Poimen Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Bump. Can someone with more more education than me comment on my analysis? I think you’re seeing it right, the issue is that the shortwaves in question maybe outside of the NAM’s grid. So it is best to reserve judgment until the globals come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not bragging on education, but the continuation of the 6z GFS doesn't seem to dig near as much as we'd all like. Agree, but the question was about the differences in the 6z and 12z NAM. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Unusual and surprising to see this from the NWS in Peachtree City(KFFC). They must be buying into a wetter solution for Fri-Sat period. They have a 30% chance of rain in Macon on Saturday with a high of 50. They're so conservative that when they post "30% chance" of anything 96 hours away they are sure of the event and must have heard from God. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE FINALLY PULLS THE REMAINING PRECIP OUT OFTHE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY ANDTHURSDAY NIGHT. FOR FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF CANADAAND INTO THE MIDWEST DEEPENING THE H5 TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA ANDTHE GREAT LAKES. IN RESPONSE AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THECWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATEDWITH THIS FRONT WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW LEVELTHICKNESS PROGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAFRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPS WILL KEEP MOST OFTHE PRECIP IN THE LIQUID FORM OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THEEXTREME NORTH WHERE THERE WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE PRECIP SHOULDBE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z SUN. A STRONG NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW IN THEMOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT COULD HOLD MOISTURE AND LIGHT SNOW IN FOR ALITTLE LONGER AND WILL KEEP A 20/30 POP GOING FOR THE NORTHEASTMOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE COMING MOREIN LINE WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS...BUT THEY STILL APPEAR TOO WARM ANDWILL NEED TO DROP THEM A FEW DEGREES.MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THISWILL HOLD THROUGH MONDAY. I love how they say a rain/snow mix for the extreme north and in my forecast they have a 20% chance of rain/snow mix for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hmmm...don't think the 12z is gonna cut it. Norther energy is not as strong and looks to far ahead of our energy out west which is going into TX @90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12z GFS turned our rickety coach into a pumpkin on this run. Nothing for even NC on the surface. Watch the Euro tease us this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Well @117 light flurries over ILM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The GFS says see you next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC Snow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12Z didn't look too good this run for anyone. Maybe some coastal flurries... on to Dr. Yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Too much ridge in the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The GFS says see you next year Hey I'll take my flurries and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The 12z gfs looked similar to the 0z euro in regards to the sfc low location out in the atlantic and also where the trough took on a neg tilt. As much as I hate to say it looks like the gfs took a step towards the euro on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yuck.... I can't complain, I could see flurries. But still. I feel like this situation is a bit like that deep trough that came in last year in early January. ILM had some flurries there too but they were In the middle of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 You guys give up too easy. But it is interesting how the areas in the red oval seem to have a much easier time getting snow that areas in the green polygon (lower right): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 You guys give up too easy. But it is interesting how the areas in the red oval seem to have a much easier time getting snow that areas in the green polygon (lower right): f120.gif Why does the DGEX still have it ? The MJO may head into the warm phases after this meaning essentially it is game over after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Why does the DGEX still have it ? The MJO may head into the warm phases after this meaning essentially it is game over after this. Nah, the DGEX is wide right too. Or maybe Anyway, the pattern is just too progressive it seems, which fits with this winter. But it is still several days away, and the precip blows up just off the coast. But a couple hundred miles of westward shift would put a lot of areas in play. But, it a progressive pattern. But the chances that the models have the key shortwaves accurately modeled are still questionable at best. But the eastward trend is noteworthy right now. But I still give it a 4 out of 10 for at least some areas in the SE seeing some snow. The MJO in the cold phases really hasn't yielded a lot of abnormally cold, so I'm not sure how much influence it will eventually have on the pattern. Besides, Larry still thinks that a cold first half of March is in play. Maybe he'll be right. His research is very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Why does the DGEX still have it ? The MJO may head into the warm phases after this meaning essentially it is game over after this. Proclaiming game over after what comes or doesn't come out of this? Wow, that's bold. 1) Regardless of what does or doesn't come from this one, it is only mid-Feb. and this hasn't been a high threat situation from the get-go...just a possibility/speculation. 