WidreMann Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yep. Sounds about right. I'll make my final call after the flakes or raindrops stop falling tomorrow night. Probably the safest bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 From HPC....I suppose 'Heavy Snow' means accumulating snow, but not sure...(this is the Day 1 map...they haven't updated the Day 2 map since last night) They have that "Heavy Snow Possible" shading pretty far west, FWIW. I've been working all day. Can someone catch me up. Are we canceling or uncanceling this event? Or is it going to be recanceled, baked and undecanceled? All of the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 doesnt look drier to me? unless this is the 12z ensemble image? It shifted the precip shield a bit further eastward. GSO was in the 0.25-0.5" range in 12z and now it's been shifted ~25 miles further east. Really, though, we're just splitting hairs at that point. It's pretty similar and QPF is always going to variate from run to run. Looks very close to the 12z. Well, it definitely looked drier to me and the axis is further out to sea as you can see upstream in the Boston area. I wasn't trying to wishcast, rain on any parades, nor was I only focused on my back yard. Here they are back to back: 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Sounds about right. I'll make my final call after the flakes or raindrops stop falling tomorrow night. Probably the safest bet. See what I mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 They have that "Heavy Snow Possible" shading pretty far west, FWIW. All of the above. The HPC maps are always a bit broad-brushed in that regard. I don't blame them. I wouldn't want the lines to actually mean something specific when you can't be that precise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I've been working all day. Can someone catch me up. Are we canceling or uncanceling this event? Or is it going to be recanceled, baked and undecanceled? I gotcha bro. It sucked for a while. But then there was more precip and we're looking good. But then there were boundary layer issues and the precip moved east by 25 miles. So we're back down. But then the RAP went negative earlier and the warm layer was shallower than we thought, so we're good again. But then the RAP stopped the negative earlier trends because the Tx shortwave got stronger and slower. Now we're down again. And that's where we are. At this point, count on some light rain with maybe a dusting or cloudy skies with highs in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 That was genius Brick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I gotcha bro. It sucked for a while. But then there was more precip and we're looking good. But then there were boundary layer issues and the precip moved east by 25 miles. So we're back down. But then the RAP went negative earlier and the warm layer was shallower than we thought, so we're good again. But then the RAP stopped the negative earlier trends because the Tx shortwave got stronger and slower. Now we're down again. And that's where we are. At this point, count on some light rain with maybe a dusting or cloudy skies with highs in the 40s. WOW! That's a +1 on the synopsis of the thread. I guess I'm not the only one that reads every post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Respectfully though that was a totally different event and setup. That one didn't have -5 to -8 850's. 850's were always right around or just above 0. I think the bigger factor is going to be ground doing the damage on this one. Unless we see some really heavy returns for more than 30 - 45 minutes the ground temp may actually play a factor. Given how cold it is aloft though it should be easy to overcome the BL issues. 850s are more than cold enough to support all snow... per soundings, 925s also support snow with anywhere from 0c to -2C which means the warm layer is very shallow Burger is correct on the ground being the only limiting factor when inconsistent snow showers come down in some areas... dominant p-type looks like snow... proper forecast is for flurries and snow showers most likely with some spotty light rain possible in areas where heavy precip doesn't develop I'm tired of the little bullsh** systems (all we have had this winter is wanna-be systems) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Goes hand in hand with predicting snow around here. Well I've read a lot forecast here and I've called for 1 to 2 inches for the RDU area. You were surprised at the lower prdeictions and saying nobody knows what's going to happen. I'm just curious what your forecast is? You've been around long enough to have an idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Well I've read a lot forecast here and I've called for 1 to 2 inches for the RDU area. You were surprised at the lower prdeictions and saying nobody knows what's going to happen. I'm just curious what your forecast is? You've been around long enough to have an idea. Somewhere between nothing and a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Somewhere between nothing and a foot of snow. That's true for every single day but once a decade or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Just got in from cutting the grass(rye). Anyway one big plus is its clear as a bell and 0 wind. So we out to be able to maximize some radiation all cooling for a while. I've had 2 hard freezes the past couple of nights. Got down to 26 last night. Unfortunately hit 60 today. !atleast northeast nc is gonna go above their seasonal average in all likelihood after this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I gotcha bro. It