rduwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It seems like any model that isnt showing snow for NC is being thrown out. Well then it's obvious you haven't been reading or can't read. That is just a ridiculous statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I think people are wisely factoring in the marginal boundary layer we will be dealing with. We just kind of ignored that no the non-event in January. Not going to do that this time. Even the juicy 12z GFS, which gave Shelby almost .5 of qpf, had a temp of 34 at the height of the storm. While the GFS clown map put out 3-5 inches, there is no way that is going to happen coming off a 60-degree day in late February. I guess so. Just all day it seemed people were saying it was trending better and wetter and sounded excited about things, but not sure why if it's just for an inch or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It seems like any model that isnt showing snow for NC is being thrown out. Leave it to the banter thread bud. That's not true. Sorry you'll miss out but don't take it out on NC folks. This was never a Georgia snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 One thing I've noticed on the last couple runs we've looked at (including the early hours of the 18z GFS which just started) is that the trough itself is deeper. That is, it is plunging further south. I don't think that is necessarily a good thing, but it is a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I am interested in the 18z GFS. If it keeps pace, then that will be three GFS runs in a row with a significant snow for much of NC. The fact that its ensembles have pretty much been in line with the op (or actually a little further west than the op, if anything) leads me to believe that perhaps it has some validity. As of right now, though, we have to be careful. BL temps could be troublesome. Soil temps and the higher sun angle (during the daytime portion) will play a role if the precip is on the lighter side (not so much if we get good rates). We'll see. I see this as a situation where it could bust either way, high or low. There may be some spotty areas with significant accumulations while areas 25 miles to either side get little to nothing. Only time will tell. It's best to play it safe at this time, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Don't worry about the NAM. It hasn't had a good QPF forecast since December. Last Friday it suggested we would get 1.2" of rain that night, while the GFS had us less than .4". Actual amount was .38". And we all know how the NAM was way off with the upper level low system back in January (while the GFS essentially nailed it). Until the NAM can prove it can be accurate again within 24 hours, I'm not putting much stock in it. Notice GSP's discussion didn't talk about the NAM at all. And for good reason. Yep right on the money. Looks like we re going to get into the snow tonight. Should be fun to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nice. I counted 9 that place some heavy returns back west around snc/sc. 9 has always been my number homeboy. Hope I'm fishing in some snow tomorrow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Moisture slightly more east for the 18z GFS at 18hrs and 21 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It seems like any model that isnt showing snow for NC is being thrown out. Dude, you live in Waycross. Any storm that gave you snow would be named, "Winter Storm Fluke" by the Weather Channel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Not much difference at all at 18 hours at 5h compared to 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 @hr24, drier...doesn't look like this will be a game changer...might be less qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Guess I got excited for nothing. From the talk here yesterday and today, it really sounded like more than just a dusting to an inch around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I am confused, too. People all day have been saying the trend was better, the models have been wetter, this was a great run. And now people are saying just a dusting to an inch when the models show 4 to 5. It just seemed from the disussion that it was a bigger deal than that. Ok, let's think about this logically for a minute. Yesterday, there was a big fat nothing forecast. Today, there's a WAA for 1-2 inches because the trends are what? That's right. Wetter. So let's take the high end of the guidance for RDU (most likely unwise to do, but for our example, let's use it), around .5 in. of precip. Now let's assume (probably again, a best case scenario) that .1 falls as rain before changing to snow. Let's be reasonable and say that when the snow starts, it won't be super heavy for the most part. Therefore, let's give up another (being conservative) .1 for melting on contact. That leaves .3 to fall as snow that would presumably accumulate (not taking into account any additional melting that would occur with temps above freezing. All of those best-case assumptions gives you 3 inches of snow, which is not far from 1-2 that is forecast by the WAA. Again, this is based on the modeling today, which trended from nothing to something. More than likely, less precip will fall than what the highest QPF model is showing. More than likely, it will take longer to change from rain to snow. More than likely, the ground would melt some of the snow because more than likely, it won't come down super hard. Could things change for the better? Maybe. Could things change for the worse? Maybe. But right now, that's where it stands. Does that help clear up the