2) The correlation of MJO phases with the chance of wintry wx in the SE US is rather weak. It is far from black and white. There have been many instances of SE winter storms near/during the so-called unfavorable phases. If I get the chance, I'll see if I saved any analysis on this. 3) Even if it were black and white, MJO predictions by models are not all that reliable in general. 4) The analogs I've been following suggest a decent shot at a good wintry period (say ~1-2 weeks) in the SE US between late Feb. and mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Why does the DGEX still have it ? The MJO may head into the warm phases after this meaning essentially it is game over after this. Yeah, I said this yesterday but Robert disagreed with me. Time will tell but I don't see much on the horizon and time is running out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not that it's probably worth much, but at 72 hours the GGEM has a pool of rain over the NE GOM that was not on the GFS. Probably wrong, but that's sort of what we want to see at that time if there is going to be any significant development out of this for the SE coast. Curious to see where the model goes from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Trying to understand 12k Ukie -- failing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Trying to understand 12k Ukie -- failing. Very strange that low must be popping off the coast between 96 and 120...but that huge turn it makes is very weird...and then the bomb it has lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 LMAO at CMC -- relentless with a cutter -- now it's more of a Lakes cutter than an Apps runner. Takes surface low from Arkansas to southern Ind. to Ohio by Saturday noon. Pretty incredible disparity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Gets down to 996 mb over Ohio. I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Why does the DGEX still have it ? The MJO may head into the warm phases after this meaning essentially it is game over after this. Do you believe that the MJO is the main driver of winter weather in the SE or is this statement just hyperbole? Honest question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Its been over. Without euro it wont happen. Time for spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Gets down to 996 mb over Ohio. I don't get it. Makes no sense with all of the other models being suppressed. By the way, the 12z GFS Ensemble mean went DRY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not trying to wishcast, but the models tend to lose "the storm" around this time period (5 days out). Give this another day or two before jumping off the bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Mods please lock. What the Heck-A-Moly!!!! Who made you the thread killer? Canadian is still showing something and we are still days away and, and , and if and buts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It is time to get the infamous northwest trend now, ha... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It is time to get the infamous northwest trend now, ha... That will start about 36 hours from the event. Maybe 0z Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 LOL!!! Some of you all are crazy! It's Tuesday... the energy coming over the ridge hasn't even been sampled good yet and we have cliff jumpers. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1012 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2013VALID 12Z FRI FEB 15 2013 - 12Z TUE FEB 19 2013THE PATTERN IS AN ACTIVE ONE FOR THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES THISPERIOD, WITH ENERGY TRAVERSING THE NATION COAST TO COAST. THIS ISPEAK CLIMATOLOGY FOR WINTER STORMS OVER THE EASTERN STATES, SO ANYPHASING OF THE SPLIT FLOW COULD RESULT IN A HIGHLY IMPACTFULCYCLONE FOR THAT REGION. THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS FATED ON PHASINGTHAT MAY PROVE TO HAVE SUCH IMPACT. THE FIRST WILL BE COMPLEXCYCLOGENESIS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST DAY 4. THE 00Z/12 GEM GLOBALPHASES ENERGY MORE QUICKLY AND AGGRESSIVELY THAN THE OTHER MODELS,WITH THE 00Z/12 GEFS MEAN IMPRESSIVELY DEVELOPED AS WELL. THE00Z/12 ECENS MEAN INDICATES MODEST PHASING JUST OFFSHORE, SLIGHTLYMORE DEVELOPED THAN EITHER THE 00Z/12 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF OR THE00Z/12 DETERMINISTIC GFS. CHOSE THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE SKILLFULECENS MEAN FOR THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM--THE BAGGINESS IN ITSSURFACE PRESSURES OFFSHORE ALLOWING WIGGLE ROOM FOR FURTHERTRENDING. THE SECOND SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS EXPECTED TO COALESCEOVER THE GREAT PLAINS LATE DAY 6 INTO DAY 7. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE OFSUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO VIGOROUSLY TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO, WITHIMPORT FOR BOTH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS WELL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORTINTO THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH. THE LION'S SHARE OFENERGY FEEDING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE FAR WEST MIDPERIOD IN THE MANNER OF MOST OF THE SHORTWAVES AT THE MEDIUM RANGEOVER THAT REGION. THESE "INSIDE SLIDERS" PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANTIMPORT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BY THE NATURE OF THEIR TRAJECTORIES. ASWITH THE EAST COAST SYSTEM EARLIER IN THE FORECAST, THE ECENS MEANAPPEARS TO REPRESENT A MIDDLE ROAD AND IS THE MOST COHERENT OF THERECENT GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE TEMPORAL PROGRESSION OF THEFLOW.CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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