DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I get administrative emails through the EMWIN network and I'll be able to tell you when the recon data will be ingested and for what model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlweatherman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I get administrative emails through the EMWIN network and I'll be able to tell you when the recon data will be ingested and for what model run. Do you think ATL is still in the game to get some snow out of this possible storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I think it should be noted that this data ingest is more than likely being done because of the risk of a big storm blowing up off the NE coast. It probably has nothing to do with light snow chances in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Probably so, and if I hadn't seen the GOM flight, I would whole-heartily agree. I'm beginning to wonder if there may be more to it though... ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I think it should be noted that this data ingest is more than likely being done because of the risk of a big storm blowing up off the NE coast. It probably has nothing to do with light snow chances in the SE. perhaps...but the models are indicating a series of LPs riding up out of the GOM/off the SE coast which will eventually interact with our inbound trough and potent mid-level energy on Saturday. A correct sampling of the GOM/SE offshore waters may reveal something more sinister for the SE/lower mid-atlantic. (not saying it's going to happen, but it's not out of the realm of possibility either.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 "Kermit" is almost over Gainesville FL. Might be headed home to Tampa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 "Kermit" is almost over Gainesville FL. What's our 1st TS name? Only reason he'd be flying here (sarcasm). Actually, it is quite chilly and damp, and low and behold, we actually do get our "best" winter precip down here right about this time of year. Probably not this year all things considered, but while waiting for my ISP to get here and do an upgrade, why not wish ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 @42 GFS is identical to the 12z GFS maybe a hair stronger with the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 @42 GFS is identical to the 12z GFS maybe a hair stronger with the energy. The trough looks sharper too at hr 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This is WCIV's model run for 9pm Saturday that they posted about 20 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Again, slightly better upper level features, but doesn't translate to sensible weather. The truth is, these light QPF amounts are probably within the margin of error of modeling right now. One run it's NC getting a dusting, then this run it's S.C. Probably will end up nowcasting flurry hallucinations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18z GFS recommends spending Saturday night in Florence, SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18z GFS recommends spending Saturday night in Florence, SC. lol yep...the goofy has arrived. Hopefully 00z doesn't lead to more confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 We are starting to get into that time frame when the RAP becomes useful. I was looking over the 21z RAP and I noticed that the shortwave appears to be stronger at hr 18 on the 21z RAP as compared to hr 21 on the 18z GFS. 18z GFS, hr 21 21z RAP, hr 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm assuming this quote from earlier still holds somewhat true... "AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY LYING WITH THE NON-ECMWF RELATED GUIDANCE, THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND 00Z ECMWF ARE BEINGGIVEN MINIMAL WEIGHT. THE PREFERENCE REMAINS A 12Z UKMET/12ZCANADIAN/12Z GFS COMPROMISE" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18z GFS recommends spending Saturday night in Florence, SC. Pedro sez .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 So if we do get a little precip Saturday afternoon or evening, are boundary layer temps going to be an issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Looking at the hi-rez NAM... I'm kinda getting excited about this one. There is SO much 500 mb vorticity here, I don't know that I've seen this much all winter. Look at the stream from the Pacific merging with the vort dropping south from the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 So if we do get a little precip Saturday afternoon or evening, are boundary layer temps going to be an issue? Well, NOAA has 30% Rain/Snow for Sat/Sat Night here in CAE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 At 54 and once it gets to the coast, it goes negative tilt You can loop all here http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_area.php?model=nam-hires&cycle=18&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 At 54 and once it gets to the coast, it goes negative tilt You can loop all here http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_area.php?model=nam-hires&cycle=18&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht Hoping that neg tilt can happen on the other side of Florida. Though odds are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 So if we do get a little precip Saturday afternoon or evening, are boundary layer temps going to be an issue? GFS would indicate so, at-least for us east of 95, have not checked RDU yet (just checked, ~40F 2m for the duration, wetbulb looks about the same) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Those around the Raleigh area you might get to relive your Jan 2000 storm. While us back to the west in the foothills will get to watch the news and see it snowing!! The models are showing the possibility of this being a good snow storm for Eastern NC, To the west our usual dry slot, skipped, avoided, and watching in envy looks to be the case according to most models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18Z GFS Ensemble Mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Those around the Raleigh area you might get to relive your Jan 2000 storm. While us back to the west in the foothills will get to watch the news and see it snowing!! The models are showing the possibility of this being a good snow storm for Eastern NC, To the west our usual dry slot, skipped, avoided, and watching in envy looks to be the case according to most models. What?????? Jan 2000 storm??? I wish but would bet the house we see nothing more than a flurry. Hope you are right, what makes you think so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 MHX and RAH are both throwing around the RN word, highs on Saturday should get well into the 40's before CAA kicks in late in the day, evening for us further east. Thickness plots would indicate a SN profile on a line extending from Elizabeth City to Lumberton, and all points west, 7pm Saturday, rn mixed with SN to the coast. A closer inspection of actual ground temps and wetbulbs, pushes that time back to at-least midnight, with 2m's in the upper 30's lows 40's, wetbulb line even at 1am struggles to penetrate eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Those around the Raleigh area you might get to relive your Jan 2000 storm. No way. I was at the house of this girl I had known for about 2 weeks in western Wake County. Got 23" and was stuck for 2 days. We did not last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Do you think ATL is still in the game to get some snow out of this possible storm? Probably flurries/snow showers at most. Very likely nothing measurable. Could easily be no flakes at all. Lows that first form off the SE coast virtually never give Atl anything due to being too dry. We need a GOM low, which has hardly been indicated on any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Here's a 300 mb map, look at the southern stream and the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Daculaweather has posted some hi-res Nam maps and you can see all the energy around the system and we have see an more westward movement as the day has went on, on the east coast. It also looks like when it gets to the base of the trough that it captures more energy and slows enough and rounds the base earlier to come more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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