Jon Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yup Euro is close to GFS solution...snow in central NC and majority of it in NE NC....1-3" accumulations offhand from the 6hr maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yup Euro is close to GFS solution...snow in central NC and majority of it in NE NC....1-3" accumulations offhand from the 6hr maps how does it look for the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 how does it look for the coast? Morehead City to Wilson, NC to Henderson, NC and right of that line is about 3" Majority of NC gets about 1" Columbia, SC north and northeast of Columbia gets in on it too, about 1" Hard to tell until I see real accumulation maps but this is a trend if I've ever seen one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Fwiw, the 0Z Doctor clown map has 1"+ of snow only in extreme NE NC and a tiny patch on the NC/TN line. It doesn't show under 1" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 0z Euro is on board albeit very conservatively - band from Norfolk to Macon, GA at 39 hr on to more fluffy love for Greenville SC and NE NC at 45 hr. Might just be eye candy, and you'll need a flashlight. Trend?!? Lily, my golden retriever hopes so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Every GFS individual ensemble member has snow in CAE. some 3" +. @ 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Umm...guys...I present to you the 00z GFS individual ensemble members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Umm...guys...I present to you the 00z GFS individual ensemble members TY Jon. Hopefully this holds up or gets better for everyone and actually verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 0z Canadian snow as the low exits...snow/wintry mix in previous frames for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 One important thing about the GFS ensembles is that they are consistent and they are further west than the op is. Thus, perhaps the op hasn't come far enough west yet and at the same time it gives the op some credibility. The Euro will help me sleep well tonight. I was cringing before I looked at it a few minutes ago, expecting disaster! By the way, the 06z RAP at initialization has the trough/ridge setup further to the west than the 00z NAM had it at hr 6. Good news, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 One important thing about the GFS ensembles is that they are consistent and they are further west than the op is. Thus, perhaps the op hasn't come far enough west yet and at the same time it gives the op some credibility. The Euro will help me sleep well tonight. I was cringing before I looked at it a few minutes ago, expecting disaster! By the way, the 06z RAP at initialization has the trough/ridge setup further to the west than the 00z NAM had it at hr 6. Good news, yes? James, I barely want to think if people don't have warning and IF the RAP is going to verify. It's the weekend.. But NO fear mongering from me.. I think the odds are low to pop a low in the gulf/neg tilt around Lousiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Glad to see it trending colder with the trough all the way into the gulf. Get that good cold energy mixing with the heat, and make it go boom. At least mini boom I've already gone from nothing to .01 with it cold enough for some good virga snow Won't take much for a storm to show up down there, if the cold gets down there. And now some more deep pushing cold is snowing up in funnyland. Haven't seen two on a map in a long while. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 06Z NAM def. doing SC good (especially the midlands) precip wise. I'll tell you guys... this is gonna be a nowcast event. I'd love for MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, VA to all get something great. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Hi-Res NAM is a pretty significant hit for a good chunk of the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 .42 this run for KCUB. This is really turning into something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 6Z GFS definetly looks wetter. SC does well. Most of this falls after 850s crash to below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Very interesting. The weenie in me keeps thinking the "Carolina Crusher". From RAH: .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY......POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OFCENTRAL NC SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...VERY INTERESTING SETUP IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DYNAMICAND POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE PATTERN. IF UPSTREAM QPF OVER THE DEEPSOUTH SATURDAY MORNING IS ACCURATE...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVEDIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL CYCLONE WILLREMAIN PROGRESSIVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINAS...WITH LIGHTPRECIPITATION AND ANY WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL OF THE NUISANCEVARIETY. HOWEVER...IF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNDER-DONE(ESPECIALLY WELL UNDER-DONE) WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS IN ADVANCE OF THEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...WHICHIS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE IN THIS TYPE OF SETUP...THE ASSOCIATED LATENTHEAT RELEASE AND RESULTING DOWNSTREAM RIDGING COULD FURTHER AMPLIFYTHE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE SAT INTO SATNIGHT...RESULTING IN A SLOWER/STRONGER SURFACE CYCLONE THAT IS MUCHCLOSER TO THE COAST...AND A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHERACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.WILL HAVE TO PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION OVERTHE DEEP SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING...AND HOW WELL MODEL GUIDANCE ISVERIFYING W/REGARD TO QPF. THE LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDEDWETTER OVERALL SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A GOOD 0.25" OFLIQUID EQUIVALENT OVER CENTRAL NC (ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1) BETWEEN 18ZSAT AFTERNOON AND 06-12Z SUN IN ASSOC/W STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS.FCST SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PRECIP BEGINNING ASRAIN SAT AFTERNOON...WITH A BOUNDARY LAYER (LOWEST 2-3 KFT)INITIALLY JUST