WidreMann told us it was gonna snow thread

[BullCityWx]

24 hour precip valid at Hour 30(6z on Sunday)

[Shawn]

24 hour precip valid at Hour 30(6z on Sunday)

 

That blue gets me up by Lake Murray, hopefully it gets Buckeye fairly close by also!

[buckeyefan1]

24 hour precip valid at Hour 30(6z on Sunday)

That is a beautiful map  

[DopplerWx]

what i am encouraged by the most is how the high res nam showed almost immediate snow fall with little rain at the start, if that verifies then accums will be higher than progged.

 

also queencitywx check your pms.

[buckeyefan1]

That blue gets me up by Lake Murray, hopefully it gets Buckeye fairly close by also!

I'm just on the edge of the bullseye  

[FLO]

Im on the lake too. Right in ballentine/chapin.

That blue gets me up by Lake Murray, hopefully it gets Buckeye fairly close by also!

[NCsandhills]

How can I tell the qpf of a certain location?  Trying to find KFAY but dont know where to go.  Local forecast for tomorrow says 60% chance of light rain with snow mixed in during the day.  Tomorrow night says 50% chance of snow showers, doesn't say anything about accumulation.  They were putting brine on the roads today in FAY.

[buckeyefan1]

How can I tell the qpf of a certain location?  Trying to find KFAY but dont know where to go.  Local forecast for tomorrow says 60% chance of light rain with snow mixed in during the day.  Tomorrow night says 50% chance of snow showers, doesn't say anything about accumulation.  They were putting brine on the roads today in FAY.

Here is what the nam said for fay

 

 

Station ID: KFAY Lat:   34.98 Long:  -78.87                                                         NAM Model Run:  0Z 16FEB 2013  HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX   Tot    Snowfall  Vis                Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp   mb   %  TEXT    Clouds      in    SM   0 02/16 00Z   50     35     204       2    0.00  0.00    544    556    2.0 -20.6 1014   0          CLR       0.0   15.1   3 02/16 03Z   47     36     192       5    0.00  0.00    542    553    2.3 -21.6 1014   0          CLR       0.0   15.0   6 02/16 06Z   41     37     262       3    0.00  0.00    540    551    2.3 -22.8 1013  19       079FEW096    0.0   15.0   9 02/16 09Z   40     33       2       9    0.00  0.00    537    548    2.0 -23.5 1014  78       078BKN101    0.0   15.0  12 02/16 12Z   38     33       4      11    0.00  0.00    534    545    1.2 -24.9 1013  72       058BKN124    0.0   15.1  15 02/16 15Z   41     34       9      13    0.01  0.00    531    542   -2.9 -27.7 1014 100       012OVC160    0.0   12.6  18 02/16 18Z   37     34     352      11    0.10  0.00    529    539   -5.6 -28.7 1013 100 -RA   007OVC194    0.5    4.9  21 02/16 21Z   35     32     350       8    0.12  0.00    525    534   -6.8 -30.3 1011 100 -SN   005OVC205    0.9   16.4  24 02/17 00Z   35     32     312       7    0.00  0.00    519    529   -8.2 -33.2 1012  95       019BKN082    0.0   15.3  27 02/17 03Z   35     32     287       8    0.00  0.00    516    526   -8.7 -37.1 1013  99       035OVC099    0.0   15.0  30 02/17 06Z   33     27     313      10    0.00  0.00    513    525  -10.2 -37.3 1015  89       084BKN130    0.0   15.0  33 02/17 09Z   27     20     289      11    0.00  0.00    511    524  -11.7 -36.6 1016  27       160SCT173    0.0   15.0  36 02/17 12Z   25     17     289      13    0.00  0.00    511    525  -13.8 -34.5 1018  15       028FEW081    0.0   15.0  39 02/17 15Z   31     10     305      18    0.00  0.00    513    530  -15.5 -31.7 1021   0          CLR       0.0   15.0  42 02/17 18Z   36     10     296      17    0.00  0.00    517    535  -13.4 -29.7 1021  22       044FEW062    0.0   15.1  45 02/17 21Z   39     12     291      17    0.00  0.00    523    540  -11.0 -26.8 1021  72       069BKN077    0.0   15.1  48 02/18 00Z   31     12     297       9    0.00  0.00    526    545  -11.5 -26.1 1024  36       140SCT207    0.0   15.1  51 02/18 03Z   27     13     302       4    0.00  0.00    529    550  -10.1 -24.0 1026   0          CLR       0.0   15.0  54 02/18 06Z   27     13     225       3    0.00  0.00    532    554   -7.7 -23.6 1027   0          CLR       0.0   15.1  57 02/18 09Z   27     16     214       3    0.00  0.00    534    555   -6.6 -24.0 1027   0          CLR       0.0   15.0  60 02/18 12Z   28     18     218       3    0.00  0.00    536    559   -5.3 -23.1 1029   0          CLR       0.0   15.1  63 02/18 15Z   42     18     225       7    0.00  0.00    538    562   -3.4 -22.6 1030   0          CLR       0.0   15.1  66 02/18 18Z   49     24     231       9    0.00  0.00    541    564   -1.3 -21.0 1028   0          CLR       0.0   14.9  69 02/18 21Z   51     28     217      11    0.00  0.00    543    565    0.2 -20.4 1026   0          CLR       0.0   15.1  72 02/19 00Z   41     32     198       8    0.00  0.00    544    566    2.2 -20.2 1026   0          CLR       0.0   15.1  75 02/19 03Z   36     30     194       9    0.00  0.00    544    566    3.4 -21.3 1027   0          CLR       0.0   15.1  78 02/19 06Z   35     30     211      10    0.00  0.00    544    565    2.8 -20.8 1026   0          CLR       0.0   15.0  81 02/19 09Z   33     31     205       9    0.00  0.00    545    565    3.6 -21.1 1024   0          CLR       0.0   14.9  84 02/19 12Z   32     32     212       9    0.00  0.00    546    565    3.9 -21.1 1024   9       011FEW017    0.0    0.0

