beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Definitely tilting better at 36 and seems more consolidated -- but is it enough to matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 @36 neutral tilt... precip breaking out in LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looks like it's going negative @36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looking like it wants to turn right more this run, hard to tell as it could just be a couple hours quicker, but we took a hit with energy thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Not sure if that vort that was over southern IN at 18z 42 hr will make a difference with anything as it has it over close to western most KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Some decent 700mb RH showing up over southern Alabama at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looking like it wants to turn right more this run, hard to tell as it could just be a couple hours quicker, but we took a hit with energy thats for sure. Looks to me like the problem was that it didn't really phase with that southern energy in time...it had kind of already died out by the time it phased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Definitely tilting better at 36 and seems more consolidated -- but is it enough to matter? Still pos at 36, 528m to 570m axis, within that, 540 to 552 is already right of center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yea surface has precip breaking out over Louisiana and Alabama at 36 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Based on the H5 so far, this run should have better moisture return of the ATL compared to 18z. Should be a wetter run in general. Seems a little quicker, but even still, much improved orientation at 39, not going to turn the larger axis n time, but within that, it looks a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Well @42 this run actually has some light precip in southern GA...that's an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Def better presentation of the surface at 39 with precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 39h -- tilted just a touch better, but doesn't look like a seismic shift. Some light precip over southern Ga. that wasn't there at 18z. It's trying, but feels like a team that was down by 4 TD's cutting it to 1 TD as time runs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 At 45 definitely going negative. Look at surface. BIG improvement... At 48 uh oh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Wetter @48 but not sure it's that much wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 "Better" not "negative." (compared to 18z) Still pos at 36, 528m to 570m axis, within that, 540 to 552 is already right of center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Evidence of a slp developing off the NC coast rather than further to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nice swath of .1 plus over eastern NC, but BL issues emerge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Burger .25 area keeps creeping closer and closer to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 @51 nice low popping off the coast...not making a huge difference but a good step. I might actually stay up for the GFS tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 So as the day goes on the system has slowed possibly some is more west and phased. Maybe not in time but it's getting closer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 2m temps are awful, verbatim, but E NC is certainly getting some solid QPF and that surface low is finally there. Good improvements from the NAM. Definitely goes neutral tilt earlier than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Not sure if this NAM run is depressing or positive. That low really gets cranking just when it's too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Painful to see the storm explode at 57 as it is way east of here so so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 >.25 qpf as far west as RDU. This was a great improvement. Hopefully the next couple of runs will push qpf farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Well, the Mid-Atlantic/NE get nothing from this run. This is an impressive storm for the fishes, though. If the OBX could overcome P-type issues, they could get hit hard. My h5 maps for the High-Res NAM hasn't caught up yet, but S. GA and the FL Panhandle are getting some decent precip at hr 42 ... much heavier than the regular NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 >.25 qpf as far west as RDU. This was a great improvement. Hopefully the next couple of runs will push qpf farther west. Hopefully, our .25 will not all fall in the liquid form.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Not sure if this NAM run is depressing or positive. That low really gets cranking just when it's too late. All those wasted flakes melting on contact out in the big pond. What a slap in the face. Can't even watch this one on a webcam vicariously, which seems to be the only way we get to view snow anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Hi-Res NAM is actually not bad for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0135Z FRI FEB 15 2013THE 00Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME.OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE FOR NAM INGEST INCLUDED 14 ALASKAN...31CANADIAN...70 CONUS...1 CARIBBEAN...AND 10 MEXICAN STATIONS. ANOAA G-IV WINTER STORM RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT EN ROUTE BETWEENANCHORAGE AND HONOLULU HAS SO FAR YIELDED 6 DROPSONDES AND 3FLIGHT LEVEL REPORTS.00Z NAM RAOB RECAP...72645/GRB - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...1014276654/MZL - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...1014278970/POS - 1015972776/TFX - SHORT TO 507 MB91334/TKK - SHORT TO 825 MB91348/PNI - PURGED TEMPS/MOISTURE 870-855 MB...WET BULB EFFECT91376/MAJ - PURGED TEMPS 493-372 MB...TOO COLD/NON-METEOROLOGICAL LAPSE RATESHANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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