WidreMann told us it was gonna snow thread

[Jon]

Yea your right instead of being over southern LA it is farther south in the gulf

Should tap the gulf then, wetter run??

[msuwx]

Looks like the precip shield will wind up a little further SE than the 6z..... but predicting models runs isn't my thing. 

[Pilotwx]

The nam being the wettest of the models usually make me wonder the same thing , that a phased system just missed. 

[burgertime]

Well moisture is further south on this run. Also @33 our energy is not as strong in the gulf. 

[ILMRoss]

SLP at hr 33 looks a tad further offshore.

[DopplerWx]

precip shield a little further south and east at 36...still a great run for mid sc to the coast

[Buddy1987]

The Nam wants to put more emphasis on the southern vort this run and keep it stronger. Instead of having it phase with the energy coming out of the Arkansas area it has it much further south. Where it had it in LA it is now in the gulf at 33 with the same latitude as Orlando FL basically.

[rduwx]

A touch east on this run. It looked to me the trough just didn't go negative soon enough. We need it to be neutral to slightly neg before Ga.

[packfan98]

drier and heading out to sea.

[WidreMann]

I think the west trend has stopped. The rest of the 00z models were lackluster. Not as bad as they were yesterday and the day before, but nowhere near what we need. I think we'll get some sprinkles and flurries, and someone in the coastal plain will get a happy inch or two, and that's about it. This winter just isn't a producer.

[burgertime]

Basically anyone north and west of CLT get the shaft on this one...as well as most north and west of ILM. 

[Buddy1987]

The Nam is a little funky tho with what it does in the gulf idk maybe it's just me but that southern vort at 33 was having the same latitude as Orlando now at 36 has it back to the northwest on the FL GA border it's kinda odd but I think the GFS has a better perspective on the situation let's hope it pulls off a miracle on the 12z

[Pilotwx]

Look the earlier runs had date from recon. That's real time info. We just went through a period where no recon data was in the 12z NAM. The 18z run of NAM will probably be different because it will have new recon data . Wait till tonight before cliff diving. 

[DopplerWx]

how does the most recent RAP compare to the 12z nam? small initialization changes may have big implications, and especially if the nam isnt picking up on the s/w strength.

[Brick Tamland]

Man, we were having some great trends and then all of a sudden this run goes backwards.

[MotoWeatherman]

NAM says Macon GA is oh so close to snow by 10am tomorrow.

 

Date: 27 hour Eta valid 15Z SAT 16 FEB 13Station: MCNLatitude:   32.70Longitude: -83.65-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1004   118   3.5   2.0  90  1.5   2.8 324  10 276.3 277.1 275.8 288.3  4.40  1 1000   152   3.1                      324  10 276.3                          2  950   565  -0.4  -0.5  99  0.2  -0.4 338  21 276.8 277.5 275.3 287.4  3.87  3  900   996  -2.0  -2.5  97  0.5  -2.2 335  17 279.4 280.0 276.3 289.2  3.53  4  850  1449  -3.8  -4.3  96  0.6  -4.0 305  15 282.2 282.7 277.3 291.4  3.26  5  800  1926  -6.0  -6.7  94  0.7  -6.2 282  20 284.8 285.3 278.2 293.1  2.89  6  750  2428  -9.2 -10.2  92  1.0  -9.5 268  23 286.6 287.0 278.4 293.5  2.35  7  700  2958 -12.3 -13.6  90  1.3 -12.6 257  25 288.9 289.2 278.9 294.6  1.92  8  650  3522 -15.2 -16.7  88  1.5 -15.6 236  26 291.8 292.1 279.8 296.6  1.59  9  600  4122 -18.8 -20.6  86  1.8 -19.2 225  35 294.4 294.6 280.6 298.2  1.23 10  550  4764 -23.6 -25.7  83  2.1 -23.9 227  47 296.1 296.3 280.8 298.9  0.86 11  500  5453 -28.7 -31.2  79  2.5 -29.0 232  60 298.0 298.1 281.3 299.9  0.56

[burgertime]

how does the most recent RAP compare to the 12z nam?

