Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,587
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

WidreMann told us it was gonna snow thread


LithiaWx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Still pretty dry for wNC as compared to the GFS. Still lacking a good consensus up here.

Ya the NAM has not looked good at all here but the GFS looks real good for the mountains. We shall see how it plays out. I really do not trust the NAM at all. The last several little events it has not done that well on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 vs 0z, 24hr QPF prior to the stamp, not much difference...

 

 

axis a hair further west

That 40 mile shift is huge out here. Went from almost zilch to .25+. Impossible to know where the sharp cutoff will set up until now cast but in my area it's gonna be feast or famine across someone's county. Still liking the potential for northern coastal plain. Maybe clouds will hold off for you guys and fill in fast furious by sunrise. Noticed RWI cooling rapidly. Of course they sit in a prime spot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That 40 mile shift is huge out here. Went from almost zilch to .25+. Impossible to know where the sharp cutoff will set up until now cast but in my area it's gonna be feast or famine across someone's county. Still liking the potential for northern coastal plain. Maybe clouds will hold off for you guys and fill in fast furious by sunrise. Noticed RWI cooling rapidly. Of course they sit in a prime spot.

 

I haven't been outside but it must have clouded over.  I'm up 2º to 44º.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still pretty dry for wNC as compared to the GFS. Still lacking a good consensus up here.

Ya the NAM has not looked good at all here but the GFS looks real good for the mountains. We shall see how it plays out. I really do not trust the NAM at all. The last several little events it has not done that well on.

Yea, hoping the GFS keeps us in the 1-3" range. Right now NAM is a dusting at best. I agree, and stated it earlier in the thread, NAM pretty much awful the last 8-12 weeks. Not just snow forecasts, but rain and QPF too. Terrible job as of late.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Be interesting to see where, and if, that band sets up across central Ga.  The earlier Nam had a thin band of frozen on the northern edge, and the late run has the precip a county south of me, lol.  If it's cold enough I'd expect to see some onset sleet, and that'd be worth staying up for..if it's cold enough, and dry enough up there to cool the column.  T

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yea, hoping the GFS keeps us in the 1-3" range. Right now NAM is a dusting at best. I agree, and stated it earlier in the thread, NAM pretty much awful the last 8-12 weeks. Not just snow forecasts, but rain and QPF too. Terrible job as of late.

Yep I 100 percent agree! I think we will be ok. I think the GFS is handeling this system much better than the NAM. Still snowing here at work right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One trend from the RAP's last two runs is delaying the onset of precip. The 21z run at 15 hours had a nice stripe (up to .05-.1 an hour) breaking out over the I-85 corridor in SC and up through Charlotte. The 1z RAP at 10 hours (same time frame) has virtually nothing, save for one little spot of .01-.03 in east Georgia.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One trend from the RAP's last two runs is delaying the onset of precip. The 21z run at 15 hours had a nice stripe (up to .05-.1 an hour) breaking out over the I-85 corridor in SC and up through Charlotte. The 1z RAP at 10 hours (same time frame) has virtually nothing, save for one little spot of .01-.03 in east Georgia.

You talked about BL issues earlier tonight. Would a later onset of precip lessen the BL issues if there are any? More time before precip would mean more time for CAA to come in.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Something going on with RAP QPF output.

Here is 3 hours worth of NAM QPF, valid 12z Saturday.

post-1293-0-30615500-1360982503_thumb.pn

Now here is the same three hour period on the most recent 1z RAP

post-1293-0-62088400-1360982554_thumb.pn

I swear I've looked at this 100 times making sure I have apples to apples.

The thing is, the 700 rh looks great on the RAP.

I know its precip is notoriously unreliable -- this just seems odd. It's also a big delay/reduction from RAP runs just a few hours ago. Hopefully not sniffing something out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can't help but get a little excited looking at the latest RAP and Hi-Res NAM. Both of them dead center the lee-side trowel over mby.  I'm gonna temper my expectations and assume the trowel sets up further east. I've been burned by this same type setup a few times in the late 90's/early 2000's. 

 

I do feel confident that some one in the upstate who maximizes their qpf from the leeside trough will get a quick 2 or 3 inches of snow.  If I had to guess, my money would be somewhere between southern greenville and Union counties.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...