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WidreMann told us it was gonna snow thread

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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Pilotwx

Pilotwx

Posted
Posted

Looks like the same crap for my area! :axe:   Hope you folks N,S,E, and W of me get some snow!!!

 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. NORTHWEST

WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST

WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

 

 

 

 

 

64412_485671624825112_370099340_n.png

The models are leaving us watching this one. 

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msuwx

msuwx

Posted
Posted

I'll take my .3 and run with it Matt! Thanks for the update. Music to this :weenie: ears!

Haha... yeah, that'd be nice. This is a tricky one....hard to have any confidence at all really.

 

 

At the risk of sounding MBY-ish did you see a number for FAY? Thanks!

0.32"

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
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Even FFC is honking the horn that metro ATL could see some flurries or a brief snow shower early Saturday morning. Larry your early analysis of climo with these type of systems looks to be dead on. It doesn't look like much but ill take a flizzard and smile. As for you guys west of here.... A snow chase to Columbia would be pretty odd odd... And for NC good luck guys I'm pulling for you and our southern VA posters as well. Good luck!

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

GSP's overnight:

 

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSHACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE SHORT TERM...AND THIS SETS UPQUITE THE INTERESTING FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. THE MODELS GENERALLYAGREE THAT A POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THETROUGH TOMORROW...PENETRATING WELL INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. FORSEVERAL DAYS..MODEL TENDENCIES HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THIS WAVE WOULDBECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...RESULTING IN RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...BUT FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THATSENSIBLE WEATHER EFFECTS IN OUR AREA WOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE.HOWEVER...THE MODELS (ESP THE GFS) ARE TRENDING TOWARD AN EARLIER/MORE INLAND NEGATIVE TILT PHASE...WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING CLOSERTO THE COAST AND PRECIP DEVELOPMENT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL GEORGIATHROUGH MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT...THE GFS SQUEEZES OUT .1 TO.25 INCH OF QPF ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. ALTHOUGH THE NAM ISDRIER...EVEN IT FORECASTS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THEEASTERN ZONES. THIS IS A /BIG DEAL/ BECAUSE PARTIAL THICKNESS PROGSSUPPORT SNOW AS THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OFTHE AREA. EXAMINATION OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE GEFS) DOESSUGGEST THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT OF A INLAND/WET OUTLIER.HOWEVER...THE TRENDS IN GUIDANCE ARE A BIT ALARMING...AND IT IS NOTAT ALL UNCOMMON FOR THE MODELS TO POORLY HANDLE THE TIMING OF THETRANSITION OF A SHORT WAVE TO A NEGATIVE TILT PHASE. WE WILL BEGINSLOWLY RAMPING UP POPS FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THESOUTHEAST ZONES. WE WILL GENERALLY MENTION A RA/SN MIX...BUT ONCEWET BULB CONSIDERATIONS ARE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT...THE PREDOMINANTP-TYPE SHOULD INDEED BE SNOW. WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING 30-40POPS FOR ABOUT A HALF INCH OF SNOW...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THISFORECAST TO BUST ON THE WET SIDE...AND THE FACT THAT IT/S BEEN ACOUPLE OF YEARS SINCE THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT SAW MEASURABLE SNOW...WEWILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A BRIEF MENTION IN THE HWO.
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beanskip

beanskip

Posted
Posted

Love the trend, but please don't ignore the BL issues advertised by the GFS. When the bulk of my precip falls (at 36 hr on the 6z GFS), my soundings show it's 37 degrees at the surface. Obviously no way I'm going to see accumulations at that temp. I get another tenth or so at 42 hours, but I will probably be cutting my QPF in half for purposes of snow estimates.

 

Made the mistake of ignoring in all the hubbub last storm -- not doing it again.

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RaleighWx

RaleighWx

Posted
Posted

Some of our in-house hi-res models at my company were excited yesterday about this, and as I have said all week the potential remained despite the model waffling. Now our hi-res models are getting really excited. Not sure I completely buy them yet, but some really interesting ones.

