WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 0z RGEM -- pretty nice precip field -- all the green is .1 or higher. rgemthursnight.jpg RN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 RN Bummer, and the RGEM has 4dVAR and higher res now. For now, hugging the GFS and NAM...more like a Kung fu death drip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'll be happy if I get an inch out this...2 inches and I'll be doing cartwheels! That's what she said?....LOL Let's hope that the good trends continue and we get something nice from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Recon is out getting more data. Morning runs should be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Good luck NC and SC. I do think the January 2000 talk is going to disappoint. I don't see how some of you think there is any comparison other than location. If your thinking Carolina Crusher keep dreaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 One of our favorite Tidbit and Teasers mets just tweeted....sounds like he is scratching his head but ends by saying he expects west shift... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Good luck NC and SC. I do think the January 2000 talk is going to disappoint. I don't see how some of you think there is any comparison other than location. I hate that it comes up any time there's a chance of snow that the forecasters aren't already calling for. We've had plenty of systems come through that went from nothing to something, but that something wasn't much. December 2004 comes to mind. It was out to sea for a while, but it came back...for the coastal plain. RDU get screwed mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 One of our favorite Tidbit and Teasers mets just tweeted....sounds like he is scratching his head but ends by saying he expects west shift... Who? DT, Robert? I hate that it comes up any time there's a chance of snow that the forecasters aren't already calling for. We've had plenty of systems come through that went from nothing to something, but that something wasn't much. December 2004 comes to mind. It was out to sea for a while, but it came back...for the coastal plain. RDU get screwed mostly. The Christmas/Boxing Day Snowstorm kind of came out of nowhere on Christmas Eve. The modeling had shifted the SLP track well offshore at that point. NW trend FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Good luck NC and SC. I do think the talk is going to disappoint. I don't see how some of you think there is any comparison other than location. You had to say it Debbie! Nobody thinks we are going to get a foot of snow, but some may get lucky and see 3-4". Long shot but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Who? DT, Robert? JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I told you guys earlier that this has the possibility of Jan2000 written all over it! Even the Gfs snowfall map shows theNW foothills getting o big ole goose egg of no snow. Get ready for some cliff diving! Should we expect anything more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GFS with 2m temps in the upper 30's low 40's, yuck, thickness is another story, rgem sn flag obviously not checked, expecting -rn Christmas/Boxing day should not even be in the conv, models had that for awhile then lost it, models never had this one except for a blip last Saturday at 0z, after that is was mostly high and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GFS with 2m temps in the upper 30's low 40's, yuck, thickness is another story, rgem sn flag obviously not checked, expecting -rn I'm not too worried. If precip is light enough that BL temps will be an issue, then it will be light enough to be boring. If the storm continues to trend closer, precip will be heavier and more cold air will be pulled down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'm not too worried. If precip is light enough that BL temps will be an issue, then it will be light enough to be boring. If the storm continues to trend closer, precip will be heavier and more cold air will be pulled down. Great point Widre! I think it will be cooler than advertised by most models as precip begins to cool the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GFS with 2m temps in the upper 30's low 40's, yuck, thickness is another story, rgem sn flag obviously not checked, expecting -rn Really bad timing as the bulk of the precip hits Sat aftn on the GFS. Looks like it will be rain to snow in central/eastern Carolinas. Temps are crashing aloft, but the issue is right at the surface. In this type of setup, I would go with surface wet bulbs in the upper 30's supporting a rain/snow mix, and sfc wet-bulbs in the mid-30's supporting mostly snow...I have seen GSP comment in the past that it is very difficult to get all snow with surface wet bulbs above 35, regardless of the temperatures aloft....and that played out well with the upper low that tracked through here on Jan 17-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 C Crusher? I told you guys earlier that this has the possibility of Jan2000 written all over it! Even the Gfs snowfall map shows theNW foothills getting o big ole goose egg of no snow. Get ready for some cliff diving! Was I that obvious! :-))) If you look at the maps of that unnamed storm it is interesting, lightning never strikes twice in the same place, but.... This setup reminds me of a storm with a deep trough where all the models kept developing the surface low to far east...I won't speak that storms name. I know that wont happen, but it has some similarities. :-) I know what you're alluding to. I have a feeling the precip shield is going to move a little farther west, too. Those around the Raleigh area you might get to relive your Jan 2000 storm. While us back to the west in the foothills will get to watch the news and see it snowing!! The models are showing the possibility of this being a good snow storm for Eastern NC, To the west our usual dry slot, skipped, avoided, and watching in envy looks to be the case according to most models. What?????? Jan 2000 storm??? I wish but would bet the house we see nothing more than a flurry. Hope you are right, what makes you think so? You had to say it Debbie! Nobody thinks we are going to get a foot of snow, but some may get lucky and see 3-4". Long shot but not impossible. After 7 posts (just today) someone had to say it and I'm unapologetic about it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 After 7 posts (just today) someone had to say it and I'm unapologetic about it as well. Well, me mentioning C Crusher means nothing really because MBY only saw a couple inches if that (which is close to what 00z gfs shows for here)... and well.. a comma head did show up on a model or two for NC. everyone's weenie just came out because 00z GFS was so vastly different than grasping at straws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 My back yard.. omg.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Here is precip type of gfs mean from the same time as precip map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Here is precip type of gfs mean from the same time as precip map: Lol little blob west of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Holy crap, the ensembles look fantastic, Shawn. There must be some true gems among the individual members! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Holy crap, the ensembles look fantastic, Shawn. There must be some true gems among the individual members! Surely, I bet even NC looks better in many of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Wow that esemble run is insane. Would love to see the individual members, imagine if the event trends wetter tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 well I cant say that today's trends have been anything short of encouraging however temps still seem to be a issue but hopefully they get worked out as the models get a handle on it. These are the type of events I love poorly modeled in the mid range threats that have huge upside potential..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Things are beginning to come together. At least there will be something to track, radar to watch and snow observations to possibly report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Wow that esemble run is insane. Would love to see the individual members, imagine if the event trends wetter tomorrow! They will be out in a couple hours on Allan's site/this site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 nam, nam4km, gfs3, and sref bufkit gives light snow to KRDU from 6 p.m. 2-16-13 til 1 a.m. 2-17-13. Starts as rain, shifts to snow within an hour. Just updated all data and ran the precip type soundings. It will be a mighty wet snow though..if it holds. fingers crossed since my dog loves to play in the stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Anxious to see if the euro folds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seahawkbaseball#6 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'm catching up but there's a 991 just north off the coast that's neg... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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