WidreMann told us it was gonna snow thread

[Cold Rain]

Thanks for the responses about temps, guys. It seemed to me that surface temps would be in the low 40s, which I've seen corroborated by local news outlets. Just wanted to get thoughts here too. Anywho, trends today have looked better for precip, so at least that's good.

[Pilotwx]

 Can you imagine what would happen if the southern side slows and the northern side speeds up?! Boom goes the dynamite!

 

 

Here's a 300 mb map, look at the southern stream and the northern stream. 

 

[WeatherNC]

A trough going negative tilt off the GA/SC Coast is inconsequential to us at that point, it can tilt extreme hard right at that stage and have 0 impacts to sensible wx south of 40N.  For those that still have a seat at the table, remind you it is kinda a crappy pot, we need a more favorable orientation along the northern gulf coast, MS/AL, FL panhandle.  Unsure if less positive is a meteorological term, but that is basically what it boils down to, we need a better consolidation of the energy contained at the base, compared to a nam graphic posted above, where you see a piece of energy in the northern gulf, kinda lagging by a few clicks, holding the axis back to the sw.  More favorable orientation and you will see increased precip return into the Carolina's, less, then the mechanism to draw the moisture back is weakened.  Regarding boundary layer temps, lets not forget how hard it can be to scrub that last 1k', seen many a WSW verify mid 30's and RN, because the warmer air at the surface did not scour out in time.

 

+48hr image here, Dracula posted it above also, note the piece hanging back, and how it holds the axis left. (54hrs, obvious a few grid scale parameterization issues, lots of feedback over the eastern half Carolinas)

 

 

@ NRaleigh - I moved your post to the pattern disco thread

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Probably flurries/snow showers at most. Very likely nothing measurable. Could easily be no flakes at all. Lows that first form off the SE coast virtually never give Atl anything due to being too dry. We need a GOM low, which has hardly been indicated on any model.

Why can't we ever get a low to form in the Gulf ? Is it just me or does it seem like more lows form off the Atlantic coast than the Gulf Coast ?

[burgertime]

A trough going negative tilt off the GA/SC Coast is inconsequential to us at that point, it can tilt extreme hard right at that stage and have 0 impacts to sensible wx south of 40N.  For those that still have a seat at the table, remind you it is kinda a crappy pot, we need a more favorable orientation along the northern gulf coast, MS/AL, FL panhandle.  Unsure if less positive is a meteorological term, but that is basically what it boils down to, we need a better consolidation of the energy contained at the base, compared to a nam graphic posted above, where you see a piece of energy in the northern gulf, kinda lagging by a few clicks, holding the axis back to the sw.  More favorable orientation and you will see increased precip return into the Carolina's, less, then the mechanism to draw the moisture back is weakened.  Regarding boundary layer temps, lets not forget how hard it can be to scrub that last 1k', seen many a WSW verify mid 30's and RN, because the warmer air at the surface did not scour out in time.

 

+48hr image here, Dracula posted it above also, note the piece hanging back, and how it holds the axis left. (54hrs, obvious a few grid scale parameterization issues, lots of feedback over the eastern half Carolinas)

 

 

 

@ NRaleigh - I moved your post to the pattern disco thread

 

I'm with you. To be honest I'm just holding out hope I can get a rouge flizzard. It's been so long since I've actually seen all snow fall from the sky. I'm that desperate...I could always go to the mountains but I want to see it at home.

[DaculaWeather]

Can you say clueless? Look at that spread.

 

 

 

[WeatherNC]

I'm with you. To be honest I'm just holding out hope I can get a rouge flizzard. It's been so long since I've actually seen all snow fall from the sky. I'm that desperate...I could always go to the mountains but I want to see it at home.

 

Just looked at the Canadian via the RGEM ptype loop, correct me if I am wrong, but QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) looks 100% ana frontal, enhanced from the low developing offshore, but not in direct relation to.  Kinda concerned about a couple tenths of -RN saturday night.  Granted the RGEM kinda crashed the RN/SN line to all SN over the north central piedmont at 48, after that the coarser res of the op kicked in.

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[GaWx]

Why can't we ever get a low to form in the Gulf ? Is it just me or does it seem like more lows form off the Atlantic coast than the Gulf Coast ?