TOO WARM AND INSUFFICIENTLY DRY ENOUGH TO SUPPORTFROZEN PTYPES. HOWEVER...AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE BEGINS TORAPIDLY DEEPEN OFFSHORE...THE ONSET OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLDADVECTION /NORTHERLY FLOW/ SATURDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ARAPID CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN-SNOW BY ~00Z. IF AND HOW MUCH SNOWACCUMULATION OCCURS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON PRECIPITATIONAMOUNTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESFC CYCLONE AS OUTLINED ABOVE. GIVEN THE PRECIP AMOUNTS CURRENTLYANTICIPATED AND THE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER...EXPECT A POTENTIALFOR UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 SATURDAYEVENING/NIGHT...PRIMARILY FROM THE TRIANGLE EAST TO GOLDSBORO NORTHTO ROANOKE RAPIDS. A MORE THOROUGH DISCUSSION WILL BE FORTHCOMINGSHORTLY. -VINCENT&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looks like RAH is scratching there head too...amazing piece they wrote, thanks for posting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looking at Bufkit , before most 6z runs... CAE will see snow of some fashion. Models/ensembles ranges from 0.00 to around 7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looks like the same crap for my area! Hope you folks N,S,E, and W of me get some snow!!! .SATURDAY...CLOUDY. MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. NORTHWESTWINDS AROUND 10 MPH..SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWESTWINDS AROUND 10 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 What is the timeframe for this? Seeing it fall is the best part unless your a kid. I hope its not while we sleep. Looking at Bufkit , before most 6z runs... CAE will see snow of some fashion. Models/ensembles ranges from 0.00 to around 7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 What is the timeframe for this? Seeing it fall is the best part unless your a kid. I hope its not while we sleep. It varies, but Sat afternoon/early sat night.. POSSIBLY into early Sunday morning if it strengthens/etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Uhm, wow, wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Big congratulations to upstate SC and downeast NC on the 6z GFS. .4 to. 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 6z 4km NAM numbers after BUFKIT soundings support snow.... CLT: 0.3" GSO: 0.12" ECG: 0.59" CAE: 0.28" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Awesome trends guys and it's good to see the Euro finally fold. This should once and for all prove that for this winter the Euro really hasn't been king, especially for the SE. We'll see where we finally end up but something tells me this one could def. overperform and given the RAP really juicing those vorts up we could have something big on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 6z 4km NAM numbers after BUFKIT soundings support snow.... CLT: 0.3" GSO: 0.12" ECG: 0.59" CAE: 0.28" I'll take my .3 and run with it Matt! Thanks for the update. Music to this ears! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 607 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN TRACK EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTENSIFY OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON... HOWEVER...PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING THAT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. THIS INCLUDES THE TRIANGLE...GOLDSBORO...ROCKY MOUNT...AND ROANOKE RAPIDS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE PRECISE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW... WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND...AND TO BE PREPARED FOR A PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Atlanta: THE NEXT ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP ON SATURDAY. BOTHTHE GFS AND NAM HAVE A BULLSEYE OF OVER 1 INCH SOUTH OF CSG BY 18ZSATURDAY. 21Z SREF PROBS KEPT THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE SNOWMUCH FARTHER NORTH...BUT THE NEW 03Z RUN JUST COMING IN LENDS MUCHMORE CREDENCE TO THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS WITH A SWATH OF 60-70PERCENT MEASURABLE SNOW BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAIN AND CTJ AT12Z SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN ATL AND CSG AT 15Z /THOUGH THESE PROBSARE FOR LESS THAN 1 INCH ACCUM/. OF COURSE...THE VERY STRONG CAAWILL BE COMPETING WITH RETREATING MOISTURE. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATESFROM 18-21Z ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO A VERY CONVECTIVELY-DRIVENEVENT WITH WIDESPREAD COLD AIR STRATOCU OR PERHAPS EVEN COLD AIRCU...BUT THE DEPTH OF CONVECTION WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON MOISTUREAVAILABILITY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREABY THAT SAME TIME...PUSHING THE BEST MOISTURE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.850MB TEMPS DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY WITH THE STRONG CAAALOFT SO THICKNESSES ALL AGREE ON SNOW AT 850MB...IT IS JUST AMATTER OF WHETHER IT WILL MELT BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. WITH THEEXPECTED CONVECTION...IT IS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST SOME SNOW WILLREACH THE GROUND ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA IN A BRIEF WINDOW WHEREINCOMING COLD TEMPS WILL LINE UP BEST WITH THE MOISTURE. HOWEVER...IN CONVECTION...SURFACE TEMPS DO NOT HAVE TO BE QUITE AS COLD FORSNOW TO REACH THE GROUND...SO EXPECT THAT SNOW WILL FALL AT TEMPS INTHE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 30S. THIS SAID...HAVE BROUGHT THERAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO EXTREME SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAYMORNING...WITH ALL SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS A FRANKLIN TO MCDONOUGH TOATHENS LINE. AT THIS POINT...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ASMOISTURE IS JUST NOT REALLY DEEP ENOUGH BUT MOISTURE TRENDS WILLHAVE TO BE MONITORED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 6z 4km NAM numbers after BUFKIT soundings support snow.... CLT: 0.3" GSO: 0.12" ECG: 0.59" CAE: 0.28" At the risk of sounding MBY-ish did you see a number for FAY? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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