packfan98 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z GFS ensemble mean looks slightly wetter for that lee side trough development in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GSP gets dumped and Oconee Nada..page for the course. I'm inclined to call myself part of NE Ga now....screw zone! lol sad isnt it? this set up screws us big time! the mtns eats 1/2 the moisture and then the downsloaping eats the other 1/2 oh well - we can always hope. got my fingers crossed but am not really overly hopeful at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 gfs ensemble looks about the same for sc/nc as the op run. i do think (as robert alluded to) that some locations could see some sig accumulation in upper sc or central/eastern nc if a nice band of precip sets up shop over them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z GFS ensemble mean looks slightly wetter for that lee side trough development in NC. Individual members will be fun on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GEFS mean spreads the wealth further west than the op. I love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 lol sad isnt it? this set up screws us big time! the mtns eats 1/2 the moisture and then the downsloaping eats the other 1/2 oh well - we can always hope. got my fingers crossed but am not really overly hopeful at the moment. Here in West GA we don't really have any big mountains to the west or north to eat the moisture and no downsloping, so I'm not sure why we get screwed. Too far west maybe ? We got screwed last month when the moisture just fizzled as it hit the GA border and it looks like we're about to get screwed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Here in West GA we don't really have any big mountains to the west or north to eat the moisture and no downsloping, so I'm not sure why we get screwed. Too far west maybe ? We got screwed last month when the moisture just fizzled as it hit the GA border and it looks like we're about to get screwed again. Waaaaay too far west. The moisture from this system is supposed to come from the Atlantic Ocean as the Low pressure spins and pushes it back over land. It's not coming from the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 WLTX says wet snow flakes/flurries possible later Saturday, no accumulation expected (says Amy Aaronson). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Here in West GA we don't really have any big mountains to the west or north to eat the moisture and no downsloping, so I'm not sure why we get screwed. Too far west maybe ? We got screwed last month when the moisture just fizzled as it hit the GA border and it looks like we're about to get screwed again. Your'e not getting "screwed". It is meteorology 101. Consider a huge bonus if somehow you did get a little something. Most of N GA wil be way too dry to get anything more than, perhaps, flurries/showers. The winds around the developing Atlantic low are from the N to NW, which are too dry to bring in much moisture. 130+ years of climo says these types of storms almost never give the bulk of N GA outside the mtns much at all...perhaps some of NE GA could get real lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Individual members will be fun on this run. Not impressive at all...nothing like the op Dry kinda like the NAM, this run definitely an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Your'e not getting "screwed". It is meteorology 101. Consider a huge bonus if somehow you did get a little something. Most of N GA wil be way too dry to get anything more than, perhaps, flurries/showers. The winds around the developing Atlantic low are from the N to NW, which are too dry to bring in much moisture. Climo says these types of storms almost never give the bulk of N GA outside the mtns much at all...perhaps some of NE GA could get real lucky. But even extreme south GA and FL are forecast to get a rain/snow mix ! Yes, Florida could end up getting more snow this winter than Atlanta ! If that's not getting screwed I don't know what is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 That makes me feel better about this. Lol WLTX says wet snow flakes/flurries possible later Saturday, no accumulation expected (says Amy Aaronson). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Not impressive at all...nothing like the op Dry kinda like the NAM, this run definitely an outlier. Where did you see them? They are not out yet on Allan's site or ewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Not impressive at all...nothing like the op Dry kinda like the NAM, this run definitely an outlier. How in the world is the mean wetter if the members are dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GGEM looks almost identical to the GFS (at first glance)...FWIW. It has a 1001 mb LP over Diamond Shoals(just off HAT) at 0Z tomorrow night with good qpf totals over most of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z GFS Ensemble mean a little wetter. Northern Wake count in the 0.5 to 0.75 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Where did you see them? They are not out yet on Allan's site or ewall. I think he is mistaken and looking at yesterdays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I think he is mistaken and looking at yesterdays. Agreed :-))) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z GFS Ensemble mean a little wetter. Northern Wake count in the 0.5 to 0.75 range. Wow, that would be incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I think he is mistaken and looking at yesterdays. Yeah, sorry my bad guys! I saw the current OP with the old members and didn't think anything of it, I'm in class and didn't realize the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z GFS Ensemble mean a little wetter. Northern Wake count in the 0.5 to 0.75 range. Half inch dot right over soda city! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yeah, sorry my bad guys! I saw the current OP with the old members and didn't think anything of it, I'm in class and didn't realize the time Ha, I hope this doesn't happen when you're dishing out pills to some old man in about 3 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 If my math is right, there is a widespread ~.50 qpf totals over central NC per the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Is it time to start the sun angle debate yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 But even extreme south GA and FL are forecast to get a rain/snow mix ! Yes, Florida could end up getting more snow this winter than Atlanta ! If that's not getting screwed I don't know what is. I'll pay a dollar to the weather gods per every flurry I see this wknd. Don't think I'll need to go to the bank, but would be happy to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Here in West GA we don't really have any big mountains to the west or north to eat the moisture and no downsloping, so I'm not sure why we get screwed. Too far west maybe ? We got screwed last month when the moisture just fizzled as it hit the GA border and it looks like we're about to get screwed again. With this system the lee trough from the mtns is helping the QPF in the carolinas, not hurting. Our issue in NGA is that the trough is not digging far enough west to get the moisture to ramp up quick enough for us. What we need is for the trough to end up further west and we would have a shot but it's likely a little too late for that for us in NGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 But none of the other models are close to what the GFS has. What in the world do you go with if you are a forecaster? For my back yard I would go with a dusting to 1/2 and see if the models can agree on something. Lets see if the EURO can get amped up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Ha, I hope this doesn't happen when you're dishing out pills to some old man in about 3 years! "Your prescription will be ready in 15 minutes. I know it's slow, but the 12z Euro is rolling" Anyway back on topic so this doesn't get moved. Obvious trend is obvious with more moisture west. I just hope the NAM catches on or some other short range models. The fact that it's all GFS (and a little bit of the other globals) is a little unsettling but to say I'm not excited would be a lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Is it time to start the sun angle debate yet? lol that was the first thing that came to mind this morning when I noticed it getting light at 630. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 But none of the other models are close to what the GFS has. What in the world do you go with if you are a forecaster? For my back yard I would go with a dusting to 1/2 and see if the models can agree on something. Lets see if the EURO can get amped up a bit. the GGEM is very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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