.7 -31.0 1011 100 -SN 004OVC204 0.5 14.8

24 02/17 00Z 35 31 322 7 0.02 0.00 518 528 -8.2 -35.5 1011 98 -SN 017OVC095 0.2 9.7

27 02/17 03Z 34 29 333 8 0.01 0.00 515 525 -9.4 -38.7 1013 97 -SN 021BKN148 0.1 12.8

30 02/17 06Z 31 22 312 10 0.00 0.00 512 523 -10.7 -38.4 1014 90 110BKN158 0.0 15.5

33 02/17 09Z 27 18 292 11 0.00 0.00 509 521 -12.3 -37.9 1015 24 253FEW298 0.0 15.0

36 02/17 12Z 25 13 296 13 0.00 0.00 508 522 -14.4 -36.5 1017 15 089FEW128 0.0 15.0

39 02/17 15Z 29 7 307 18 0.00 0.00 510 526 -16.0 -34.6 1020 1 CLR 0.0 15.0

42 02/17 18Z 34 8 300 17 0.00 0.00 514 530 -13.9 -31.7 1020 24 046FEW068 0.0 15.1

45 02/17 21Z 35 9 299 16 0.00 0.00 519 535 -12.2 -29.1 1020 94 050BKN068 0.0 15.1

48 02/18 00Z 29 9 309 8 0.00 0.00 522 541 -12.6 -27.5 1023 56 075BKN075 0.0 15.1

51 02/18 03Z 26 10 288 6 0.00 0.00 526 546 -11.8 -25.4 1026 0 CLR 0.0 15.0

54 02/18 06Z 25 12 266 4 0.00 0.00 529 551 -9.3 -24.6 1027 0 CLR 0.0 15.1

57 02/18 09Z 25 14 233 3 0.00 0.00 532 553 -7.4 -24.9 1027 0 CLR 0.0 15.0

60 02/18 12Z 26 16 230 4 0.00 0.00 534 556 -6.5 -23.7 1028 0 CLR 0.0 15.1

63 02/18 15Z 39 18 238 7 0.00 0.00 536 560 -4.3 -22.9 1029 0 CLR 0.0 15.1

66 02/18 18Z 48 23 224 9 0.00 0.00 540 562 -1.9 -21.7 1027 0 CLR 0.0 14.9

69 02/18 21Z 49 29 211 10 0.00 0.00 543 563 0.4 -20.8 1025 6 163FEW168 0.0 15.1

72 02/19 00Z 42 31 198 8 0.00 0.00 543 564 2.7 -20.5 1025 4 068FEW123 0.0 15.1

75 02/19 03Z 37 30 206 9 0.00 0.00 543 565 3.3 -21.7 1026 0 CLR 0.0 15.1

78 02/19 06Z 33 29 205 9 0.00 0.00 543 563 3.8 -21.3 1025 0 CLR 0.0 15.0

81 02/19 09Z 32 28 210 10 0.00 0.00 544 563 4.0 -21.2 1023 0 CLR 0.0 15.1

84 02/19 12Z 32 30 215 9 0.00 0.00 545 563 3.3 -21.2 1022 0 CLR 0.0 11.3

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So that;s what I need to look for in soundings...I know what I'm looking AT when I see sounding, I just don;t know what I'm looking FOR when snow is in the picture.  Isn't the surface temps what really matter though?  

To me, an ideal sounding for snow would be the entire column below freezing, but you can still get snow to accumulate even with above freezing surface temps; If it's falling heavy enough, it'll accumulate. As for surface temps, it really depends on what type of precip you're looking for. Simply put, if it's warm aloft (~850mb) and below freezing at the surface, you'll most likely be having freezing rain. Sleet is usually a result of warming just above freezing roughly around 850mb. Refer to these graphics to see what I'm trying to explain: 

Sleet:

ptype6.gif

Freezing Rain:

ptype3.gif

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Buckeye, I've never seen NOAA change the forecast so many times.  One second it's slight chance snow for Lexington.. then its rain/snow. then back and forth.. never ends.. now it says possibly snow 10pm til midnight for us in this area in the wording sat night.

 

EDIT: The euro goes neg around al/ga from what i see on free maps.. so.. it caved.  model consensus is pretty much reached now. whew!

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The Carolina's have seen some of their best snows from this kind of lee side developments. Lets hope this comes to fruition. Thanks for sharing!

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Frank Strait's video blog is kinda funny.  He says something along the lines of:

 

"warmer bl temps, no predicting a huge storm"

"but if this heavier band sets up it could be really heavy and it scares us and could break the forecast"

"dont be surprised to go to bed, wake up, and think about having to shovel the half inch to inch"

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brad p saying there is a possibility for thundersnow as well.  if i experience thundersnow i may have to be revived.

 

for the love of Pete... highly doubtful

 

I'm all about snow and understand the minimal conditional instability of the trowel, but let's be realistic here... we're not dealing with a powerhouse upper level low

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