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WidreMann told us it was gonna snow thread

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

So is there any way that this could turn into a very big storm for the SE? Sure, the low could form closer to the coast and throw more moisture back, like the GFS is showing. But is there any physically realistic way this could explosively develop, however unlikely that might be?

 

I think it would take those pieces of energy to be stronger and once the phase happens if the negative tilt could go a little quicker we would have a big storm on our hands. Looking at the RAP it does keep the energy stronger than the NAM or GFS but where it goes, when it phases and how it turns is anyone's guess until tonight. 

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Poimen

Poimen

Posted
Posted

So is there any way that this could turn into a very big storm for the SE? Sure, the low could form closer to the coast and throw more moisture back, like the GFS is showing. But is there any physically realistic way this could explosively develop, however unlikely that might be?

 

I suspect we need the H5 to close off for a time over GA/SC for that to occur.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

So is there any way that this could turn into a very big storm for the SE? Sure, the low could form closer to the coast and throw more moisture back, like the GFS is showing. But is there any physically realistic way this could explosively develop, however unlikely that might be?

I don't see it. Lack of a robust southern wave and a phase too late for most. I could see this turning into a 3-6 for some. Maybe you.

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
Posted

The Greer office is in a tough situation right now... just going by the QPF on the 12z GFS, they could be going from issuing HWO's in the morning package to Winter Storm Warnings in the afternoon package given that the event will be within 24 hours.

 

I would think they will play it conservative and live the prospects of playing catch-up ball rather than the risk of shooting high and missing.

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Pilotwx

Pilotwx

Posted
Posted

I think it would take those pieces of energy to be stronger and once the phase happens if the negative tilt could go a little quicker we would have a big storm on our hands. Looking at the RAP it does keep the energy stronger than the NAM or GFS but where it goes, when it phases and how it turns is anyone's guess until tonight. 

Really close for you guys, Maybe after the 18z NAM you can say "Boom goes the Dynamite"!!

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Pilotwx

Pilotwx

Posted
Posted

If you want a bigger storm then you want to see the piece of energy in Ok/ARK farther west back into western OK. If that could happen and drop into the energy in southern Texas this baby would explode.

 

 

 

 

 

ruc_namer_018_500_vort_ht.gif

Looking @ the WV the energy may be west of of models right now, it might be in central OK  instead of eastern OK.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Thanks guys. I don't see anything either that leads me to believe we'd see anything like a Jan. 2000 here....although that was definitely on RAH's mind, as evidenced by their discussion last night. The overall setup is different. But a little stronger vort, a little sharper trough, and a little more consolidation of energy and sooner neg tilt, and it could become a bigger deal. Although I guess it's just as likely to go the other way too.

In any case, I've always liked suppressed systems better than more west ones. The suppressed ones seem easier to come back.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

WxSouth just posted this on facebook.

 

GFS model shows a "lee trough" signature in the Carolinas. Usually this only happens with strong Gulf storms once they get to the GA or SC coast, but the GFS has shown this feature a few runs now and strengthened it. So the trends continue to look better and better for snow to fall in much of the Carolinas and Southern/SE VA tomorrow and tomorrow night.
If a lee trough develops that could be a sur...prise bonus for someone, in terms of snow rates...usually extra lift is focused in a narrow zone along the lee trough. This will come down to watching radar loops tomorrow and the Water Vapor and short term models tonight and Saturday, as this is an ultra-close call between still being mostly offshore, versus being a bigger event onshore.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted

i cant just buy the gfs, its been wishy washy with the past couple events. it was terra-bad with the SNE blizzard. and given how complex this setup is, i dont know if you can trust one guidance...its going to take blends of guidance and alot of now casting.

 

first we have the cold front and how far SE it pushes. then the setup of the trough followed by the shortwaves that dive down into the base and how far back/west can we get it to dig. also, can we get the west coast ridge to hold up as a disturbance crashes into it...any little tick or tug one way or another will have huge impacts.

 

if anything, at least we have something to track..for whatever that is worth.

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I85Greenville

I85Greenville

Posted
Posted

Apologies if this has already been posted. 11am update from GSP: 

 

 

 

SATURDAY...FORECAST IS BECOMING QUITE INTERESTING WITH LATEST RUNS OF THE GUIDANCE. NO MATTER WHAT THE GUIDANCE HOLDS...WE WILL HAVE WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MTNS. LATEST SOIL OBS ACROSS SC PIEDMONT RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HOWEVER...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL REMAIN MUCH COOLER THAN THE SOIL. THAT BEING SAID...THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILTED H5 TROF WILL PIVOT OVER THE REGION ON SAT. GFS QG H5 UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES PEAK OVER 40 MB/HR ACROSS THE FA AT 18Z. IN ADDITION...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE NC COAST ON SAT...RESULTING IN A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. I WILL UPDATE THE POP TO INCREASE VALUES TO LIKELY ACROSS THE CLT METRO AND CHC ELSEWHERE. H85 TEMPS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT MORNING TEMPS MAY REACH L40S BEFORE PRECIP BLOSSOMS MID DAY...THEN VALUES SHOULD FALL OR WET BULB DOWN INTO THE MID 30S. BASED ON THE LATEST TEMPERATURE THINKING...ACCUM SN MAY BEGIN AROUND MID DAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORM TOTAL SNOW MAY RANGE FROM A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES...TO LIGHT ACCUMS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...LESS THAN AN INCH.
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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

WxSouth just posted this on facebook.

 

 

Pretty much what I said. These troughs hanging back can really do some magic under the right conditions. The thing is it is usually further westl

 

But i swear if the gfs is right I think I might break something or worse. Unreal how much  snow falls just across the river and I don't get anything. 24/30 hours out there is not much hope for to a change unless there is a big bust..well by 30 to 50 miles....god that seems so possible...but run after run showing this is really discouraging.

 

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ncwinterwxman

ncwinterwxman

Posted
Posted

Taking a look at the current WV loop, you can clearly see the vort max is already beginning to enter northern central portions of NE, the position where the 12Z GFS had it at 7 pm tonight.  Looks to me that the vort max MAY be moving faster than progged...not sure though...anyone else seeing this as well?

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

 

Edit:  Waiting on visible to confirm this as WV can create a "mirage" type of effect sometimes.

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted

Sorry to focus on my backyard but this is frustrating as hell to see. (although I do focus on NE/north ga too so I guess that's my "out" lol.) I'd love to see more than an inch but good grief all I'm asking for is a freaking inch. If I see greenwood get several inches and I don't anything but flurries or less even I'll nut up. Sad thing is it's possible. Sigh :( :( :(

 

ne ga (at least a good chunk) and parts of the upstate dont do too well either when the moisture has to first come over the mtns and second survive downsloaping. that hole in the qpf maps is disturbing lol. hopefully the moisture will  be more robust than what is being shown at this point

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Poimen

Poimen

Posted
Posted

Taking a look at the current WV loop, you can clearly see the vort max is already beginning to enter northern central portions of NE, the position where the 12Z GFS had it at 7 pm tonight.  Looks to me that the vort max MAY be moving faster than progged...not sure though...anyone else seeing this as well?

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

 

Check the lighter colors over the Dakotas, I think that is the vort max, which is where it should be at this time per the GFS.

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