Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Wow!! C'mon now keep trending that 5h map at 33 is awesome keeps trending closer and closer to the NC coast with that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Can't the GFS be right JUST ONCE?!?!? Literally if this was a hair west we would be money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 More than .5 QPF for GSP, Gaffney, Kings Mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 AccuWx point and click has us down for .3 SN here in the Triad for tomorrow. Rain on the front end. If we can get that all SN then I can see a 1-2" SN for the Triad. Trends seem to be in our favor. But the nowcasting is about to begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I know yall hate this and its a MBY weenie post but how are the sandhills looking aroind SOP to FAY? My phone wont load any models at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The 12z GFS is a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'm liking the better moisture but the closer to the coast that low gets the more I worry about my temp here east of I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Now that was a step in the right direction. So close to blowing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looks like the onset will be tomorrow afternoon, almost nowcast time. how does the rap compare the the gfs burger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 i don't know Burger. Maybe this is a BABY BOOM!! The bufkit data should be fun for areas. Let's see what kind of ratios they spit out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Hmmm, I could handle that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 If I get 5" as that map suggests (which is probably overdone) I'd be right at 7" for the year, which is about average for these parts I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Who lives under the sweet spot in SC? I'd like to show up around 10am and I'll bring the coffee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 So GFS says West trend has not stopped yet, keeps inching totals up here IMBY, at least .25 QPF this run with great ratios. Starting to look good even for the foothills now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Gotta love these "surprise" events...looks like a nice 2-4" event for many if this map is correct...could conceivably see this happen and if it all falls at night, could see even more if the ratios are better than 10:1 for a few hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Of course I am moving my girlfriend back home from Winston Salem tomorrow. Hopefully we can get it all wrapped up in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 More than .5 QPF for GSP, Gaffney, Kings Mountain. Yeah that looks great. I am about 20 miles South of Gaffney and hopefully this run will be right since this would be so nice. I'd take 4-5 inches of snow and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 If I get 5" as that map suggests (which is probably overdone) I'd be right at 7" for the year, which is about average for these parts I believe. I think we're in a great spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustagaweather Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Good write up by GSP: HOWEVER...THE MODELS (ESP THE GFS) ARE TRENDING TOWARD AN EARLIER/MORE INLAND NEGATIVE TILT PHASE...WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING CLOSERTO THE COAST AND PRECIP DEVELOPMENT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL GEORGIATHROUGH MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT...THE GFS SQUEEZES OUT .1 TO.25 INCH OF QPF ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. ALTHOUGH THE NAM ISDRIER...EVEN IT FORECASTS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THEEASTERN ZONES. THIS IS A /BIG DEAL/ BECAUSE PARTIAL THICKNESS PROGSSUPPORT SNOW AS THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OFTHE AREA. EXAMINATION OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE GEFS) DOESSUGGEST THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT OF A INLAND/WET OUTLIER.HOWEVER...THE TRENDS IN GUIDANCE ARE A BIT ALARMING...AND IT IS NOTAT ALL UNCOMMON FOR THE MODELS TO POORLY HANDLE THE TIMING OF THETRANSITION OF A SHORT WAVE TO A NEGATIVE TILT PHASE. WE WILL BEGINSLOWLY RAMPING UP POPS FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THESOUTHEAST ZONES. WE WILL GENERALLY MENTION A RA/SN MIX...BUT ONCEWET BULB CONSIDERATIONS ARE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT...THE PREDOMINANTP-TYPE SHOULD INDEED BE SNOW. WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING 30-40POPS FOR ABOUT A HALF INCH OF SNOW...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THISFORECAST TO BUST ON THE WET SIDE...AND THE FACT THAT IT/S BEEN ACOUPLE OF YEARS SINCE THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT SAW MEASURABLE SNOW...WEWILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A BRIEF MENTION IN THE HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Starting that early? Im hoping for the afternoon so i can sit by the fire pit with a cooler of beer. Who lives under the sweet spot in SC? I'd like to show up around 10am and I'll bring the coffee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 More than .5 QPF for GSP, Gaffney, Kings Mountain. Gotta love that nice little gap right over Mecklenburg county. Good thing I kind of live on the southwest side I suppose hehe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I just don't buy in to this event. If we don't have cyclogenesis to our west and south it's generally not a big deal if anything. Storm forming in the Atlantic is a recipe for disappointment IMO. This winter has been bad, we're trying to squeeze blood from every turnip that comes by. Now for eastern NC, that's a different story. Raleigh even seems to get on that fun too if the storm goes boom off the coast. I'll take some token flakes though, if I can get them in CLT. Haven't seen them in a looooong time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GSP write up above is from very early this morning around 0245. Next one this afternoon will be interesting. One has to wonder about Winter Weather Advisories as a possibility, 12z GFS is in advisory range-or better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Runs and hides. I attend college in Spartanburg. If this verifies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I just don't buy in to this event. If we don't have cyclogenesis to our west and south it's generally not a big deal if anything. Storm forming in the Atlantic is a recipe for disappointment IMO. This winter has been bad, we're trying to squeeze blood from every turnip that comes by. Now for eastern NC, that's a different story. Raleigh even seems to get on that fun too if the storm goes boom off the coast. I'll take some token flakes though, if I can get them in CLT. Haven't seen them in a looooong time. Yeah this could end up like an event back in late 2000 where the Charlotte area was forecast to get buried but didnt get much at all, while areas east of I-95 in NC got lots of snow. Hopefully this one will be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I just don't buy in to this event. If we don't have cyclogenesis to our west and south it's generally not a big deal if anything. Storm forming in the Atlantic is a recipe for disappointment IMO. This winter has been bad, we're trying to squeeze blood from every turnip that comes by. Now for eastern NC, that's a different story. Raleigh even seems to get on that fun too if the storm goes boom off the coast. I'll take some token flakes though, if I can get them in CLT. Haven't seen them in a looooong time. yep much rather have a GOM low moving slowly across the gulf coast with cold air in place. we all make out like bandits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 So is there any way that this could turn into a very big storm for the SE? Sure, the low could form closer to the coast and throw more moisture back, like the GFS is showing. But is there any physically realistic way this could explosively develop, however unlikely that might be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GSP write up above is from very early this morning around 0245. Next one this afternoon will be interesting. One has to wonder about Winter Weather Advisories as a possibility, 12z GFS is in advisory range-or better! Just MHO it will probably take more than just this run to get GSP honking. I would think if the ENS comes in just as wet it's a good sign...but we're also playing against the NAM and RGEM..RAP looks close to GFS but it's only out to hour 9. This is gonna be a total wait and see event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On the other end of the spectrum, ILM gets the shaft here... Low is too close to the coast for us. I'm so conflicted! Wish lower totals on others so ILM can get more? or sacrifice our potential snow so everyone can get in on the action? hopefully we get both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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