Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I'm with you Burger. We have seen more energy, less energy, separate energy, energy further west, north and south. None of it really has changed the surface features very much. The last run it was further west and more interaction but the precip went east. Somebody tell us what to root for! Come on guys. This is an easy one. We want to see a rapidly deepening Low just off the GA coast moving north very slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 0z NAM @ 12 hours looking slightly better than 18z NAM @ 18 hours, especially with the bundled energy in the base of the trof and the tilt more on the neutral side, but barely... bodes well for future frameslooks like some backing winds for a short time on this run so a good trendprob. germans at this point if someone has already posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I don't like wow ever since he started spelling his user name backwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Well the 00z is wetter for central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Well the NAM isn't trending worse, that's for sure...lets see what happens, much better than 12z, looks a smidge better with the trough from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I feel pretty good here in Cola. I would too! I fully agree with that! I wish I could feel as confident as the both of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Yeah, it has gone from 62 at 3pm to 42 now. Looks like we will have our usual front row seat for this one. Whether a coastal ,cad always right on some sort of transition line. Off topic where did you get that prime rib at on VD you where bragging about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I wish I could feel as confident as the both of you I'm in your same boat! We have the precip but that darned BL scares me. Even if its only up to 950mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Snow/sleet here now. Very light to moderate flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 @18 precip looks good, charlotte right on the edge of .1" def a wetter run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 At 21 hours, 0z NAM picking up on the omega that 0z RAP showed at 18 hours -- located over the upstate of S.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 at 21hr panel near Greenville/Spart/Gaffney/Union will take it and run hope the 4KM and the RAP back up this better bundle at 500mb and quicker turn toward neutral on their later runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Totally different than 18z with regards to the western extent of the precip field. Also, much more precip down into GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 seems to shift some of the precip back west, nam sure has been flip flopping. nevertheless looks like in the central/eastern carolinas .1-.25" is a safe bet qpf wise, localized aread maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 prob. germans at this point if someone has already posted It's always the Germans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Hmmm... RAP is getting juicer as well . NAM is .25 from CAE to RDU just east of CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Totally different than 18z. Also, much more precip down into GA. Still pretty dry for wNC as compared to the GFS. Still lacking a good consensus up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 RAP already picking up on the lift over you -- see post on 0z run. Love that our tilt is still trending (sounds like some sort of pinball comment) 0z got neutral faster than 18z, which was faster than 12z. eff ya at 21hr panel near Greenville/Spart/Gaffney/Union will take it and run hope the 4KM and the RAP back up this quicker turn toward neutral on their later runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I thought the surface would be better than that based upon the 500mb map, shows that the ceiling of 0.5"+ QPF is probably not realistic west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 0z NAM, could be a little quicker as often seen, faster to exit than initially advertised, but improved axis should equal a better QPF output, returned from the ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 At 21 hours, 0z NAM picking up on the omega that 0z RAP showed at 18 hours -- located over the upstate of S.C. Oh don't do this to me. The ups and downs with the models today= I am still going with nothing more than a few sprinkles for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 here is a little diff looking QPF map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The NAM looks to have precip moving in here tomorrow morning. Might be good for BL temp worries. The High-Res NAM is fairly juicy for C NC and SC through hr 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Check out hour 18 of the 0z RAP. That's .1 of precip in ONE HOUR in extreme NW S.C. Even a dummy like me knows BL temps won't be an issue under that dot!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Looks like we will have our usual front row seat for this one. Whether a coastal ,cad always right on some sort of transition line. Off topic where did you get that prime rib at on VD you where bragging about. Liberty Restaurant in High Point. I'll be going back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 18 vs 0z, 24hr QPF prior to the stamp, not much difference... axis a hair further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It may be that the BL issues we face have more to do with how little the temps fall tonight rather than how much they rise tomorrow. We had dropped to 46 with clear skies right after dark, but have risen to 48.4 with the clouds. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The hi res nam looks good for SC in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Check out hour 18 of the 0z RAP. That's .1 of precip in ONE HOUR in extreme NW S.C. Even a dummy like me knows BL temps won't be an issue under that dot!! raptenthdot.png Not gonna lie when I say burrel2 and oconeexman deserve a good snowfall. They've been shafted for too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 RAP already picking up on the lift over you -- see post on 0z run. Love that our tilt is still trending (sounds like some sort of pinball comment) 0z got neutral faster than 18z, which was faster than 12z. yep, the base of the trof is much more bundled on the 0z and 1z RAPs than previous runs and also more bundled at the base of trof on the 0z at 12-15hrs compared to what the 18z had at 18-21 hr good RH @ 700mb in the lee-side trowel region in Upstate SC to places like Polk, Rutherford & Cleveland counties in NC... I like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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