cmh90 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Is this precip moving to the west? If it is moving west what does this mean for eastern NC? Hour 36 00z gfs. I'm really digging this right here. I'm sure it will change but we can all hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 IMO There won't be any advisories/warnings issued until morning shift. Might have to stay up for that! Its usually like 3 am in the morning for their next discussion, then they are updated by like 430-5am. Sometimes there is a new one around 12am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Yeah, my area may have a WWA issued some time tonight with these last two model runs from KCAE. I'll check out the bufkit soundings in a bit. CAE(as of 10:00pm) says probably not..... .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERNCONUS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL ENHANCEMOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. H5TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO -30C AND H850 AROUND -5C BYMIDDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHSUPPORT PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD HIGHER POPS WITHQPF AMOUNTS ONE-TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.MODEL FORECAST OF 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPERATURESSUPPORT SNOW. HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE RAINUNLESS SIGNIFICANT WET-BULB COOLING OCCURS WHICH IS QUESTIONABLEBECAUSE OF EXPECTED LIGHT AMOUNTS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELYWARM AND WITH MARGINAL NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE TIME OFDAY...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION SHOULD OCCUR. PRECIPITATIONSHOULD END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOWPRESSURE OFF THE COAST LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. THEGUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TOO WARM SATURDAY BASED ON THE COLDUPPER- LEVEL TROUGH AND EXPECTED CLOUDINESS. WENT WITH HIGHSRANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S WEST TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST. CLEARINGSKIES AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS INTHE 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Just for the record, QPF Forecast for RDU... 12z GFS had 0.69" 18z GFS had 0.62" 0z GFS has 0.44" (0.13" falls after 3pm) I imagine we have at most 0.2-0.25" of QPF of snow potential with temps in the mid 30's, we need the heavier rates that were showing up on earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 CAE(as of 10:00pm) says probably not..... .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERNCONUS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE They've had that for hours when some of the data didn't look as pronounced as tonight. I actually had a response from KCAE and they told me it's pretty tricky for here (to forecast). I think they may bite on these 00z runs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 CAE(as of 10:00pm) says probably not..... .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERNCONUS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL ENHANCEMOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. H5TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO -30C AND H850 AROUND -5C BYMIDDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHSUPPORT PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD HIGHER POPS WITHQPF AMOUNTS ONE-TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.MODEL FORECAST OF 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPERATURESSUPPORT SNOW. HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE RAINUNLESS SIGNIFICANT WET-BULB COOLING OCCURS WHICH IS QUESTIONABLEBECAUSE OF EXPECTED LIGHT AMOUNTS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELYWARM AND WITH MARGINAL NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE TIME OFDAY...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION SHOULD OCCUR. PRECIPITATIONSHOULD END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOWPRESSURE OFF THE COAST LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. THEGUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TOO WARM SATURDAY BASED ON THE COLDUPPER- LEVEL TROUGH AND EXPECTED CLOUDINESS. WENT WITH HIGHSRANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S WEST TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST. CLEARINGSKIES AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS INTHE 20S. I'm sorry but light amounts? really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Various reasons...dry slotting, overall organization of the bands (convective vs. stratiform), etc. If this thing bombs at the coast, then why doesn't the precip increase as you go from SW to NE? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Just for the record, QPF Forecast for RDU... 12z GFS had 0.69" 18z GFS had 0.62" 0z GFS has 0.44" (0.13" falls after 3pm) I imagine we have at most 0.2-0.25" of QPF of snow potential with temps in the mid 30's, we need the heavier rates that were showing up on earlier runs. I was watching the 0z gfs come in on the 500mb map and thought it was going to be a great run. When I saw the sfc map I was surprised to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I was watching the 0z gfs come in on the 500mb map and thought it was going to be a great run. When I saw the sfc map I was surprised to be honest. Same here, actually. It wasn't bad at all, but I really thought it could have been special. Apparently not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 WV is showing the trough is now pulling back to the coastline and sharping up in the gulf. So many pieces of energy! http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I'm