beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 LOL. It's just that the places it was less robust all happen to be on the western flank of the precip shield. That's OK, though, you keep trying to win the argument. Don't let those pesky facts get in the way. Not a shift east, the qpf is just not as robust this run. It didn't move from one place to another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 How deep is the near surface warm layer? That will be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 LOL. It's just that the places it was less robust all happen to be on the western flank of the precip shield. That's OK, though, you keep trying to win the argument. Don't let those pesky facts get in the way. If that blob of QPF that was over the GSP area was, say over Columbia this run, then I'd buy the argument. The 18z run is drier for those west of 77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The failboat is loading up at the dock,and preparing to embark tomorrow! I can easily see GSP area staying around 42-44 over night and just getting a few sprinkles tomorrow,then the cold floods in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Hr 30 is a snow sounding for RDU but can't see hr 27 and that's the one I wanted to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Well compared to the last run the southern vort on the RAP is a little stronger and it appears to have a better tilt by a hair. Probably grasping at straws but anything is still up in the air. I agree with Skip it really sucks how sfc. temps went warmer compared to just a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 18Z Hi-Res NAM simulated radar still shows evidence of the lee side trough development enhancing precipitation in the early afternoon. The next several frames after this one show decent returns over the southern piedmont of NC too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 18z RGEM trends much drier, esp. after the initial onset. Nice burst of precip to start up I85 corridor from GSP to Kings Mountain -- unfortunately, 2m freezing line is hung up on the mountains. I think a good name for this storm might be FROPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Good catch. I think that trough development is going to be the only hope for anyone CLT or west. Intial precip will be rain, then maybe just some flurries. 18Z Hi-Res NAM simulated radar still shows evidence of the lee side trough development enhancing precipitation in the early afternoon. The next several frames after this one show decent returns over the southern piedmont of NC too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Of course, it doesn't really translate into much accumulated snowfall, if any. In fact the 18Z Hi-Res NAM is quite bearish on any snowfall anywhere in the state outside of the mountains: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Finally!!!! Everyone is coming to the Daaarrrrrk side of the event. A wonderful realization of the noneventage of it all. If only you knew the PAWA!!!! All these non-events though are going to make the next real one all the more sweet! Please keep the whining to the banter thread. This doesnt belong here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 .WINTRY WEATHER TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND... .A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE PASSING FRONT WILL MIX WITH...AND THEN CHANGE TO...SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PRODUCING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER BACK TOWARD THE TENNESSEE BORDER AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BITTER WIND CHILLS. NCZ053-065-501-503-505-507-509-160500- /O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0011.130216T1100Z-130216T2300Z/ BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...HENDERSONVILLE 302 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...INCLUDING ASHEVILLE. * HAZARDS...ACCUMULATING SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 All of this worry about boundary layer temps should calm down. At least where the heavier bands set up the surface should overcome any issue. Although I am referring more NE towards SE VA and NE NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Ah, the annual weenie cliff diving 24 hrs before the event. People for those under the heavier returns bl temps can be overcome, for those relying on .01 of precip for snow it probably isn't going to happen for you this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 FFC saying all of North and most of Central GA could get a dusting of snow tonight and early tomorrow morning. Hope they are right. I bet they are wrong but i hope they are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 All of this worry about boundary layer temps should calm down. At least where the heavier bands set up the surface should overcome any issue. Although I am referring more NE towards SE VA and NE NC. You can overcome the boundary layer with the amount of lift coming through tomorrow. I'm more worried about QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The is exactly the BS I heard before the last "event." Your .01 of precip statement is a total straw man. I'm down for .25 of QPF per the GFS (a lot less than in January when I saw ZERO snow) and there is no dynamic cooling to help overcome BL issues. It's not weenie cliff diving to look at soundings and trends and point out that they don't actually show much if any snow for a particular area. A better definition of a weenie is someone who blithely ignores clear data. Ah, the annual weenie cliff diving 24 hrs before the event. People for those under the heavier returns bl temps can be overcome, for those relying on .01 of precip for snow it probably isn't going to happen for you this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Just don't see this being more than a cold rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I wish I shared your confidence. It wasn't but a few weeks ago that it was raining like a July gulley washer and it