[Shawn]

I was thinking back to that omega map posted for the CAE area... wouldn't that give the possibility of thundersnow?

[DeepSouthSC]

Im on the lake too. Right in ballentine/chapin.

 

 

I'm in that spot, as well (practically, located in Blythewood).

[BullCityWx]

I was thinking back to that omega map posted for the CAE area... wouldn't that give the possibility of thundersnow?

 

The severe parameters on the sounding indicate severe thunderstorms probable. Thats the kind of lift that comes through.

 

Total Totals Index:       55.59 C Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable  Vertical Totals Index:  28.09 C  Cross Totals Index:     27.50 C

[BullCityWx]

We are also saturated all the way to the -35C(!) layer in the atmosphere. Combine that with excellent lift and you've got the potential for heavy snow.

[Shawn]

We are also saturated all the way to the -35C(!) layer in the atmosphere. Combine that with excellent lift and you've got the potential for heavy snow.

 

Thanks man!  I've been trying to learn a lot about severe weather and still lacking quite a bit especially not having a physics course under my belt.

[BullCityWx]

IF the GFS is right, I really like this setup for my location. You've got crashing 850's which will enhance fluff factor, saturation up to 35C and omega that is off the charts.

[DopplerWx]

brad p saying there is a possibility for thundersnow as well.  if i experience thundersnow i may have to be revived.

[Shawn]

We are also saturated all the way to the -35C(!) layer in the atmosphere. Combine that with excellent lift and you've got the potential for heavy snow.

 

wow, and i thought the -15-20 saturation produced the biggest flakes?  What size would you guestimate from @ -35?  or is that not where the snow growth region is for this?

[HKY_WX]

Timing looks rough for this one, as the gfs boundary layer is pretty warm east of the foothills (mid 30's). I think a genral T to 2 inches is what i could go with from hky east to raleigh. more as you go east.

[beanskip]

You know where to get a RGEM cumulative QPF map? Trying to add together the mm totals on meteocentre, but there is too much variance to really know. Best as I can tell, you (and I) get hit pretty good.