sorry but light amounts? really? CAE will always be the last to pull the trigger on winter precip I think they came from the ffc office Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I was watching the 0z gfs come in on the 500mb map and thought it was going to be a great run. When I saw the sfc map I was surprised to be honest. That I agree with, same for the NAM, which shows the upside potential isn't what we had hoped for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 No changes for me....good luck everyone. I have 'analyzed' this storm for Charlotte (CLT) and Raleigh (RDU). For Charlotte (at CLT), I've got a mix of rain and snow in the morning, and either a rain/snow mix or transitioning to all snow into early afternoon. Precip will overall be on the light side. Trace to a light dusting for Charlotte (GSP going with 'around an inch' of snow for CLT) For Raleigh (at RDU), I've got a mix of rain and snow in the morning, transitioning to all snow in the afternoon. Light to moderate precip, but snow amounts limited to a Trace to 1 inch (RAH going with something similar for RDU it looks like). With respect to temperatures, the low level cold air advection is moving in from the NW & NNW. The mountains will likely play some level of hindrance to the speed in which the cold air moves in east of the mountains. This is different from cold air damning where the cold air is moving in unimpeded from the N / NE. For temperatures I used a combination of GFS/GFS MOS/NAM/NAM MOS...reviewing both temps aloft and surface wet-bulb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Perhaps of interest for some... Below are the 0z GFS and NAM forecasts for hr 3 and also the 3z RAP at initialization. How are they doing for verification so far? 0z GFS, hr 3 0z NAM, hr 3 3z RAP, hr 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Just for the record, QPF Forecast for RDU... 12z GFS had 0.69" 18z GFS had 0.62" 0z GFS has 0.44" (0.13" falls after 3pm) I imagine we have at most 0.2-0.25" of QPF of snow potential with temps in the mid 30's, we need the heavier rates that were showing up on earlier runs. WRAL mets being so conservative it's ridiculous...I hope for their sake they are right.. "But WRAL Chief Meteorologist Greg Fishel said a blanketing of the white stuff is unlikely." Nate Johnson on twitter is tweeting "#sNoBigDeal" They are hugging the SREF ensemble mean it looks like, a good T-1" in Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GFS Says it snows here until after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I suppose you mean the temp; that's the front passing. You'll initially get a spike and then the drop. MBY is 37 but I expect a sudden rise very soon. Yeah. The giveaway is the little "º" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Just for the record, QPF Forecast for RDU... 12z GFS had 0.69" 18z GFS had 0.62" 0z GFS has 0.44" (0.13" falls after 3pm) I imagine we have at most 0.2-0.25" of QPF of snow potential with temps in the mid 30's, we need the heavier rates that were showing up on earlier runs. The thing that scared me about the earlier runs was the fact we were right on the edge of the heavier precip. One little shift east and we would have nothing (or very little). I like this look much better. Having more people to our west and east under what is still good qpf is the place to be. Also other models did trend towards the GFS and it (of course) trended a little towards them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 At 10:54pm RAH just alerted more potential counties in SE NC they too may be upgraded to WWA before dawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 No changes for me....good luck everyone. Great write up griteater. I think the Trace to 1" for the RDU area is a good call. I went w/ 1 to 2 inches so I'm hoping to reach that 1" mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I would agree with these #s. Good luck indeed...we are going to need it. Another one of these thread the needle events...***sigh*** No changes for me....good luck everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Look at this sick lift focused right over Cola: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Perhaps of interest for some... Below are the 0z GFS and NAM forecasts for hr 3 and also the 3z RAP at initialization. How are they doing for verification so far? 0z GFS, hr 3 0z NAM, hr 3 3z RAP, hr 0 I don't know. They all look about the same as the current conditions to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Nice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Is the driver of the bus the energy in OK? Or is it in Arkansas or is it coastal TX and LA. I am confused when I look at water vapor loops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Man, it's hard to get a fix on the total QPF from the RGEM, but it seems pretty prodigious -- I think more copious than even the GFS, in CLT and GSP metro areas, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Look at this sick lift focused right over Cola: That is quite impressive. Gets Saluda, Lexington, Richland, Hell.. a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 OK...there are so many different pieces it is easy to get confused Is the driver of the bus the energy in OK? Or is it in Arkansas or is it coastal TX and LA. I am confused when I look at water vapor loops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Nice.. good gracious, once that pivots east itll be right under where ill be...rates will be inssane under those returns, charlotte will get popped if that verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I'll be personally rooting for this ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.