beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Oh hell, at 21 hours it's got so many vortexes flying around there is no way to know if this is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Oh hell, at 21 hours it's got so many vortexes flying around there is now way to know if this is right. Yea look at that northern piece on the back side...what is that gonna do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 @24 much wetter than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 @24 precip over most of NC and Easter NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Oh hell, at 21 hours it's got so many vortexes flying around there is no way to know if this is right. Kind of starting to look like the same setup 12z produced at 27 hrs comparing it to the 18z 21 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Better run for Eastern NC, but this isn't doing the CLT corridor any good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Gsp discussion is out. Can't paste from phone. No watches or advisories issued. TONIGHT...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONCERN THE DURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIP SHOULD END ACROSS THE TN LINE BY MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK FLOW...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO DROP POPS TO CHC TO SCHC...BEFORE INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE TN BORDER PRECIP DECREASES...CAA SHOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LOW SLR SHOULD SUPPORT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM SUB FREEZING ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID 30S EAST. SATURDAY...FORECAST IS BECOMING QUITE INTERESTING WITH LATEST RUNS OF THE GUIDANCE. NO MATTER WHAT THE GUIDANCE HOLDS...WE WILL HAVE WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MTNS. LATEST SOIL OBS ACROSS SC PIEDMONT RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HOWEVER...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL REMAIN MUCH COOLER THAN THE SOIL. THAT BEING SAID...THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILTED H5 TROF WILL PIVOT OVER THE REGION ON SAT. GFS QG H5 UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES PEAK OVER 40 MB/HR ACROSS THE FA AT 18Z...WITH VALUES OVER 30 MB/HR ARRIVING FROM NRN GA AFTER 12Z. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THE MORNING INDICATE THAT NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM 3 FKT TO NEAR 20 KFT...WITH A DEEP LAYER WITHIN THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH RANGE. CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NC COAST ON SAT...SHOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...850MB TO 500MB SATURATED EPV BECOME NEGATIVE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP MOISTURE...FORCING...COLD PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND SNOW GROWTH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLACE THE PIEDMONT UNDER A STRONG SNOW PRODUCING ENVIRONMENT. THE LIMITS TO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE THE MILD SOIL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING AIR TEMPERATURES. ASSUMING THAT WET BULB WILL BRING AFTERNOON 2M TEMPS TO THE MID 30S...BELOW MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MOS...ACCUMS SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE MTN AREAS ARE NOT LIMITED BY WARM SOIL OR AIR TEMPS...THEREFORE...THE MTN AREAS SHOULD ACCUMULATE SNOW AS LONG AS IT IS FALLING. BASED ON THE LATEST TIMING AND THINKING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH AROUND AN INCH ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR FROM KGMU TO KCLT METRO AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Better run for Eastern NC, but this isn't doing the CLT corridor any good. Nope, and the 18z RPM is looking very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I have a feeling this is going to be an awesome run for eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Come on down! Be glad to have you I have a feeling this is going to be an awesome run for eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avianman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Gsp discussion is out. Can't paste from phone. No watches or advisories issued. Most of the mountains of NC in a Winter Weather Advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Wow GFS and Nam worlds apart with there outlook on the storm QPF wise and how close it puts the low to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 WWAs up for the NC mountains... INCLUDING Asheville... http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NCZ053&warncounty=NCC021&firewxzone=NCZ053&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Better run for Eastern NC, but this isn't doing the CLT corridor any good. The problem is the energy of that vort is too far south. It's giving all the lift to those just east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Most of the mountains of NC in a Winter Weather Advisory. Boy, that's not going to be needed if the latest NAM is right. There's nothing west of CLT -> RDU in NC on the precipitation fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Come on down! Be glad to have you Back on the winter train? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Come on down! Be glad to have you 'fraid you'd have go to inland just a bit...but not too far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 great run for sc up into central/eastern nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nope, and the 18z RPM is looking very similar. Looks to me though like the latest run of the RAP is more negative. Looking at the surface maps for rain it also is putting more rain into AL...that might be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nam still perplexes me with what it does with the phased energy from 30-33 it has the energy on the GA SC border and then instead of swinging it northeast like the GFS it has it go southeast from there. Someone mentioned convective feedback problems earlier I am wondering if that is the problem with the Nam still. That and there is like a million vortexes in the atmosphere as Bean alluded to a little earlier in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 From a forecasting standpoint, I don't know how anyone could have any confidence in a particular accumulation prediction. Those shortwaves end up buzzing around like angry bees. Subtle, 50-mile shifts in their interaction could lead to 100-200 miles shifts in a QPF axis and affect totals by .2-.3. What is becoming clear is there will be some sort of area of .25ish QPF from this system. Where it will end up is anybody's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GSP snow map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Hi-Res simulated radar is actually not that bad for Gastonia and points east. It actually gives Monroe .75 of liquid lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Simulated radar is inching closer to .75 around CLT @27..... .50 close to Gastonia and Shelby as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scsnowgirl Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Burger... How about the upstate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Boy, that's not going to be needed if the latest NAM is right. There's nothing west of CLT -> RDU in NC on the precipitation fields. Don't worry about the NAM. It hasn't had a good QPF forecast since December. Last Friday it suggested we would get 1.2" of rain that night, while the GFS had us less than .4". Actual amount was .38". And we all know how the NAM was way off with the upper level low system back in January (while the GFS essentially nailed it). Until the NAM can prove it can be accurate again within 24 hours, I'm not putting much stock in it. Notice GSP's discussion didn't talk about the NAM at all. And for good reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 None for central SC? GSP snow map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Simulated radar is inching closer to .75 around CLT @27..... .50 close to Gastonia and Shelby as well. What's the snow ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Burger... How about the upstate? Not too good. interestingly enough hi-res makes Monroe the big winner on QPF totals. has over an inch there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Simulated radar is inching closer to .75 around CLT @27..... .50 close to Gastonia and Shelby as well. Wow. That's incredible. Probably overdone, but trend for wetter seems to be hanging on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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