Here is the RAP @13z compared to the NAM @13z looks like our energy is further SW...

[metalicwx366]

NAM says Macon GA is oh so close to snow by 10am tomorrow.

Date: 27 hour Eta valid 15Z SAT 16 FEB 13
Station: MCN
Latitude:   32.70
Longitude: -83.65
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SFC 1004   118   3.5   2.0  90  1.5   2.8 324  10 276.3 277.1 275.8 288.3  4.40
  1 1000   152   3.1                      324  10 276.3                        
  2  950   565  -0.4  -0.5  99  0.2  -0.4 338  21 276.8 277.5 275.3 287.4  3.87
  3  900   996  -2.0  -2.5  97  0.5  -2.2 335  17 279.4 280.0 276.3 289.2  3.53
  4  850  1449  -3.8  -4.3  96  0.6  -4.0 305  15 282.2 282.7 277.3 291.4  3.26
  5  800  1926  -6.0  -6.7  94  0.7  -6.2 282  20 284.8 285.3 278.2 293.1  2.89
  6  750  2428  -9.2 -10.2  92  1.0  -9.5 268  23 286.6 287.0 278.4 293.5  2.35
  7  700  2958 -12.3 -13.6  90  1.3 -12.6 257  25 288.9 289.2 278.9 294.6  1.92
  8  650  3522 -15.2 -16.7  88  1.5 -15.6 236  26 291.8 292.1 279.8 296.6  1.59
  9  600  4122 -18.8 -20.6  86  1.8 -19.2 225  35 294.4 294.6 280.6 298.2  1.23
 10  550  4764 -23.6 -25.7  83  2.1 -23.9 227  47 296.1 296.3 280.8 298.9  0.86
 11  500  5453 -28.7 -31.2  79  2.5 -29.0 232  60 298.0 298.1 281.3 299.9  0.56

Can you do one for my area? I'm pretty sure it'll show all rain though.

[DopplerWx]

yep burger, the s/w is def more consolidated on the rap, guess we will see which scores the coup.  if gfs comes in wetter then the nam may have been a blip.

[El Kabong]

NAM says Macon GA is oh so close to snow by 10am tomorrow.

 

Date: 27 hour Eta valid 15Z SAT 16 FEB 13Station: MCNLatitude:   32.70Longitude: -83.65-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1004   118   3.5   2.0  90  1.5   2.8 324  10 276.3 277.1 275.8 288.3  4.40  1 1000   152   3.1                      324  10 276.3                          2  950   565  -0.4  -0.5  99  0.2  -0.4 338  21 276.8 277.5 275.3 287.4  3.87  3  900   996  -2.0  -2.5  97  0.5  -2.2 335  17 279.4 280.0 276.3 289.2  3.53  4  850  1449  -3.8  -4.3  96  0.6  -4.0 305  15 282.2 282.7 277.3 291.4  3.26  5  800  1926  -6.0  -6.7  94  0.7  -6.2 282  20 284.8 285.3 278.2 293.1  2.89  6  750  2428  -9.2 -10.2  92  1.0  -9.5 268  23 286.6 287.0 278.4 293.5  2.35  7  700  2958 -12.3 -13.6  90  1.3 -12.6 257  25 288.9 289.2 278.9 294.6  1.92  8  650  3522 -15.2 -16.7  88  1.5 -15.6 236  26 291.8 292.1 279.8 296.6  1.59  9  600  4122 -18.8 -20.6  86  1.8 -19.2 225  35 294.4 294.6 280.6 298.2  1.23 10  550  4764 -23.6 -25.7  83  2.1 -23.9 227  47 296.1 296.3 280.8 298.9  0.86 11  500  5453 -28.7 -31.2  79  2.5 -29.0 232  60 298.0 298.1 281.3 299.9  0.56

I'm about 25 miles south of Macon so maybe I am "oh, so close" as well!  Let's see if Delta will chime in with his thoughts about the snow prospects for central Georgia.

