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WidreMann told us it was gonna snow thread


LithiaWx

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Just took a peek at SV maps...so suppressed I don't even think the coast gets flurries....cold as heck though, that's a mean trough.

 

Well, bah.  Figures.

 

The Euro is kind of on its own now, though.  The Canadian shows an Apps Runner, I believe.  The NOGAPS shows this bizarre Miller B.  The UK Met seemed to show some sort of Miller A scenario and the GFS, while weak, was definitely a decent storm in the Carolinas.

 

And then we have the Euro bone dry.  Let's see who wins, I guess.

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6z GFS continues to show a lighter event for NC and Virginia. Looks like a large part of NC receives 1-2 inches. At RDU qpf looks to be around .15. If there are higher snow ratios this could a little over 2 inches. But this was one of many more runs of the models; that will trend one way or the other right up to the event. The most important think at this range is that we still have something to track. I still think there is a chance of a more significant storm.

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Also, RAH is in a wait and see mode.

 

<middle paragraph in long range>

A STRONGER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL USHER A
MARKEDLY COLDER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER IN ITS RESOLUTION ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE GFS
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION
WOULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC LATE SATURDAY
MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ECMWF MUCH DRIER BUT
STILL POSSESS ENOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE TO GENERATE A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. DUE TO
DISPARITIES...FAVOR POPS NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME AND
KEEP BULK OF PRECIP IN THE LIQUID FORM (DUE TO ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND TENDENCY FOR MODEL GUIDANCE TO BE TOO COLD INITIALLY WITH THESE
OUTBREAKS). WILL CONFINE MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL-FAVORED NW PIEDMONT UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN
FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.


 

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This thing is trending away fast. GFS down to just a tenth of precip for most of NC and the western third is almost out of the action. Euro not coming on board and we are in its wheelhouse. It's odd, but the CMC is the only thing keeping my hopes up -- even though its way west it still means a middle of the road solution could bail us out.

 

Starting to have that "bet the streak" feeling, though.

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I suspect the trend will break one way or another with today's runs, either 12Z or 0Z. I think there is a fairly strong signal for a coastal storm of some degree to develop Saturday. The question is will it be out to sea, or will the H5 cooperate and give us something better. Hoping for the best as we near the end of yet another lackluster winter.

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I suspect the trend will break one way or another with today's runs, either 12Z or 0Z. I think there is a fairly strong signal for a coastal storm of some degree to develop Saturday. The question is will it be out to sea, or will the H5 cooperate and give us something better. Hoping for the best as we near the end of yet another lackluster winter.

I've seen these types of setups before, and I would think more so the 12z runs tomorrow would be more of an indicator, being about 72 hours out. Even then you could see variability.

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If accupro maps were working right now I could tell you what the Euro EPS run showed on the the surface last night. I saw the 5h map and it certainly looked interesting me. 

Just use Weather Underground's WunderMap. It shows Euro precip and temps. And FWIW, there's not a drop over NC. The Euro simply does not have an SLP near us.

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I'm actually happy to see mostly a late development at this point in time, especially when there's quite a bit of variability from the various modeling. That means that there is still a decent chance for a storm with a favorable track. As always, the odds are not that great. But if you're 5 days out and the consensus is a little late and a little east (along with a few solutions showing inland), that's a lot better than the consensus being strong and west, IMO.

We're most likely not going to lock in on a major snowstorm this early and maintain that look for 4-5 days. So if that's the case, I think we have a fairly good scenario right now...although, it would be nice to see the Euro start to drop some hints of a favorable trend.

Given that this is going to be mostly reliant on the northern stream and the messy flow up there, you've got to think that until the key energy is better sampled, we'll see a lot of variability -- probably at least for the next couple of days.

Overall, I feel pretty good for at least some snow for NC. Right now, I'd give it a 4 in 10 chance we see something.

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I've seen these types of setups before, and I would think more so the 12z runs tomorrow would be more of an indicator, being about 72 hours out. Even then you could see variability.

