superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0135Z FRI FEB 15 2013 THE 00Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME. OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE FOR NAM INGEST INCLUDED 14 ALASKAN...31 CANADIAN...70 CONUS...1 CARIBBEAN...AND 10 MEXICAN STATIONS. A NOAA G-IV WINTER STORM RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT EN ROUTE BETWEEN ANCHORAGE AND HONOLULU HAS SO FAR YIELDED 6 DROPSONDES AND 3 FLIGHT LEVEL REPORTS. 00Z NAM RAOB RECAP... 72645/GRB - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...10142 76654/MZL - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...10142 78970/POS - 10159 72776/TFX - SHORT TO 507 MB 91334/TKK - SHORT TO 825 MB 91348/PNI - PURGED TEMPS/MOISTURE 870-855 MB...WET BULB EFFECT 91376/MAJ - PURGED TEMPS 493-372 MB...TOO COLD/NON-METEOROLOGICAL LAPSE RATES HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP TFX is Great Falls, MT. That could matter some, I'd think, although I don't know how much a single missing location can change things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The question will be, does the GFS take this even a step further? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nice swath of .1 plus over eastern NC, but BL issues emerge. Hard pressed to find an event with RN as the p type given thickness, but yes, 2m and wt bulb would argue against... 36 maybe some graupel/ip, after 42, below, would be all SN based on the plots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 00Z just started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 TFX is Great Falls, MT. That could matter some, I'd think, although I don't know how much a single missing location can change things. Thet have been sending My question is what are they seeing that we are not? They have been sending planes in for the past 2 days this is not normal for an little system with out much moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 @27 there is more separation in the streams it might be hair better oriented. Also the s/w in Tx is a tad bit sw of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 @33 moisture breaking out over LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This could get interesting...weak low @36 going through AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Through 24, global is a little deeper, not much, grasping at straws... Edit: 33, energy looks more consolidated over southern AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 @39 weak low making it's way to the FL panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looks much closer to neutral tilt at hr 33 to me. EDIT: Holy crap, it's negative at hr 42!!!!!!!!! The energy looks stronger, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 @42 light precip into southern GA...SC and parts of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 @45 very light precip over most of NC and almost all of SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Wow, much closer, probably fools gold though, probably be different at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 700 rh MUCH more impressive at 42 hours than at 48 hours on 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 @48 heavier precip near RDU...this run isn't going to get the job done but it's a big step compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 42, double barrel look off the EC, hoping the local slp min off ILM will be primary, scattered precip breaking out over much of the SE, 850 weenie line in full retreat over N FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Just east of RDU might eek out .25 on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Big improvement in the 700 mb RH field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 CLT is probably .10 if I'm lucky...CAE might be like .20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Wow -- huge QPF increase over prior run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I mean comparing hr42 on the 00z vs hr 48 on the 18z...a lot more moisture, closer surface low....I like it. Can't wait to see the ensemble and ensemble members... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Best run by far of anything the GFS has shown in the last few days -- arc of .25 QPF from Gaffney down through Columbia and then up into Eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Wow, even throwing decent QPF back here in the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Little SN event going on ENC between 45 and 51, would appear the seasonal avg, maybe more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Wow -- huge QPF increase over prior run. Yeah, it seems to go negative tilt further west on this run. At hour 42: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Interesting...just south of CLT to CAE gets around .25...then east of CLT up to RDU gets around .25 with just east of RDU getting .50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Business is definitely picking up with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GFS clown maps show widespread 2+ inches for that swath I mentioned -- including GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 0.10"+ for the vast majority of NC/SC. NE NC gets pummeled. Ratios might be fun, especially in the western half of the state, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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