burrel2 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The RAP looks awesome when you loop it. A nice consolidated pocket of energy dropping through the mississippi valley that appears to be getting better organized and stronger with each frame. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php I'm starting to get a little excited; however, I am in the same boat as lookout with respect to qpf. This event reminds me of many in the early 2000's where I didn't see a flake and Greenville,SC and points to the east get a nice snow. On the postivie side, it kind of looks to me like our trough is dropping far enough south now to get a little bit of gulf moisture involved. It is especially evident when you look at the sim radars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Chris, I feel your pain, I'm in the same boat here. Twin screw... Unless there is a big storm and tons of cold air, north Ga gets screwed more than anyone at the same latitude. Most of the time it's because of the damn mountains not allowing the cold air to come in and downslope (especially here). But this year the mountains have gotten a few snow events. The rest of us haven't seen much or anything at all. I haven't seen a flake all year. My "highlight" has been a light glaze of freezing rain...whooo hoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 LOL Henry has Buncombe County (Asheville nc) in the 3-6 range for snow, GSP says little or no accum. who do you believe? have the trends for a more negative tilt become that good just this morning? can any body or some mets with the knowledge chime in on this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Great catch sir. I assume BL will be an issue around here. But loving the returns starting at 29 till they move out.. Simulated radar images from the 06Z Hi-Res NAM also look very encouraging for many parts of the Carolinas: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam4km/06zNAM4kmreflectivity_SE.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Starting to see the players. Trough the last few frames can be see starting to tilt. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z NAM is rolling. Already at 6 hours our energy in the SW looks stronger compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 KCHS kills my dream saying that the "cold air will be chasing the moisture" along the coast. Looks like we may be just a little too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 KCHS kills my dream saying that the "cold air will be chasing the moisture" along the coast. Looks like we may be just a little too warm. I was just looking at the 6z GFS soundings for CHS and I would have to say that i agree. But keep watching the trends as this could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Anyone with call maps yet? Yeah, I know this was sudden... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 @15 vort in TX is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z nam @ hour 12 looks like energy is also farther southwest and axis is sharpening quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Good bit stronger with both pieces comparing it to the 21 hr 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Henry has Buncombe County in the 3-6 range for snow, GSP says little or no accum. who do you believe? have the trends for a more negative tilt become that good just this morning? can any body or some mets with the knowledge chime in on this one? It develops too late for us. Unless something big changes then the storm developes to our east and we just get snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Good bit stronger with both pieces comparing it to the 21 hr 6z GFS Yesterday's run had the same thing. The nam's upper energy was more pronounced but the GFS was wetter at the surface. I'm thinking that the nam will be wetter on today's modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This is going to be an interesting run. @18 you're getting some interaction with the two pieces of energy. Looks better than 6z..let's see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Oh man if this trends even more west and leaves ILM in all rain.... I just may never follow weather again, or at least for a few weeks. Nam looks impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It develops too late for us. Unless something big changes then the storm developes to our east and we just get snow showers. thanks franklin, any possibility this trends a little more west, I'm starting to hear the energy is more southwest and the axis is sharpening up some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 What is ILM? Oh man if this trends even more west and leaves ILM in all rain.... I just may never follow weather again, or at least for a few weeks. Nam looks impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This is going to be an interesting run. @18 you're getting some interaction with the two pieces of energy. Looks better than 6z..let's see where it goes. I agree burger if I'm not mistaken the GFS tilted negative quicker than the Nam on the 6z. At 24 hrs on the 6z GFS you can see the energy starts to get its act together over eastern TX LA area whereas the Nam is starting to get some interaction with the vort and its still over southwestern TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 What is ILM? Wilmington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 thanks franklin, any possibility this trends a little more west, I'm starting to hear the energy is more southwest and the axis is sharpening up some. It could, northern stream energy that phases like this is, is always a tricky forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepSouthSC Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 What is ILM? Wilmington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 If this trends more west is that good or bad for CAE? This is going to be an interesting run. @18 you're getting some interaction with the two pieces of energy. Looks better than 6z..let's see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Hmmm...this run might not cut it. @24 12z NAM has no moisture at all on the surface map....@30 on 6z it had a some light moisture in central AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The vort dropping through the midwest is farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 @33 some light moisture pops in GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 There's a lot of energy in Texas at hour 21 that wasn't there before. I don't know what that will mean later on. The surface looks dry as Burger says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Really hard to tell if there is much change with the orientation @27...that southern vort still hasn't really phased totally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Really hard to tell if there is much change with the orientation @27...that southern vort still hasn't really phased totally. Yea your right instead of being over southern LA it is farther south in the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 @30 much more precip in southern ga into western sc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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