burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Here is another 1 of my dumb ideas as why the 12z nam might not be showing as much precip. If there would happen to be convection along the gulf coast then we might be getting a feedback problem. Personally I don't buy what it was doing with that southern energy......but we shall see. GFS will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 THE 00Z NAM OFFERS A REASONABLE DEPICTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. ITS SOLUTION FOR THE TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IN THE ATLANTIC... HOWEVER DIFFERS FROM ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AND TRENDS. THE NAM IS FARTHER EAST AND FAST WITH THE FIRST LOW...AND IS THE EASTERN-MOST MODEL WITH THE DEEPER LOW...LIFTING IT TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN CLUSTERING AROUND THE GEFS MEAN...AND THE MEAN HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AS WELL. THE 00Z GFS FELL FARTHER WEST AND IS MORE INTENSE EARLY IN THE EVOLUTION THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS WITHIN REASON...BUT IS CONSIDERED A LOWER PROBABILITY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. IN RECENT STORMS OCCASIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE PRODUCED ACCELERATED STRENGTHENING THAT RESULTS IN THE TRACK BEING TOO FAR WEST AND TOO STRONG EARLY DURING DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AND TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE 12Z AND 18Z GFS RUNS ARE BETTER OPTIONS FOR THIS STORM. THE 00Z UKMET AND CANADIAN BOTH LEND SUPPORT TO THIS IDEA. FINALLY...THE 00Z ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE PREFERRED GFS CAMP OF SOLUTIONS...BUT THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE PHASING PRESSURE FALLS BETWEEN THE ARCTIC AND POLAR FRONTAL ZONES SUCH THAT A CONSOLIDATED LOW FORMS FARTHER NORTH INITIALLY. WE PREFER THE MODELS THAT ARE A BIT SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH EARLY ON...AS PRIMARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE TIED TO A MID LEVEL IMPULSE EMERGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST NEAR THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Personally I don't buy what it was doing with that southern energy......but we shall see. GFS will be telling. This system has never been seen as a big moisture producer. 9 out 10 times along the gulf when you have a low someone gets some big rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'm about 25 miles south of Macon so maybe I am "oh, so close" as well! Let's see if Delta will chime in with his thoughts about the snow prospects for central Georgia. With a sounding like the one I posted for Macon GA, heavier QPF would likely overcome that warm boundary. So for your back yard I think it a matter of radar watching to see if heavier rates form. IF that happens then the likelyhood of snow making it to the ground increases. If QPF just remains very light then not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The fact is that there is a ton of energy and very subtle changes in strength, track, orientation (of which precise interaction may not be known until the thing is unfolding) will make all the difference here. This is such a dynamic and volatile situation, there are a lot of options still on the table. I would lean toward a less significant event, but like RAH pointed out last night, there is gasoline and there is a match, and they are really not all that far apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 NAM says Macon GA is oh so close to snow by 10am tomorrow. Date: 27 hour Eta valid 15Z SAT 16 FEB 13Station: MCNLatitude: 32.70Longitude: -83.65-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1004 118 3.5 2.0 90 1.5 2.8 324 10 276.3 277.1 275.8 288.3 4.40 1 1000 152 3.1 324 10 276.3 2 950 565 -0.4 -0.5 99 0.2 -0.4 338 21 276.8 277.5 275.3 287.4 3.87 3 900 996 -2.0 -2.5 97 0.5 -2.2 335 17 279.4 280.0 276.3 289.2 3.53 4 850 1449 -3.8 -4.3 96 0.6 -4.0 305 15 282.2 282.7 277.3 291.4 3.26 5 800 1926 -6.0 -6.7 94 0.7 -6.2 282 20 284.8 285.3 278.2 293.1 2.89 6 750 2428 -9.2 -10.2 92 1.0 -9.5 268 23 286.6 287.0 278.4 293.5 2.35 7 700 2958 -12.3 -13.6 90 1.3 -12.6 257 25 288.9 289.2 278.9 294.6 1.92 8 650 3522 -15.2 -16.7 88 1.5 -15.6 236 26 291.8 292.1 279.8 296.6 1.59 9 600 4122 -18.8 -20.6 86 1.8 -19.2 225 35 294.4 294.6 280.6 298.2 1.23 10 550 4764 -23.6 -25.7 83 2.1 -23.9 227 47 296.1 296.3 280.8 298.9 0.86 11 500 5453 -28.7 -31.2 79 2.5 -29.0 232 60 298.0 298.1 281.3 299.9 0.56 I think that's snow or at least a mix there. . the 1004mb sounding I throw out since it's so close to the 1000mb sounding.. Given the rate of precip (although it's not much of course), subfreezing 950mb temps(normally that's what I look at for snow, , even if surface temps are above freezing) , cold 850mb temps, etc...I think it's snow/mix Probably won't accumulate and I have reservations given the relatively light precip but I think this run would *at least* produce a mix there, if not all snow toward the end. I have to laugh otherwise I'd cry LOL given the total screwjob here pretty much. Funny this run has the "winners" in central ga and sc and screws a lot of eastern nc where earlier it was good. But honestly I don't trust it....especially over eastern nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 With a sounding like the one I posted for Macon GA, heavier