 

 

Lots of players on the cards right now.  The variability in the guidance, however, one thing's relatively consistent is the very cold 850mb temperatures. Brief Winter Precip concerns are mentioned on KCHS's morning discussion this morning. One of the things that's completely different than last month (and all winter) is that the moisture faucet has been released across the region. I've picked up already since this series of systems has started over 3" of rain, and couple that with the 3.13" I picked up with the last system. The pattern itself is at least more favorable to produce, and I wouldn't be surprised in the least, as most events in the Southeast (Carolinas, GA) are generally poorly modeled, unlike the Feb 2010 event (except the GFS which took eons and finally caught on 48 hours from the event). Lots of players and I believe an RAOB sampling and data ingest is on the table. I think the players are on the table, just getting the guidance to key on the right players for the next couple of days means everything, but the pattern in my opinions favors something to occur in a much more active regime.

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SHARPENING THEUPPER AND TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTON SATURDAY...WHICH PUSHES AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH LATER SATURDAY.THERE IS ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT TO WARRANT ATLEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...MAINLY AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OFTHE AREA. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60SAHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...BUT SUSPECT TEMPS WILL FALL DURINGTHE AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT. STARTINGTO GET A LITTLE CONCERNED FOR SOME BRIEF WINTRY PRECIP WITH THISFRONT AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DROP 850MB TEMPS TO -2 TO -4C BY 00ZSUNDAY...BUT BOUNDARY LATER TEMPS MAY BE TOO WARM. STILL VERYUNCERTAIN...AND WILL CONTINUE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS FOR THISPERIOD.
 
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I'm actually happy to see mostly a late development at this point in time, especially when there's quite a bit of variability from the various modeling. That means that there is still a decent chance for a storm with a favorable track. As always, the odds are not that great. But if you're 5 days out and the consensus is a little late and a little east (along with a few solutions showing inland), that's a lot better than the consensus being strong and west, IMO.

We're most likely not going to lock in on a major snowstorm this early and maintain that look for 4-5 days. So if that's the case, I think we have a fairly good scenario right now...although, it would be nice to see the Euro start to drop some hints of a favorable trend.

Given that this is going to be mostly reliant on the northern stream and the messy flow up there, you've got to think that until the key energy is better sampled, we'll see a lot of variability -- probably at least for the next couple of days.

Overall, I feel pretty good for at least some snow for NC. Right now, I'd give it a 4 in 10 chance we see something.

 

I'm actually happy to see mostly a late development at this point in time, especially when there's quite a bit of variability from the various modeling. That means that there is still a decent chance for a storm with a favorable track. As always, the odds are not that great. But if you're 5 days out and the consensus is a little late and a little east (along with a few solutions showing inland), that's a lot better than the consensus being strong and west, IMO.

We're most likely not going to lock in on a major snowstorm this early and maintain that look for 4-5 days. So if that's the case, I think we have a fairly good scenario right now...although, it would be nice to see the Euro start to drop some hints of a favorable trend.

Given that this is going to be mostly reliant on the northern stream and the messy flow up there, you've got to think that until the key energy is better sampled, we'll see a lot of variability -- probably at least for the next couple of days.

Overall, I feel pretty good for at least some snow for NC. Right now, I'd give it a 4 in 10 chance we see something.

 

It would make me feel infinitely better if the Euro would show a little of that variability.  It's been remarkably consistent (since showing it's "bomb") in showing a non event (and a late bloomer off the Atlantic coast).  I need to see it "blink" before getting excited for anyone, though like I have said all week....... if I were in the central Carolinas and points north and east I would keep my eye on it.  There definitely are players on the field here.

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our V-day storm's attending cold front will create a baroclinic zone off the GA/SC coast later this week, which will be primed for LP development with the aide of the vigorous mid level energy coming down the pike. Overall, it's a pretty good set-up for a SE/Mid-Atlantic coastal storm (IMO).

 

That's just how I see this pattern evolving, but I could be wrong.