 

I am working on an examiner discussion now. Should have it out later.

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crossthread

crossthread

Posted
Posted

KILM=NOWCAST EVENT

 

Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...
as of 300 am Friday...forecast challenge for the short term
continues to center around the potent short wave that will arrive
Saturday afternoon along with the Arctic airmass and the increasing
possibility of snowfall.


The 0000 UTC guidance has trended decidedly wetter with the NAM/met
and GFS/mav numbers advertising categorical probability of precipitation for Saturday
afternoon. It appears the potent wave now being sampled in the upper
air network has made the difference. Regardless of the reason...I
have increased probability of precipitation for the afternoon and evening hours while adding
in a rain and snow mix then to snow before ending late Saturday
evening. Thermal profiles taken at perfect forecasts Don/T warrant a
complete changeover until late but with evaporational cooling with
the strong frontogenesis in the 850 to 700mb layer...and the fact I
just Don/T see saturdays maximum temperatures getting out of the 40s.. a
longer period of seeing snowfall appears likely. I have used a
threshold of 41 degrees for a rain/snow mix and 38 degrees for all
snow. The system will exit quickly early Sunday with cold air
advection continuing and maximum temperatures not getting out of the 40s.

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beanskip

beanskip

Posted
Posted

Will be interested in your thoughts on how BL issues will affect potential accumulations. I know that I tend to get caught up in the 850 temp maps and not put enough stock in the soundings (esp. when 850s seem so cold, like with this system).

Some of our in-house hi-res models at my company were excited yesterday about this, and as I have said all week the potential remained despite the model waffling. Now our hi-res models are getting really excited. Not sure I completely buy them yet, but some really interesting ones.

 

I am working on an examiner discussion now. Should have it out later.

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

CAE is not drinking the kool-aid  :whistle:

 

 

 

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE MOISTUREWILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATUREGUIDANCE BECAUSE OF MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE MODELSCONTINUED TO SHOW DEEP UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPING SATURDAY WITHENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOISTURE ANDINSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.THE NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS HAVE TRENDED WITH HIGHER POPS.BASED ON THIS TREND WE INCREASED POPS BUT STILL LEANED TOWARD THELOWER NAM VALUES BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND H85 COLD ADVECTION.ALSO...THE 00Z GFS APPEARED TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE SREFGUIDANCE AND EARLIER GFS RUNS. THE NAM POPS WERE ALSO SUPPORTED BYTHE SREF GUIDANCE WHERE MOST MEMBERS INDICATED A GRADIENT OF POPSRANGING FROM NEAR 40 PERCENT IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION TO LESS THAN20 PERCENT IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA. ALL OF THE MODELSINDICATED GREATER MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE NORTHEAST PART CLOSERTO LOW PRESSURE THAT SHOULD DEVELOP OFF THE COAST IN RESPONSE TOTHE STRONG MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS APROBLEM. THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST OF 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES ANDH85 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SNOW. HOWEVER...THE MODEL TEMPERATUREPROFILES INDICATE RAIN UNLESS SIGNIFICANT WET-BULB COOLING OCCURSWHICH IS QUESTIONABLE BECAUSE OF EXPECTED LIGHT AMOUNTS. SOILTEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY WARM AND WITH MARGINAL NEAR-SURFACETEMPERATURES LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION SHOULD OCCUR. ANYPRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAYNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THEAREA. THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TOO WARM SATURDAY BASED ONTHE COLD UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH AND EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.
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FLO