confusion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It's more than slightly if you live at my house -- clear trend west with the 700 mb rh. 12z GFS may have been a cruel tease for west of CLT crowd. Moisture slightly more east for the 18z GFS at 18hrs and 21 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Ok, let's think about this logically for a minute. Yesterday, there was a big fat nothing forecast. Today, there's a WAA for 1-2 inches because the trends are what? That's right. Wetter. So let's take the high end of the guidance for RDU (most likely unwise to do, but for our example, let's use it), around .5 in. of precip. Now let's assume (probably again, a best case scenario) that .1 falls as rain before changing to snow. Let's be reasonable and say that when the snow starts, it won't be super heavy for the most part. Therefore, let's give up another (being conservative) .1 for melting on contact. That leaves .3 to fall as snow that would presumably accumulate (not taking into account any additional melting that would occur with temps above freezing. All of those best-case assumptions gives you 3 inches of snow, which is not far from 1-2 that is forecast by the WAA. Again, this is based on the modeling today, which trended from nothing to something. More than likely, less precip will fall than what the highest QPF model is showing. More than likely, it will take longer to change from rain to snow. More than likely, the ground would melt some of the snow because more than likely, it won't come down super hard. Could things change for the better? Maybe. Could things change for the worse? Maybe. But right now, that's where it stands. Does that help clear up the confusion? I guess. Just saying from the talk here yestedray and today, it really sounded like a much bigger deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 18z GFS looks a little more negatively tilted at hr 24, but I'm probably overly nitpicking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Actually, not that much drier -- widespread .25+ for much of the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 RDU 0.5-0.75" per the 18z GFS. 0.25-0.5" area extends back to the I-85 corridor or so. Nice to see it stay consistent. Can't wait to see the ensembles... EDIT: On second look, the GFS did take the heavier precip back a bit east. It's not much different, but just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Man, the BL issues are huge, though. That's going to be the topic of conversation in the obs thread tomorrow, I fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Clear trend east right? Matt said that was showing on his RPM model. This has always had east NC written all over it. Nah not really, still keeps widespread .25 over most of NC. .50+ RDU area and maybe points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It's 37 in Shelby for more than half of my .25 or so of QPF. Dusting to 1/2 inch sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 2m temps might be a problem, especially the further east you go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nah, not really. Clear move east in the GFS precip field. All except far western tip was covered by .1 inch on 12z run. Now, almost all the mountains are under .1 inch. There was a .5 inch blob in the upstate of S.C. which is gone. I-40 corridor was covered by .25, now GSO to HKY to Lenior is all in the .1+ shading. Nah not really, still keeps widespread .25 over most of NC. .50+ RDU area and maybe points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It's 37 in Shelby for more than half of my .25 or so of QPF. Dusting to 1/2 inch sounds about right. Couldn't agree more. Timing is really going to be the killer here. We need this one to come through with the sun down, not gonna happen and it's really going to limit totals where it does snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 FFC saying all of North and most of Central GA could get a dusting of snow tonight and early tomorrow morning. Hope they are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Man, the BL issues are huge, though. That's going to be the topic of conversation in the obs thread tomorrow, I fear. I agree skip!!! I was just looking at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 If anything does fall back this it should stick easy. Good rstes too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nah, not really. Clear move east in the GFS precip field. All except far western tip was covered by .1 inch on 12z run. Now, almost all the mountains are under .1 inch. There was a .5 inch blob in the upstate of S.C. which is gone. I-40 corridor was covered by .25, now GSO to HKY to Lenior is all in the .1+ shading. Not a shift east, the qpf is just not as robust this run. It didn't move from one place to another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Dude, you live in Waycross. Any storm that gave you snow would be named, "Winter Storm Fluke" by the Weather Channel Waycross is about as far north as Waco, TX and I know Waco gets snow occasionally. Don't see why it would be so unusual for Waycross to get snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Every single model shows that 2m temps are a huge problem (especially the further east you go). Are they to be believed? I really don't know, but every model seems to consistently say they are. Be forewarned and don't be surprised if we have a lot of cold rain reports coming out tomorrow and a delayed changeover to snow. We saw this wreak havoc with the 1/17 event, so there is reason to be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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