We are also saturated all the way to the -35C(!) layer in the atmosphere. Combine that with excellent lift and you've got the potential for heavy snow.

[BullCityWx]

You know where to get a RGEM cumulative QPF map? Trying to add together the mm totals on meteocentre, but there is too much variance to really know. Best as I can tell, you (and I) get hit pretty good.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na&run=00〈=en

 

hasnt updated to saturday's run yet.

[ncwinterwxman]

You might see some graupel with that kind of saturation and convection...

IF the GFS is right, I really like this setup for my location. You've got crashing 850's which will enhance fluff factor, saturation up to 35C and omega that is off the charts.

[BullCityWx]

actually, this is the RGEM:

http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?run=00&map=na&mod=gemreg〈=en

[BullCityWx]

You might see some graupel with that kind of saturation and convection...

 

Is it too much of a good thing?

[WidreMann]

I come back and see not only that this thread is now named after me, but that this storm is not going to do much except rain and then snow at Elizabeth city again. I was mentally prepared. The entire time I was dancing, I was thinking about how I'd come back to find the 00z models showing a drier and warmer solution, and I have not be disappointed.

[Shawn]

Bufkit looks good for KCAE and confirms the snow maps and even better with all this convection.  Time will tell.  Ground temps will temper accumulations though I'm sure.

[beanskip]

OK, this is what I was looking for -- total QPF from 0z RGEM.

Note the small swath of 15-20 mm (.6-.78 inches) just west of Columbia.

Most of upstate SC (and some of southern NC) is in the 10-15 mm area (.4-.6)

Take that, GFS!

[DopplerWx]

I come back and see not only that this thread is now named after me, but that this storm is not going to do much except rain and then snow at Elizabeth city again. I was mentally prepared. The entire time I was dancing, I was thinking about how I'd come back to find the 00z models showing a drier and warmer solution, and I have not be disappointed.

10/10

[jaxjagman]

Good luck,but i really dont see how you get anything with the 925's -5..850's  -10 and surface 40+..good luck

 

Edit:outside the mts of course

[ncwinterwxman]

I am afraid so...depends totally on your location and is a pain in the neck to try and nail down this far out...something to look for in the nowcasting phase...one location is going to get dumped on while another gets light rain/drizzle...did I mention how much I HATE these marginal events?

Is it too much of a good thing?

[calculus1]

OK, this is what I was looking for -- total QPF from 0z RGEM.

Note the small swath of 15-20 mm (.6-.78 inches) just west of Columbia.

Most of upstate SC (and some of southern NC) is in the 10-15 mm area (.4-.6)

Take that, GFS!

 

The Canadian is not good news for folks further east from RDU.  These maps show mostly rain as the p-type during the event.  Precip reaches Raleigh around 13Z.  Then, it takes a while to progress eastward, but the vast majority of it falls as a mix to rain, if these maps are to be believed.  West of Raleigh appears to do okay on precip type, but volume is really low.

 

13Z:

 

 

 

16Z:

 

 

 

21Z:  You do see that local precip maximum show up in the Upstate of SC in this image, though.

 

[NCsandhills]

Here is what the nam said for fay

 

 

