msuwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z GFS has extracted 2m temps in CLT of 36 at 15z and 34 at 18z, If that's correct, that would be fine to whiten some grassy areas. I am far more concerned about QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 21z RAP looks like it may be slightly negatively tilted at hr 18 and maybe a bit slower? Compare that to the 18z NAM for the same time: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/18/nam_namer_021_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 and as burger stated, this is a much diff setup than the last event. 850s are much much colder and there is a higher probability of the cold air mixing to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Well the RAP is trending our southern energy stronger...probably won't make a difference but interesting to see it going back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 rap does seem to be slower with the southern energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Fair point, especially agree with ground temps. I don't know, when I see 37F at the surface for more than half of the precip from the wettest model, it does not induce confidence. Would be absolutely thrilled to just see the ground covered. True, I'm not buying more than an inch out of this one TBH. I just really badly and I mean badly want to just see some freaking flakes falling from the sky that are larger than gnats. I think I'll at least get that out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looking at hr 30 for RDU on the GFS, 950 mb is barely below freezing, so we can assume that the above freezing layer is from ~950 mb on down to the surface. The surface temperature is 36F+ verbatim and the wetbulb is also about the same. By hr 36, temperatures have crashed to 31F and things look a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GFS ensemble mean went drier and further out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Well the RAP is trending our southern energy stronger...probably won't make a difference but interesting to see it going back. The RAP has a pretty solid band of precip along the I-85 corridor from GSP up into VA at the end of the run, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Each run of the RAP also seems to be taking a more negative tilt earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GFS ensemble mean went drier and further out to sea. doesnt look drier to me? unless this is the 12z ensemble image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 doesnt look drier to me? unless this is the 12z ensemble image? It shifted the precip shield a bit further eastward. GSO was in the 0.25-0.5" range in 12z and now it's been shifted ~25 miles further east. Really, though, we're just splitting hairs at that point. It's pretty similar and QPF is always going to variate from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Woo hoo! Little dot of snow falling per the RAP surface maps at hour 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Woo hoo! Little dot of snow falling per the RAP surface maps at hour 15 The RAP looks like a good setup for the I-85 corridor. I do hope it is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The RAP looks like a good setup for the I-85 corridor. I do hope it is right. The problem is by hour 18 it's just showing a cold rain. Either way I like the trends the last few runs of the RAP. We'll know for sure by this time tomorrow whether it's total bust or only partial bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 You guys trip me out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I am not saying it is going to snow or it is not going to snow. I will say there is a lot of model hugging going on right now. The models cannot be taken at verbatim espc. this close to an event. Maybe the RAP & HRRR to give you a guide as to what to look for. This is rapidly becoming a nowcast for this event. Here is a quote from last nights afd from GSP. "IT IS NOTAT ALL UNCOMMON FOR THE MODELS TO POORLY HANDLE THE TIMING OF THETRANSITION OF A SHORT WAVE TO A NEGATIVE TILT PHASE." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Well the front has come barreling through Weaverville. We were 55.2° @ 3:00 pm current temp is 42.9°! Update: had a little shower move thru & temp is now down to 40.6° @ 7:03 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 doesnt look drier to me? unless this is the 12z ensemble image? Looks very close to the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 At least he tried to explain the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buncombe Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Beautiful snow at cataloochee ranch this afternoon. Precip was all snow. Ground covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Comparing 21z RAP to 18z, I believe the trend toward moving to negative tilt more quickly has ended. This might be because it is also restrenghtening and slowing down the Texas s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 You guys trip me out..... Agree, storm cancel - mods lock the thread, no wait, its back on, too dry, too warm, bl sucks, slight negative tilt, crap post, ill report it, the SE crew never ceases to amaze me, class act, grade A weeniers! 18z NAM - looked first at thickness plots on Allan's site, Coastal Plain west of hwy 17 support SN as the dominant p-type, 850-700mb thick sub 1520, and 1000-850 sub 1300. Do not see any cases on the nonogram past events plot with this not being the case. Next pull the sounding, likely SN, it would appear that the above freezing layer extends about 700', certainly shallower than 1k. After 1pm though, saturation in the nucleation zone is gone, even at 1pm it looks unimpressive, based on this model, the bulk of the precip comes through between 1pm and 7pm. 24hr on the thick PGV sounding 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 150kt 275mb Jet streak ftw, just noticed that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 From HPC....I suppose 'Heavy Snow' means accumulating snow, but not sure...(this is the Day 1 map...they haven't updated the Day 2 map since last night) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 All we really know is there is potential for something. What actually happens is anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I've been working all day. Can someone catch me up. Are we canceling or uncanceling this event? Or is it going to be recanceled, baked and undecanceled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 All we really know is there is potential for something. What actually happens is anyone's guess. You just won first prize for the most vague weather-related statement ever made on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I've been working all day. Can someone catch me up. Are we canceling or uncanceling this event? Or is it going to be recanceled, baked and undecanceled? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 You just won first prize for the most vague weather-related statement ever made on this forum. Goes hand in hand with predicting snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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