 

 I'm guessing that not having El Nino is somewhat reducing the chances for the formation of Miller A's, perhaps at the expense of those forming off of the Atlantic. Also, maybe having the strong -PDO is also having the same effect? A lack of a -NAO may also be hurting??? Let's face it, most lows that first form in the Atlantic pretty much suck for most in the SE US who are not in the E Carolinas, in SE GA, in NE FL, or in the mountains as regards sig. wintry precip. chances. There's not much hope for Atlanta with the dry flow that comes around from the north and NW over the mountains. History certainly confirms this time and time again. Notice that once a GOM Miller A low reaches around Jax or Savannah, the bulk of the precip. for Atlanta is often over for the same reason. When these lows explode off of the SE coast, they still don't do much good for many who are well away from the Atlantic,

[Shawn]

Interesting:
 

WRF-ARW FORECASTS 	00:0-46:0-59 	01:02:32        	START DELAYED 	1-2 HOURS LATE
WRF-NMM FORECASTS 	00:0-46:0-59 	01:09:29        	START DELAYED 	1-2 HOURS LATE


maybe for new data?

[Tacoma]

Why can't we ever get a low to form in the Gulf ? Is it just me or does it seem like more lows form off the Atlantic coast than the Gulf Coast ?

just my thinking, why is it we can't get a low to form in the gulf of mexico.  seems like they use to form quite often, but I haven't seen any of late.

[Shawn]

15Z SREF, 18z NAM, 18z GFS comparison (pretty similar):

 

[burrel2]

SREF members are all over the place with precip amounts. A good many of them give someone in the southeast a decent snow.  North central NC does well on  a few and Middle/eastern SC does well on some as well.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PCNTOTSE_15z/srefloop.html

[burgertime]

Just looked at the Canadian via the RGEM ptype loop, correct me if I am wrong, but QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) looks 100% ana frontal, enhanced from the low developing offshore, but not in direct relation to.  Kinda concerned about a couple tenths of -RN saturday night.  Granted the RGEM kinda crashed the RN/SN line to all SN over the north central piedmont at 48, after that the coarser res of the op kicked in.

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

 

It did look that way and for my back yard you have to worry about it getting over the mountains and scattering then reforming. Totally wouldn't be shocked if the screws get put to me even on the flurry front. 

[superjames1992]

Some of those SREF members look downright tasty.........

 

Anyways, the 0z NAM fires up soon.  Let's hope the new recon data along with RAOB data works in our favor.

[WeatherNC]

I need a good 0z NAM run, 0.5" splice, centered within about 50 miles of here, just as the fail boat is departing OTS.

 

 

credit Dave on mybook

[Buddy1987]

Nam has initialized!

[Buddy1987]

Nothing really jumping out at 15 to me of significance looks similar to 18z thus far

[Bevo]

 I'm guessing that not having El Nino is somewhat reducing the chances for the formation of Miller A's, perhaps at the expense of those forming off of the Atlantic. Also, maybe having the strong -PDO is also having the same effect? A lack of a -NAO may also be hurting??? Let's face it, most lows that first form in the Atlantic pretty much suck for most in the SE US who are not in the E Carolinas, in SE GA, in NE FL, or in the mountains as regards sig. wintry precip. chances. There's not much hope for Atlanta with the dry flow that comes around from the north and NW over the mountains. History certainly confirms this time and time again. Notice that once a GOM Miller A low reaches around Jax or Savannah, the bulk of the precip. for Atlanta is often over for the same reason. When these lows explode off of the SE coast, they still don't do much good for many who are well away from the Atlantic,

 

Agreed Larry - thanks in most part to Mr. Pacific.  

 

just my thinking, why is it we can't get a low to form in the gulf of mexico.  seems like they use to form quite often, but I haven't seen any of late.

 

The PAC plus Larry's ENSO suggestion are probably the best answers.

[burgertime]

Our energy looks further west @21 to me. 

[Buddy1987]

I concur with Burger hopefully it'll make a difference in the coming runs

[Buddy1987]

Troughing looks more sharp at 24? Vort in the southwest is southwest of its 18z position comparing it at 30

[burgertime]

@27 it looks like it's phasing a little earlier. Hard to tell if it will make any real diff. 

[Buddy1987]

What's up with that little vort at 27 in northern Indiana?

[WeSuck]

Energy Further southwest at 27

[burgertime]

Looks like I was wrong, @30 it's not really phased and is pretty much two different pieces. 

[WeSuck]

Energy being held western TX at 30

[Buddy1987]

The vort is still more to the SW of it 18z position in northernmost Mexico on this run don't know if that'll mean anything.

[WeatherNC]

@ 30, slightly better orientation over the Arkalatex compared to 18z, energy a little further west over extreme western TX, stronger too, may negate the improvement in axis.

 

Improvement at 33, but energy over NE OK is weaker, less interaction between the two parcels, unsure about axis, much better, but energy contained at the base may negate the improvement as t is stepped.

[Jon]

possibly it's because of that energy over mexico? It's not nearly pronounced on the 18z, maybe its pulling the energy away from our storm, in a sense...otherwise why would it separate like that?

[burgertime]

Looks more neutral @33