Station ID: KFAY Lat:   34.98 Long:  -78.87                                                         NAM Model Run:  0Z 16FEB 2013  HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX   Tot    Snowfall  Vis                Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp   mb   %  TEXT    Clouds      in    SM   0 02/16 00Z   50     35     204       2    0.00  0.00    544    556    2.0 -20.6 1014   0          CLR       0.0   15.1   3 02/16 03Z   47     36     192       5    0.00  0.00    542    553    2.3 -21.6 1014   0          CLR       0.0   15.0   6 02/16 06Z   41     37     262       3    0.00  0.00    540    551    2.3 -22.8 1013  19       079FEW096    0.0   15.0   9 02/16 09Z   40     33       2       9    0.00  0.00    537    548    2.0 -23.5 1014  78       078BKN101    0.0   15.0  12 02/16 12Z   38     33       4      11    0.00  0.00    534    545    1.2 -24.9 1013  72       058BKN124    0.0   15.1  15 02/16 15Z   41     34       9      13    0.01  0.00    531    542   -2.9 -27.7 1014 100       012OVC160    0.0   12.6  18 02/16 18Z   37     34     352      11    0.10  0.00    529    539   -5.6 -28.7 1013 100 -RA   007OVC194    0.5    4.9  21 02/16 21Z   35     32     350       8    0.12  0.00    525    534   -6.8 -30.3 1011 100 -SN   005OVC205    0.9   16.4  24 02/17 00Z   35     32     312       7    0.00  0.00    519    529   -8.2 -33.2 1012  95       019BKN082    0.0   15.3  27 02/17 03Z   35     32     287       8    0.00  0.00    516    526   -8.7 -37.1 1013  99       035OVC099    0.0   15.0  30 02/17 06Z   33     27     313      10    0.00  0.00    513    525  -10.2 -37.3 1015  89       084BKN130    0.0   15.0  33 02/17 09Z   27     20     289      11    0.00  0.00    511    524  -11.7 -36.6 1016  27       160SCT173    0.0   15.0  36 02/17 12Z   25     17     289      13    0.00  0.00    511    525  -13.8 -34.5 1018  15       028FEW081    0.0   15.0  39 02/17 15Z   31     10     305      18    0.00  0.00    513    530  -15.5 -31.7 1021   0          CLR       0.0   15.0  42 02/17 18Z   36     10     296      17    0.00  0.00    517    535  -13.4 -29.7 1021  22       044FEW062    0.0   15.1  45 02/17 21Z   39     12     291      17    0.00  0.00    523    540  -11.0 -26.8 1021  72       069BKN077    0.0   15.1  48 02/18 00Z   31     12     297       9    0.00  0.00    526    545  -11.5 -26.1 1024  36       140SCT207    0.0   15.1  51 02/18 03Z   27     13     302       4    0.00  0.00    529    550  -10.1 -24.0 1026   0          CLR       0.0   15.0  54 02/18 06Z   27     13     225       3    0.00  0.00    532    554   -7.7 -23.6 1027   0          CLR       0.0   15.1  57 02/18 09Z   27     16     214       3    0.00  0.00    534    555   -6.6 -24.0 1027   0          CLR       0.0   15.0  60 02/18 12Z   28     18     218       3    0.00  0.00    536    559   -5.3 -23.1 1029   0          CLR       0.0   15.1  63 02/18 15Z   42     18     225       7    0.00  0.00    538    562   -3.4 -22.6 1030   0          CLR       0.0   15.1  66 02/18 18Z   49     24     231       9    0.00  0.00    541    564   -1.3 -21.0 1028   0          CLR       0.0   14.9  69 02/18 21Z   51     28     217      11    0.00  0.00    543    565    0.2 -20.4 1026   0          CLR       0.0   15.1  72 02/19 00Z   41     32     198       8    0.00  0.00    544    566    2.2 -20.2 1026   0          CLR       0.0   15.1  75 02/19 03Z   36     30     194       9    0.00  0.00    544    566    3.4 -21.3 1027   0          CLR       0.0   15.1  78 02/19 06Z   35     30     211      10    0.00  0.00    544    565    2.8 -20.8 1026   0          CLR       0.0   15.0  81 02/19 09Z   33     31     205       9    0.00  0.00    545    565    3.6 -21.1 1024   0          CLR       0.0   14.9  84 02/19 12Z   32     32     212       9    0.00  0.00    546    565    3.9 -21.1 1024   9       011FEW017    0.0    0.0

 

Very cool thanks, I'm liking that it's showing at least some snow for us.  How do you find that on the web though? I'm willing to pay if necessary!  I wonder if it would be possible to find one for KSOP, it's a much smaller airport but IMBY lol.  

 

I'm certainly liking the look of the 00z GFS though. I wish that low would go a bit farther west I'm just worried about the temps.  Is it really going to snow at 35F?  Why would it snow at 35, but on 1.25.13 it was ip and zr only at 26 for a high?