QPF would likely overcome that warm boundary. So for your back yard I think it a matter of radar watching to see if heavier rates form. IF that happens then the likelyhood of snow making it to the ground increases. If QPF just remains very light then not so much. Thanks for sharing your insight. I think it's safe to say that most of us would be excited for "any" type of frozen precip to fall tomorrow. Our part of Georgia is usually on the outside looking in since north Georgia generally gets the better winter storm opportunities. Maybe tomorrow will be one of those rare situations where it's better to be south than north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z RGEM at 24 hours much drier than 0z run at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 For whatever reason the models are struggling with this (now within a day or so of the event). I would say it is a crap shoot at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z RGEM at 24 hours much drier than 0z run at 36. Certainly not good trends today. 6z RGEM wasn't exactly great looking either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I only see the black-and-white RGEM maps out to hr 24 on the Canadian Weather Office's website. Where are you getting it from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Where does HM come up witth the crappy call maps he continually tries to peddle across the SE? I haven't seen a single model run that would verify his 3-6" swath from the Carolina mountains into VA. Maybe I missed one, but he's just ridiculous. Seriously happy to have the amount of met knowledge on this board to cover the SE. Keep it up red taggers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Certainly not good trends today. 6z RGEM wasn't exactly great looking either. Of course we would start to go backwards just 24 or so hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Latest RPM map. Better than nothing I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Thanks for sharing your insight. I think it's safe to say that most of us would be excited for "any" type of frozen precip to fall tomorrow. Our part of Georgia is usually on the outside looking in since north Georgia generally gets the better winter storm opportunities. Maybe tomorrow will be one of those rare situations where it's better to be south than north! I hope you guys do well central and east nc but it wouldn't hurt my feelings if this thing trended north and west just a little maybe a 100 miles if that much would do it for me. my grand daughter lives in wilmington nc, would love for her and my daughter to have snow tomorrow. hope you guys in sc and ga do well also and maybe next time us in the western part of the state can get some snow. I've only had flurries this year and last, very disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I can feel the mojo hand trying to take hold. Somewhat concerned that enough cold air will be here though, the mass seems mighty far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z GFS looks further west @9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Where does HM come up witth the crappy call maps he continually tries to peddle across the SE? I haven't seen a single model run that would verify his 3-6" swath from the Carolina mountains into VA. Maybe I missed one, but he's just ridiculous. Seriously happy to have the amount of met knowledge on this board to cover the SE. Keep it up red taggers! yep I saw the same thing, showing Asheville nc a swath up thru Virginia getting 3-6, GSP says Asheville little on no accum. go figure, someone is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Interesting...@24 GFS is much wetter for central NC. 6z had nothing. 12z around .10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This is not my storm, to far away form any moisture, plus I live in the moisture death shadows of the mountains. central SC to maybe the triad have a shot @ some snow, but eastern NC , SC from about RAH to Sum. SC have a good shot @ a decent snow event. GA is a toss-up but I think some areas in GA might get a little more than inch hard to say with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Look out this might be a fun run. @27 looks a little more negative than 6z. Moisture from south central GA all the way up to the VA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 @30 nice swath of .25 around a large portion of NC from about 77 east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Wow this is a good run. @33 more qpf in NC from CLT east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 yall are gonna love the 12z gfs run, much wetter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I wanna hear a Burger BOOM! Come on man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GFS Sfc maps have all frozen precip for this event. From about GSP up to CLT then up to RDU maybe 2-4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I wanna hear a Burger BOOM! Come on man! Haha never quite goes BOOM! but it's pretty durn close. RDU folks are gonna love this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Can't the GFS be right JUST ONCE?!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Can't the GFS be right JUST ONCE?!?!? For realz....goes against the other models but jeez we need this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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