sucked for a while. But then there was more precip and we're looking good. But then there were boundary layer issues and the precip moved east by 25 miles. So we're back down. But then the RAP went negative earlier and the warm layer was shallower than we thought, so we're good again. But then the RAP stopped the negative earlier trends because the Tx shortwave got stronger and slower. Now we're down again. And that's where we are. At this point, count on some light rain with maybe a dusting or cloudy skies with highs in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Somewhere between nothing and a foot of snow. Impressive! I see you've learned a lot over the years. So if we get nothing then you shouldn't be surprised and get all upset likes you did the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 850s are more than cold enough to support all snow... per soundings, 925s also support snow with anywhere from 0c to -2C which means the warm layer is very shallow Burger is correct on the ground being the only limiting factor when inconsistent snow showers come down in some areas... dominant p-type looks like snow... proper forecast is for flurries and snow showers most likely with some spotty light rain possible in areas where heavy precip doesn't develop I'm tired of the little bullsh** systems Winner!.....lock it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I gotcha bro. It sucked for a while. But then there was more precip and we're looking good. But then there were boundary layer issues and the precip moved east by 25 miles. So we're back down. But then the RAP went negative earlier and the warm layer was shallower than we thought, so we're good again. But then the RAP stopped the negative earlier trends because the Tx shortwave got stronger and slower. Now we're down again. And that's where we are. At this point, count on some light rain with maybe a dusting or cloudy skies with highs in the 40s. for the love of Pete, this ^^ just as MSUwx has also said, qpf is the concern... warm layer is very shallow (and very cold 850s look prime) it's probably better to concentrate on the good when there are a tad more variables arguing for this tease of a system than negative variables arguing against it regardless, nothing more than a dusting in spotty places looks possible to me, but I hope I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 So, flip a coin for this one and you have just a good a chance of being right I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I'm tired of the little bullsh** systems (all we have had this winter is wanna-be systems) This! I'm ready for a true snowstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Leave it to the banter thread bud. That's not true. Sorry you'll miss out but don't take it out on NC folks. This was never a Georgia snowstorm.Lmao. Did you actually think I expected to see snow? How am I taking it out on yall? Obviously you haven't been seeing these other posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I've become less than impressed for this event here in Columbia, SC. Looks like an annoying rain with some flakes mixed in before we could be cold enough at the surface.. by then the moisture will be gone.The bulk will be right at peak heating of the day imo, and we should be above 40 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 don't know who to believe, channel 13 news asheville weather says Asheville won't see hardly anything. GSP has all of asheville and hendersonville under wwa and 1-2 inches of snow and the higher mtns. 3-4,,,,SO WHO DO YOU BELIEVE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 This! I'm ready for a true snowstorm! I'll second and third and fourth that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Few drops of rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Question? Can we combine the obs and disco thread for this one? Leave it pinned, not like traffic is going to be exceptionally high, may help in moving the whole disco forward, rather than going back and forth. Thoughts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Snowing at sugar mountain. Was clear when I came in at sunset, surprised at the radar when I took a peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 don't know who to believe, channel 13 news asheville weather says Asheville won't see hardly anything. GSP has all of asheville and hendersonville under wwa and 1-2 inches of snow and the higher mtns. 3-4,,,,SO WHO DO YOU BELIEVE Definitely NOAA especially when it comes to GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Question? Can we combine the obs and disco thread for this one? Leave it pinned, not like traffic is going to be exceptionally high, may help in moving the whole disco forward, rather than going back and forth. Thoughts... Sounds good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Question? Can we combine the obs and disco thread for this one? Leave it pinned, not like traffic is going to be exceptionally high, may help in moving the whole disco forward, rather than going back and forth. Thoughts... Works for me, but it goes against prevailing trends. More threads than a sock factory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Question? Can we combine the obs and disco thread for this one? Leave it pinned, not like traffic is going to be exceptionally high, may help in moving the whole disco forward, rather than going back and forth. Thoughts... Great idea. I miss the old days when it was all under one umbrella. But times are different/busier traffic so I understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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