packfan98 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 the GGEM is very similar. Well that is a plus. I wonder what the GFS and Canadian models are seeing that some of the higher resolution models are missing? ....or is it the other way around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 If my math is right, there is a widespread ~.50 qpf totals over central NC per the GGEM. Glancing at it I think that is an accurate guess. We will be able to tell for sure shortly when they come out on my site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Well that is a plus. I wonder what the GFS and Canadian models are seeing that some of the higher resolution models are missing? ....or is it the other way around? Our in-house high resolution models at my company were much wetter than the NAM even one wetter than the GFS. Probably overdone, but I trust ours more than the NAM. That was 6z though, 12z is running. One of ours was showing similar outputs yesterday well before the others started catching on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Well that is a plus. I wonder what the GFS and Canadian models are seeing that some of the higher resolution models are missing? ....or is it the other way around? It's just the timing of the phase I'll bet. Again we probably won't know until it actually happens overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Well, I'm up to .03 now. A big trend from the 0 at 18z Get a little more and I could get past the virga stage! I guess the sky's are tired from the 4.7 from earlier in the week T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Our in-house high resolution models at my company were much wetter than the NAM even one wetter than the GFS. Probably overdone, but I trust ours more than the NAM. That was 6z though, 12z is running. One of ours was showing similar outputs yesterday well before the others started catching on. Be prepared for generic IMBY requests every 3 hours. It will be fun seeing what the RPM starts spitting out this afternoon across different news channels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 As previously stated...12z RGEM looks very similar to 12z GFS. Precip images attached. The precip in each image is 3hr QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Be prepared for generic IMBY requests every 3 hours. It will be fun seeing what the RPM starts spitting out this afternoon across different news channels. WRAL's is the worst for this. Their in house model is fine I'm sure but the graphics they show on TV are horrid. They loop it way too quickly so they show essentially 3" of accumulation in about 0.2 seconds and then put up their generic T-1" throughout the viewing area and adjust throughout nowcast time for these events. I know TV mets are supposed to be conservative but at least when Fishel is on he'll show some more interesting (albeit nerdy) graphics. I prefer other news stations when discussing snow. Matt's graphics are awesome, as well as Brad P's. Also, one more thing. The new female met (excuse me for forgetting her name) loves the nerdy stuff too and throws up some interesting graphics and disco when she's on...she also does that on their social media sites. I like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 So in the short time frame we are in. I would assume the euro should be watched but model focus would be shifting to the RAP and HRR and other now casting data. Just not sure what stock overall the 12 run of the euro today will guide us going into the overnight period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'm not letting wilkes screw this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z RGEM 48 hour total QPF. Carolina special.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It's just the timing of the phase I'll bet. Again we probably won't know until it actually happens overnight. Our in-house high resolution models at my company were much wetter than the NAM even one wetter than the GFS. Probably overdone, but I trust ours more than the NAM. That was 6z though, 12z is running. One of ours was showing similar outputs yesterday well before the others started catching on. Thank you for the replies. I believe it will be hard for the NWS to jump on board this afternoon with the significant changes only happening on some of the models and there not being multiple runs with continuity. Looks like they will go with low confident forecasts. Probably a watch for RDU and points north and east at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This run is sparking some energy in the lee side. very nice. As previously stated...12z RGEM looks very similar to 12z GFS. Precip images attached. The precip in each image is 3hr QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 WRAL's is the worst for this. Their in house model is fine I'm sure but the graphics they show on TV are horrid. They loop it way too quickly so they show essentially 3" of accumulation in about 0.2 seconds and then put up their generic T-1" throughout the viewing area and adjust throughout nowcast time for these events. I know TV mets are supposed to be conservative but at least when Fishel is on he'll show some more interesting (albeit nerdy) graphics. I prefer other news stations when discussing snow. Matt's graphics are awesome, as well as Brad P's. They already had the usual trace to one inch up this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Is it time to start the sun angle debate yet? soil temps man soil temps.....but seriously this looks better than anything in the last two years at least if we can get the BL temps cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Dig baby dig! May be worth a little day trip to Charles-Town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 What's going on with that additional heavy QPF on the RGEM over the NC/SC piedmont? 33/36hr frame to be exact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Its in mm so I don't think its out of line with the last run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Its in mm so I don't think its out of line with the last run of the GFS. 7" is a bit more I believe, I don't think the GFS makes it to 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Good website to show the last model runs at a specific location. This is Greensboro. The GFS had .41 inches of liquid and 3.6 inches of snow using an 11:1 ratio. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kgso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Is it time to start the sun angle debate yet? Ground should be nice and warm too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Right now I would go 1-2" for central NC based on the QPF vs mitigating factors if this kind of solution verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 What's going on with that additional heavy QPF on the RGEM over the NC/SC piedmont? 33/36hr frame to be exact It's probably the effects of the lee trough combined with PVA (positive vorticity advection) maxing out at about that time frame as the vort rounding the base of the trough and the trough goes slightly negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee_Sidedryslot:-( Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This run is sparking some energy in the lee side. very nice. Yes Strong, the GFS and RGEM are trending very nicely for our beloved So.Foothills. If they continue this favorable trend we could end up with a nice cover as well as our neighbors to the south and east. I believe temps should be good here for a change and could actually help our ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Will it not be difficult for this to stick to roads since it is in the 60's in Raleigh right now? I know it is possible but isn't it difficult to overcome the ground temp? I know this has been discussed before but I remember Fischel talking about this the last small storm we had, he said it is very hard to do. Do you think the rates will be high enough to stick to the roads? 12z GFS Ensemble mean a little wetter. Northern Wake count in the 0.5 to 0.75 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 MHX forecast for Greenville Sat night looking good, starting to think we might actually see 2-4" here. A chance of snow, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Northwest wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nogaps and Ukie both came in wetter than their 0Z runs for NC. One more model to go this cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Hey Guys, my first forecast map and discussion. http://www.examiner.com/article/snow-possible-across-southeast-this-weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Euro is just meh unless you're in ENC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The new Euro is wetter than the 00z run, although not as wet as the GFS/GGEM. The 0.25 to 0.5 area is across SE Va, eastern NC (Monroe to FAY to RDU to ORF east and south of there), also over upstate SC, most of the rest of Va/NC/SC in the 0.1 to 0.25 range. Eastern Ga in the 0.05 to 0.1 as well as the rain shadow area of the NC northern foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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