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TODAY:000NOUS42 KNHC 101734REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1230 PM EST SUN 10 FEBRUARY 2013SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)         VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013         WSPOD NUMBER.....12-072I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS    1. FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 49--       A. P10/ DROP 6 (45.0N 159.0W)/ 12/0000Z       B NOAA9 08WSC TRACK10       C. 11/1900Z       D. 13 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED       E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 12/0600Z    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE       A. P23/ DROP 8 (47.0N 175.0W)/ 13/0000Z$$JWP

 

DAY 2

 

 

000NOUS42 KNHC 111611REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1110 AM EST MON 11 FEBRUARY 2013SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)         VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013         WSPOD NUMBER.....12-073I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS    1. FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 49--       A. P23/ DROP 8 (47.0N 175.0W)/ 13/0000Z       B  NOAA9 09WSC TRACK23       C. 12/1900Z       D. 18 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED       E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 13/0600Z    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE       A. P9/ DROP 7 / 14/0000Z    3. REMARKS: TRACK P10 WILL BE FLOWN TODAY AS       DETAILED ON WSPOD 12-072.$$JWP
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Would we want to see that southern vort over west Texas out ahead of the northern vort diving down through Nebraska...if we were going to choose, of course?

 

The race would be on but I think what the NAM shows would have a better chance to phase and really energize. A Met would probably better be able to answer this. 

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6z GFS looked great for TN. No wonder all the NC posters got quiet.

I wouldn't take the 84 hours NAM right now. However, the GFS is getting into its good range soon so it'll show more consistency.

 

Huh?  The 6z GFS gave Tennessee absolutely nothing.

 

NC was the only state with a meaningful event of maybe a trace-2" across much of it.

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Huh?  The 6z GFS gave Tennessee absolutely nothing.

 

NC was the only state with a meaningful event of maybe a trace-2" across much of it.

 

Strange, it was showing it on my ipad, but apparently it didn't refresh. Or it wasn't showing the right day and I wasn't aware of it.

 

I stand corrected!

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well lets hope this storm comes together.  the cold air won't be a question this weekend if we can just get that to dig a little further south and phase with the energy out of the north this would be a good storm for the weekend for nc, upstate sc, n. ga  n. al. maybe e.tenn. :sled:

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To me, it looks a bit further south but less "diggy".  I think this would likely lead to a Euro solution.  Or, am I missing something that would allow the 2 pieces of energy to phase earlier and closer in?  Just my uneducated thoughts and pulling for a GFS/Crazy uncle compromise.

TW

Bump.  Can someone with more more education than me comment on my analysis?

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It would make sense it is a bit testy in here with this being the last chance for most to salvage something (which of course slipped away a bit once a thread was created). Anyway the 12z GFS is rolling and we shall see how this one handles the pattern, and the trough axis in the MS Valley.

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Unusual and surprising to see this from the NWS in Peachtree City(KFFC).

They must be buying into a wetter solution for Fri-Sat period.

They have a 30% chance of rain in Macon on Saturday with a high of 50.

 

They're so conservative that when they post "30% chance" of anything 96 hours away they are sure of the event and must have heard from God.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE FINALLY PULLS THE REMAINING PRECIP OUT OFTHE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY ANDTHURSDAY NIGHT. FOR FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF CANADAAND INTO THE MIDWEST DEEPENING THE H5 TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA ANDTHE GREAT LAKES. IN RESPONSE AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THECWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATEDWITH THIS FRONT WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW LEVELTHICKNESS PROGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAFRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPS WILL KEEP MOST OFTHE PRECIP IN THE LIQUID FORM OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THEEXTREME NORTH WHERE THERE WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE PRECIP SHOULDBE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z SUN. A STRONG NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW IN THEMOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT COULD HOLD MOISTURE AND LIGHT SNOW IN FOR ALITTLE LONGER AND WILL KEEP A 20/30 POP GOING FOR THE NORTHEASTMOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE COMING MOREIN LINE WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS...BUT THEY STILL APPEAR TOO WARM ANDWILL NEED TO DROP THEM A FEW DEGREES.MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THISWILL HOLD THROUGH MONDAY.
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