[Hammer]

NAM says Macon GA is oh so close to snow by 10am tomorrow.

 

Date: 27 hour Eta valid 15Z SAT 16 FEB 13Station: MCNLatitude:   32.70Longitude: -83.65-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1004   118   3.5   2.0  90  1.5   2.8 324  10 276.3 277.1 275.8 288.3  4.40  1 1000   152   3.1                      324  10 276.3                          2  950   565  -0.4  -0.5  99  0.2  -0.4 338  21 276.8 277.5 275.3 287.4  3.87  3  900   996  -2.0  -2.5  97  0.5  -2.2 335  17 279.4 280.0 276.3 289.2  3.53  4  850  1449  -3.8  -4.3  96  0.6  -4.0 305  15 282.2 282.7 277.3 291.4  3.26  5  800  1926  -6.0  -6.7  94  0.7  -6.2 282  20 284.8 285.3 278.2 293.1  2.89  6  750  2428  -9.2 -10.2  92  1.0  -9.5 268  23 286.6 287.0 278.4 293.5  2.35  7  700  2958 -12.3 -13.6  90  1.3 -12.6 257  25 288.9 289.2 278.9 294.6  1.92  8  650  3522 -15.2 -16.7  88  1.5 -15.6 236  26 291.8 292.1 279.8 296.6  1.59  9  600  4122 -18.8 -20.6  86  1.8 -19.2 225  35 294.4 294.6 280.6 298.2  1.23 10  550  4764 -23.6 -25.7  83  2.1 -23.9 227  47 296.1 296.3 280.8 298.9  0.86 11  500  5453 -28.7 -31.2  79  2.5 -29.0 232  60 298.0 298.1 281.3 299.9  0.56

If I have to drive SOUTH to see snow I may CRY!!!

[packfan98]

Does it worry anyone else that the NAM has been the driest model when it's usually the wettest.  Also, many of the higher resolution models have more moisture consolidated in central/eastern NC instead of so far south as depicted on the nam.  I'm not sure what to believe right now but my gut feeling is not to buy the nam because it has little support.  However, it was the first 12z model so maybe it has better sampled data to work with?  Who knows!

[DaculaWeather]

Still OK. The exact timing will still not be known until much later. Right now trends are in our favor. While we may get screwed here in the northern 1/3 of GA, some others are going to do well. 

 

I see that little trend west. All systems this winter kept trending west as time went on and I don't see this one not following the same trend. How far may be the only question. A trend west with a quicker phase changes everything. Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but not entirely out of the question.

[Brick Tamland]

Does it worry anyone else that the NAM has been the driest model when it's usually the wettest.  Also, many of the higher resolution models have more moisture consolidated in central/eastern NC instead of so far south as depicted on the nam.  I'm not sure what to believe right now but my gut feeling is not to buy the nam because it has little support.  However, it was the first 12z model so maybe it has better sampled data to work with?  Who knows!

 

I thought the runs yesterday had better data because they had info from the recon, so they had real time data. Not sure this run had that. And like you said, the hi-res models have shown more, and I think they are supposed to be better when we're this close to the event.

[DaculaWeather]

HPC this morning:
 

 

