griteater Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 And then a last-minute flare up for Elizabeth City and Norfolk, of course. It wouldn't be a suppressed storm without those areas picking up twice what the piedmont gets. This is the type of storm that absolutely favors NE NC / SE VA....a late bloomer, with cold air available....but long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 .40 qpf all snow in immediate triad this run. I prefer 18z. Plenty more runs to get juiced up qpf wise covering a larger area or on the other hand get left at the altar again. It's better to see it suppressed at this point anyway. There's no reason for the storm to not cut north, so we want weaker. Otherwise, we get something that cuts through the piedmont and leaves all but the mountains in rain or dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's funny, early in the run it looked like the Western ridge was taller, but it didn't really translate to any more digging. It also looks like this run focuses on an earlier s/w, though I'm not sure about that. It might be the same one but it's just faster. Clearly,the massive discrepancy in the models tells us any solution is still possible. Would be nice to get the CMC or, even better, the Euro to join the UK/GFS camp with at least SOMETHING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 .40 qpf all snow in immediate triad this run. I prefer 18z. Plenty more runs to get juiced up qpf wise covering a larger area or on the other hand get left at the altar again. Not bad, really. Ratios should be good, so maybe 5"+? Things could be worse. I'm hoping for an earlier phase, obviously, though. I'd like to see a true Southeastern Snowstorm from Mississippi to North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Seems like the leading Vort over the Lakes was pretty different compared to the 18z and thus... yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's funny, early in the run it looked like the Western ridge was taller, but it didn't really translate to any more digging. It also looks like this run focuses on an earlier s/w, though I'm not sure about that. It might be the same one but it's just faster. Clearly,the massive discrepancy in the models tells us any solution is still possible. Would be nice to get the CMC or, even better, the Euro to join the UK/GFS camp with at least SOMETHING. Yep. No euro no storm. Need it to jump on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Going to be rough but maybe interesting week... This image makes me believe of a possible snow shadow setting up...GFS just lacks the resolution to show it to a better extent. The Piedmont precip could easily slip further east or north-east as well...I would be wanting to see this on Friday not Monday if I was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 You can see the strengthening jet streak at 300mb favoring upper divergence and lift where the precip breaks out over SC/NC at hours 90-120 (in left exit region of the jet). http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_0z/avnloopw.html (upper right panel) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Going to be rough but maybe interesting week... This image makes me believe of a possible snow shadow setting up...GFS just lacks the resolution to show it to a better extent. The Piedmont qpf could easily slip further east or north-east as well...I would be wanting to see this on Friday not Monday if I was there. The modeling isnt showing a shadow just a cutoff of the precip from east to west with the SLP track that far offshore the precip wont make it back to the foothills and mountains easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not bad, really. Ratios should be good, so maybe 5"+? Things could be worse. I'm hoping for an earlier phase, obviously, though. I'd like to see a true Southeastern Snowstorm from Mississippi to North Carolina. +1. I wish the whole board could get plastered to wash the bad aftertaste the past 2 years have brought. Unfortunately it easier said than done. Standing here 5 days out holding hands with the GFS doesn't exactly make me feel 9 foot tall and bulletproof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yep. No euro no storm. Need it to jump on Euro has been pretty hit or miss this year. As long as the storm is showing up on some models I wouldn't get too concerned if it isn't on the Euro in the next couple runs. Seems like the Euro has nailed the big storms (Sandy, snow last weekend which I refuse to call N***) and not much in between. I'm sure it will have better verification scores than the others overall (it always does) but it certainly has struggled picking up many of these smaller storms this winter in it's usual sweet spot time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The modeling isnt showing a shadow just a cutoff of the precip from east to west with the SLP track that far offshore the precip wont make it back to the foothills and mountains easily Yea more of a cutoff...but if the mountains ring out some snow showers I would classify it as a shadow here more-so by snow cover extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I still think this is a last second thing where maybe the coasts can see a bit of flurries. I think it could be a swing and a miss for many...JMO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 More ammo provided to the "18z runs of any model are trash" crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The cmc is west..slp in western KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looks to me like the main difference with the CMC is that it gets the trough to neutral tilt WAAAAAAAY earlier than the other models. At 84 hours on the 0z run, it's already neutral, centered back over Texas. NAM and GFS not even close to a neutral tilt by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The UK Met looks similar to last run, I think, but it's really hard to tell as there's only a few maps available past 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 UK has nothing at 96 hours then a 999 surface low NE of Hatteras at 120. Hard to tell when that pops up (hopefully at hour 97!!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 More ammo provided to the "18z runs of any model are trash" crowd. Well I don't think the GFS showed one run consistency today. I was surprised someone picked the 18z and started a thread believe it or not. None of them looked close to one another so I won't blame the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Ukie still has the storm, tough to tell what would happen between 96 and 120hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 0z GEFS pops a broad low over VA/NC coast at 120 and than rapidly strengthens and pounds MA-NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Actually fairly amazing to see such a strong storm for the ens mean at 132 in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 UKMet heights really crash between hours 96-120....http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=60&carte=1021 UK has nothing at 96 hours then a 999 surface low NE of Hatteras at 120. Hard to tell when that pops up (hopefully at hour 97!!!) Ukie still has the storm, tough to tell what would happen between 96 and 120hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 0z GEFS pops a broad low over VA/NC coast at 120 and than rapidly strengthens and pounds MA-NE. Yep, 992 is impressive for an ensemble mean no doubt! UKMet heights really crash between hours 96-120....http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=60&carte=1021 The trough at 120hrs is incredible. Storm or not it's gonna get really cold over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I would estimate that the ensemble mean is wetter than the op for most places (even here). That is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I would estimate that the ensemble mean is wetter than the op for most places (even here). That is a good sign. Yep, likely means there will be a number of good ensemble members when they come out later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Going to be rough but maybe interesting week... This image makes me believe of a possible snow shadow setting up...GFS just lacks the resolution to show it to a better extent. The Piedmont precip could easily slip further east or north-east as well...I would be wanting to see this on Friday not Monday if I was there. You're just a character, I always get a good neck workout when I read your posts because I'm always shaking my head so much. It's not a shadow if the mtns aren't getting anything either, it's called the precip doesn't make it that far north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 You're just a character, I always get a good neck workout when I read your posts because I'm always shaking my head so much. It's not a shadow if the mtns aren't getting anything either, it's called the precip doesn't make it that far north and west. The mountains do get something, I am looking at other snowfall maps as well. You are right about the precip...I am just going by snow cover accumulative extent it makes it seem there are very little amounts extending from Virginia foothills south to Asheville, NC. Guess it doesn't really matter at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The west coast ridge is sharper at 96. I'm just looking at the free maps. but I wouldn't be surprised if this run is an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The west coast ridge is sharper at 96. I'm just looking at the free maps. but I wouldn't be surprised if this run is an improvement. Just took a peek at SV maps...so suppressed I don't even think the coast gets flurries....cold as heck though, that's a mean trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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