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WidreMann told us it was gonna snow thread


LithiaWx

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This setup reminds me of a storm with a deep trough where all the models kept developing the surface low to far east...I won't speak that storms name. I know that wont happen, but it has some similarities. :-)

 

I know what you're alluding to. I have a feeling the precip shield is going to move a little farther west, too.

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Short term /6 am Friday morning through Saturday night/...
as of 230 PM Thursday...a middle and upper trough will begin to dig
across the MS valley Friday then shift across the eastern United
States by Saturday afternoon and night. At the surface...a cold
front will shift off the coast during Saturday. 850 mb temperatures become
quite cold as the trough moves through...but moisture availability
is in question to support some light precipitation. Latest GFS
implies there may be a slight chance of flurries along with a chance
of light rain. Given the westerly trajectory the GFS may be
overdone...thus the drier NAM is preferred at the moment with a
slight chance of rain or sprinkles with very little to no quantitative precipitation forecast.
Latest European model (ecmwf) has some light quantitative precipitation forecast Saturday...and cold temperatures moving in
at 850 mb...however surface temperatures remain above 40f as the best
(albeit limited) moisture treks through. Still need to keep an eye
on this...especially if positive vorticity advection maximum can move overhead versus skirting by
the forecast area.
 

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What did I tell you guys yesterday? I knew the storm would come back and sure enough it did. Maybe we had to sacrifice a UNC victory over Duke, but if that's what it takes, I'll settle for it.

 

The reason it came back is because you started acting like normal Widre last night instead of that other guy you were acting like on Tuesday.

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That's a big hole from the triad to Wilkesboro.  Ughhhh

TW

 

Most of us get 0.10-0.25" QPF.  I suppose that rates aren't high enough to overcome warm BL temps, but I'm not sure.  I'm not sure if I've ever seen a situation where E NC got snow while we got rain, though.

 

And with 850s near -10C, I'm just not sure if I can buy torching BL temps.

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This setup reminds me of a storm with a deep trough where all the models kept developing the surface low to far east...I won't speak that storms name. I know that wont happen, but it has some similarities. :-)[/quote

E neg tilt 3-6 hou

Funny thing is if you look at the frames past 54 the storm really goes to town. The only thing preventing a repeat scenario would be to get the negative tilt 3-6 hours earlier. This would help cyclogenesis occur quicker and we would all get a decent event . Not gonna get some big pivot like we did with the 2000 storm, but it would give all of us what we desperately need, more qpf.

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The reason it came back is because you started acting like normal Widre last night instead of that other guy you were acting like on Tuesday.

Probably.

 

I promise never to be optimistic again.

 

I want to see the 00z Canadian and Euro lock on to the trend as well. 12z tomorrow will be the tell-tale run. This may just be a blip and the most we'll get is flurries.

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