A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF RECENT SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE 00ZGFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN/03Z SREF MEAN...SUGGEST THAT PHASINGOF THE ARCTIC AND POLAR JET STREAMS IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVERTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH COULD HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS FORCYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS WEEKENDIF SOME OF THESE SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT.  AT THE MOMENTHOWEVER...THE SOLUTION SPREAD IS TOO LARGE AND DETAILS OF THEEVOLVING PATTERN TOO UNCLEAR TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT LOWCONFIDENCE WITH THE SYSTEM DETAILS...INCLUDING QPF.  THUS...THELATEST QPF IS A BLEND OF BOTH LATEST GUIDANCE...WITH AN EMPHASISON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...AND FORECAST CONTINUITY...WITH THEUNDERSTANDING THAT FUTURE FORECAST CHANGES ARE LIKELY AS THE EVENTNEARS.  THIS APPROACH PRODUCES A SWATH OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OFLIQUID EQUIVALENT OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...SOME LIKELY FALLINGAS SNOW...WHILE PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEAST COASTRECEIVE UPWARDS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES OF LIQUIDEQUIVALENT...POSSIBLY MORE IF THE CANADIAN IS CORRECT.  REFER TOTHE QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION ON SNOW/ICE.

 

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_snow_disco.php

[MillerA]

Check out Charlotte wx latest tweets. Can't post from phone, pics of stormcast. Snow in Charlotte by 9am. They also posted a total map. 1" or 2" on grass.

[superjames1992]

The High-Res NAM sucked for NC, too, not that that is particularly a surprise given the regular NAM.

 

It looks like the RAP continues to show good things.  It's been consistent and let's hope it's right.

 

The 6z runs looked good.

[Pilotwx]

Here is another 1 of my dumb ideas as why the 12z nam might not be showing as much precip. If there would happen to be convection along the gulf coast then we might be getting a feedback problem. 

[burgertime]

This already looks like it's going to come down to nowcasting and someone will be left holding the bag. FWIW the RAP looks closer to the 12z NAM than the 6z for as far out as it goes....that will probably change. Remember phasing energy is extremely hard to predict. 

[MotoWeatherman]

Can you do one for my area? I'm pretty sure it'll show all rain though.

For Waycross at 1pm...despite 850's of minus 1 layer below 850 is just too warm unfortunately.

 

Date: 30 hour Eta valid 18Z SAT 16 FEB 13Station: AYSLatitude:   31.25Longitude: -82.40-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1011    36   7.6   3.1  73  4.5   5.5 309  18 279.9 280.7 278.1 292.9  4.73  1 1000   127   8.2   4.3  76  3.9   6.2 306  15 281.3 282.2 279.4 295.7  5.19  2  950   548   4.3   2.2  86  2.2   3.3 309  21 281.6 282.4 278.9 294.7  4.70  3  900   986   1.5   0.2  91  1.3   1.0 301  21 283.1 283.8 279.1 295.2  4.31  4  850  1444  -1.3  -1.9  96  0.6  -1.6 288  19 284.8 285.5 279.5 295.9  3.91  5  800  1925  -3.9  -4.9  93  1.0  -4.3 262  22 287.0 287.5 279.8 296.5  3.32  6  750  2432  -6.5  -7.5  93  1.0  -6.9 245  26 289.5 290.0 280.4 298.0  2.90  7  700  2968  -9.7 -10.2  96  0.6  -9.9 238  32 291.8 292.2 281.0 299.2  2.50  8  650  3536 -12.9 -13.6  94  0.7 -13.1 237  41 294.4 294.7 281.6 300.6  2.06  9  600  4142 -16.9 -18.4  88  1.5 -17.3 235  51 296.5 296.8 281.8 301.2  1.49 10  550  4789 -21.1 -24.0  78  2.9 -21.7 234  62 299.0 299.2 282.3 302.2  1.00 11  500  5486 -25.9 -32.8  52  6.9 -26.8 236  74 301.4 301.5 282.6 303.1  0.48 12  450  6240 -30.1 -47.5  17 17.3 -31.4 239  93 305.3 305.4 283.7 305.8  0.12 13  400  7074 -32.1 -52.0  12 19.8 -33.4 239 120 313.2 313.2 286.6 313.5  0.08 14  350  8012 -34.8 -57.2   8 22.5 -36.0 236 147 321.8 321.9 289.3 322.0  0.05 15  300  9076 -40.4 -62.8   7 22.4 -41.2 235 155 328.5 328.5 291.3 328.6  0.03