FLO

Posted
Posted

As long as Ben Tanner stays off the bandwagon we are good. Lol

CAE is not drinking the kool-aid :whistle:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE MODELS
CONTINUED TO SHOW DEEP UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPING SATURDAY WITH
ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.
THE NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS HAVE TRENDED WITH HIGHER POPS.
BASED ON THIS TREND WE INCREASED POPS BUT STILL LEANED TOWARD THE
LOWER NAM VALUES BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND H85 COLD ADVECTION.
ALSO...THE 00Z GFS APPEARED TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE SREF
GUIDANCE AND EARLIER GFS RUNS. THE NAM POPS WERE ALSO SUPPORTED BY
THE SREF GUIDANCE WHERE MOST MEMBERS INDICATED A GRADIENT OF POPS
RANGING FROM NEAR 40 PERCENT IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION TO LESS THAN
20 PERCENT IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA. ALL OF THE MODELS
INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE NORTHEAST PART CLOSER
TO LOW PRESSURE THAT SHOULD DEVELOP OFF THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO
THE STRONG MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A
PROBLEM. THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST OF 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND
H85 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SNOW. HOWEVER...THE MODEL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES INDICATE RAIN UNLESS SIGNIFICANT WET-BULB COOLING OCCURS
WHICH IS QUESTIONABLE BECAUSE OF EXPECTED LIGHT AMOUNTS. SOIL
TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY WARM AND WITH MARGINAL NEAR-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION SHOULD OCCUR. ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TOO WARM SATURDAY BASED ON
THE COLD UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH AND EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.
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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

Dynamics at their finest!

I'm sure I'll get some very light snow but I'm pretty pissed the models show the heaviest precip starting just tens of miles away at the ga/sc border. Hell even central ga gets in on the act possiblly. So If that comes to pass, that would mean virtually everywhere around  except here would get appreciable snow in the southeast.. :axe:

 

I know there is still time for this to go negative sooner  but not much time. The 06z hires model doesn't  look bad, 0.10 to 0.25. but still very very close to the edge. Problem is, it usually overdoes precip amounts.The 06z nam shows a tenth while greenwood has 0.35 and 0.25 literally just 25 miles or less away but still very very close to the edge with areas 25 to 30 miles away getting nothing to the N/NW/W. 06z gfs/ensembles are even worse with what looks like a trough hanging back into the upstate..and giving them 0.50 liquid while I/rest of north ga get virtually nothing but flurries.I would not count that out either..I've seen these troughs hanging back from a coastal low  do exactly that. One time in particular such a trough gave me 4 inches when virtually nothing was forecasted

 

Now saying 25-30 miles 36 to 42 hours out is silly, the problem is there is more than one model showing it.

 

03z sref is better showing precip (although lite) with 0.10 here.

 

It would just figure the one time that temps are no doubt cold enough for snow to reach the surface, it could happen like this. Now I'm not saying it will and again there is still time but then again it could go the other way too.

 

Knowing the tendency of my area to get screwed, my money is on seeing 40 miles away getting 0.25 (or more) while I'll get a few hundredths..if that. Only hope is this given the complicated pattern (which means models might not be handling this right) and as noted by gsp the models having a tendency of not handling shortwaves turning negatively tilted, maybe it will turn negatively tilted thus more snow/precip. OTOH, it could go the other way of course.

 

Sorry to focus on my backyard but this is frustrating as hell to see. (although I do focus on NE/north ga too so I guess that's my "out" lol.) I'd love to see more than an inch but good grief all I'm asking for is a freaking inch. If I see greenwood get several inches and I don't anything but flurries or less even I'll nut up. Sad thing is it's possible. Sigh :( :( :(

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packfan98

packfan98

Posted
Posted

Well, the 6z GFS ensemble mean was wetter than the 0z.  The individual members all have some snow in the SE.  Most have two local maximums: one in SC and one in NC.  I'm rooting for those south and east of me to get in on a little snow that would salvage the winter (especially in comparison to last winter).  Here are some snow maps to feast on from the 6z:

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/06zsnowf048.html

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

Sorry to focus on my backyard but this is frustrating as hell to see. (although I do focus on NE/north ga too so I guess that's my "out" lol.) I'd love to see more than an inch but good grief all I'm asking for is a freaking inch. Sigh

Chris, I feel your pain, I'm in the same boat here. Twin screw...

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