still wasn't enough to cool me off enough to change it over to snow. I agree, QPF is also a concern, but even if the GFS pans out, we'll be lucky to get the ground covered. The only caveat is if a lee trough sets up after the low level cold air arrives. You can overcome the boundary layer with the amount of lift coming through tomorrow. I'm more worried about QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 .WINTRY WEATHER TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND... .A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE PASSING FRONT WILL MIX WITH...AND THEN CHANGE TO...SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PRODUCING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER BACK TOWARD THE TENNESSEE BORDER AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BITTER WIND CHILLS. NCZ053-065-501-503-505-507-509-160500- /O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0011.130216T1100Z-130216T2300Z/ BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...HENDERSONVILLE 302 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...INCLUDING ASHEVILLE. * HAZARDS...ACCUMULATING SNOW. I just don't see it. And im not sure why they have an advisory for 1.4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Just don't see this being more than a cold rain event. Agreed. At the rate it's going, we'll be lucky to get below 40 degrees tomorrow. Only exception is the mountains. Warmer and drier is the way my friends. No point in fighting it while grasping at straws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I wish I shared your confidence. It wasn't but a few weeks ago that it was raining like a July gulley washer and it still wasn't enough to cool me off enough to change it over to snow. I agree, QPF is also a concern, but even if the GFS pans out, we'll be lucky to get the ground covered. The only caveat is if a lee trough sets up after the low level cold air arrives. Respectfully though that was a totally different event and setup. That one didn't have -5 to -8 850's. 850's were always right around or just above 0. I think the bigger factor is going to be ground doing the damage on this one. Unless we see some really heavy returns for more than 30 - 45 minutes the ground temp may actually play a factor. Given how cold it is aloft though it should be easy to overcome the BL issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 FFC saying all of North and most of Central GA could get a dusting of snow tonight and early tomorrow morning. Hope they are right. I've lost .01 on the 18z, but Ptree City has me under sn/rain for tonight and tomorrow morn. It's not the front precip I'm interested in but that batch back in Texas coming up...let's see how far up it comes. It it's there, and comes up at all, instead of going across. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The Lee trough can be a bad thing in both downsloping and in terms of interference with low level CAA from the north. This could be a factor in those BL problems. If you think the cliff diving is bad now wait and see what happens if this one doesn't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Fair point, especially agree with ground temps. I don't know, when I see 37F at the surface for more than half of the precip from the wettest model, it does not induce confidence. Would be absolutely thrilled to just see the ground covered. Respectfully though that was a totally different event and setup. That one didn't have -5 to -8 850's. 850's were always right around or just above 0. I think the bigger factor is going to be ground doing the damage on this one. Unless we see some really heavy returns for more than 30 - 45 minutes the ground temp may actually play a factor. Given how cold it is aloft though it should be easy to overcome the BL issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Where lift is weaker and thus precip rates lighter boundary layer warmth will be an issue. However under the nice band that should form that won't be as big a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Good point on the trough. The best way to avoid cliff diving is to never climb up there in the first place! The Lee trough can be a bad thing in both downsloping and in terms of interference with low level CAA from the north. This could be a factor in those BL problems. If you think the cliff diving is bad now wait and see what happens if this one doesn't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 KILM discusses the bl temp issue... SNOW A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY LATE SATURDAY AS THE DYNAMIC COREOF THE UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE DOESREMAIN SOME QUESTION REGARDING ADEQUATELY COLD SURFACE TEMPSDURING BEST MOISTURE PASSAGE...SHARPLY COLDER AIR ALOFT AND STEEPMID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY PROMOTE DEEP MIXING OF COLD AIR INTO THELOW-LEVELS. THIS WILL LIKELY PROMPT A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TOSNOW OR A MIX THEREOF STARTING IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON INLANDAND SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ZONES SATURDAY EVENING ANDTAPERING OFF THE COAST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Where lift is weaker and thus precip rates lighter boundary layer warmth will be an issue. However under the nice band that should form that won't be as big a problem. Back in the later 90s the Raleigh area had a situation like that where we received 5" of snow (at 33 degrees) and my father out in the foothills just received rain. He had much lighter qpf and the cold was not able to work down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I saw it snow lightly earlier this year at 42. I have also seen it rain with snow mixed in at 35 this year. You can't just look at surface temps and assume one way or the other, like what is going on. How deep is the surface warm layer? What are the thickness profiles? That stuff matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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