burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Trough is sharper, but axis is back further east. So much for a west trend. I guess that will be the million dollar question. Doe the NAM lead the way? To me the NAM fell to the GFS for sure. With more ingest data tonight models should be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yep. NAM is definitely wetter and is basically taking a step towards the 12z GFS rather than the super dry 12z NAM. Baby steps...but a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm pretty pumped up right now sick as a dog but I have a real good feeling about this. Hey I got great luck with Texas Hold 'Em so I'm gonna go all in with this one and hopefully that'll get everyone to where we need to be. GFS is gonna pull through for us watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 As more data is ingested the models have trended wetter like burger said tonight's runs will be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Tilt was a little better on this run, but trough axis was a bit east. Not really that much difference. We're getting too close for swings big enough to make a difference for anybody west of CLT, imo. I guess that will be the million dollar question. Doe the NAM lead the way? To me the NAM fell to the GFS for sure. With more ingest data tonight models should be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If you want to have some fun look at the Hi-Res composite radar for our area...it will get your mouth watering. So close and yet so far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 dang...NAM gives down east (east of I-95 to OBX) kin folk a nice blanket of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Tilt was a little better on this run, but trough axis was a bit east. Not really that much difference. We're getting too close for swings big enough to make a difference for anybody west of CLT, imo. Yea I have a hard time buying we would get anything over an inch...but I could see a trend to come in to get us just around an inch. Check out the PM I sent you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Good luck to you eastern peeps! Looks like another tuff draw for AVL....the theme of the last 2 winters. The 18Z sez that the fruit & vegetable growers in FL are going to have some anxious times over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This looks to be a "down east" snow for NC....I think a few people are going to be surprised come Sat. evening. A heavy dusting alert might be issued for central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Dang, the NAM looks like an improvement. Everything looks to be trending in the right direction, sans the Euro. Now, my fear is being fringed with flurries while Eastern NC gets a decent hit. Such is life. You win some; you lose some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This looks to be a "down east" snow for NC....I think a few people are going to be surprised come Sat. evening. A heavy dusting alert might be issued for central NC So down east gets the blanket of snow and we get the sheet? My yard needs a good dusting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Hi-Res NAM says congrats southern GA? Of course, I wouldn't be surprised if BL temps would be problematic. Where are you at, Deltadog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Actually, it wouldn't take much of a shift east for a little better hit in central NC....I just don't see it happening, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If you want to have some fun look at the Hi-Res composite radar for our area...it will get your mouth watering. So close and yet so far away. I just took a look at this and it just goes to show how close we are to something fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 high res nam is absolutely orgasmic for the sc coast. nice radar returns @51hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The Hi-Res NAM SFC maps are juicer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Actually, it wouldn't take much of a shift east for a little better hit in central NC.... I only read the first part of your statement! :-) This is probably it, not buying DT's ice storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 IF surface temperatures are compliant, coastal SC is hit pretty hard by the 18z High-Res NAM. Good snowfalls for Charleston, Myrtle Beach, and maybe even Savannah, GA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Today is awesome. I'm reaaaaaly nervous about the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 IF surface temperatures are compliant, coastal SC is hit pretty hard by the 18z High-Res NAM. Good snowfalls for Charleston, Myrtle Beach, and maybe even Savannah, GA? That would be a fitting end to a miserable two years, the beaches getting more snow than central NC, again. Although, great someone is getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This looks to be a "down east" snow for NC....I think a few people are going to be surprised come Sat. evening. A heavy dusting alert might be issued for central NC Trying to keep hope in check we didnt really do to well snow wise in the last event in mid Jan it was a quick dusting at best then all ice and the ground here hasnt seen a inch of snow in 2 years so maybe this will continue to trend to the good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Trying to keep hope in check we didnt really do to well snow wise in the last event in mid Jan it was a quick dusting at best then all ice and the ground here hasnt seen a inch of snow in 2 years so maybe this will continue to trend to the good for us. You did better than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The trend today has been good. And there is time for it to trend even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 "Kermit" is currently running the Georgia coast: As of the last observation at 20:57:00Z, the plane's...Direction of Travel: S (180°)Location: 23 miles (36 km) to the SSE (153°) from Brunswick, GA, USA. There is also an Air Force WC-130J over the GOM right now As of the last dropsonde at 18:59Z, the plane's... Location: 202 miles (325 km) to the S (173°) from Beaumont, TX, USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 "Kermit" is currently running the Georgia coast: As of the last observation at 20:57:00Z, the plane's... Direction of Travel: S (180°) Location: 23 miles (36 km) to the SSE (153°) from Brunswick, GA, USA. There is also an Air Force WC-130J over the GOM right now As of the last dropsonde at 18:59Z, the plane's...Location: 202 miles (325 km) to the S (173°) from Beaumont, TX, USA. Can someone explain what this means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Can someone explain what this means? Basically just the name of the plane. It's getting real time data now to put into the 00z suite of model runs tonight. It's probably doing recon data along the east coast to ingest in case this thing goes up the coast and bombs. It's pulling data from the west coast probably to see if it will phase early to give it the chance to go up the coast to bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Do they do these recon missions for every piece of energy,or only when they think there is a chance of a big storm forming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What this means is the NHC has sent two planes on a Winter Recon flight to sample the upper atmosphere. "Kermit", an Orion P3, started up in the northeast and is now along the Georgia coast, obviously gathering east coast data. The other plane, an Air Force hurricane hunter, a WC-130J, is running the GOM for upper air readings there. This data will be feed into the next available model run for a much better air sample than they would otherwise have. It's not often you see multiple flights up at the same time unless you have the potential for a big storm, especially in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Thanks! In 'Cane season I can read Kermit pretty well, but in mid-Feb, recon data makes no sense to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.