BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Bufkit went nuts tonight. Almost everywhere I looked had 18:1 or higher snow ratios. Sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm curious. Is there any semblance of a GOM sfc low from members P08 and P10? Why is the precip. so sig. for these two members? My opinion, but this all comes down to how strong / how consolidated / how far south the northern stream 500mb vort max and associated wave digs, with the strength / placement of the western ridge being the key. Those 2 members that show the best storms have the 500mb wave digging the farthest south, and closing off, producing dynamically driven snow - http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_18z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GFS Forecast products around 15 min away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Good luck with the 00z runs I won't be around for PBP. I do think the 84 hour NAM gives some hope as well it looked like at 5h there would be room to dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Dr. No will give his diagnosis later this evening and I am afraid it might be terminal. Whatever it shows with this "storm" I think the patient dies after this (patient being winter) This isn't quite the pattern of last year, so I wouldnt' call it over just yet. Even if this storm goes off the coast, theres a lot going on, and a few more systems will amplify. We will probably turn very, very warm again, but in March, turn severely cold, and maybe enough amplification to have a snowstorm somewhere. Who knows where that would be though. This thread is nothing short of an early April Fools Day joke. This system will trend drier and warmer like it always does. It may trend drier (NAM looks good though---and has beat GFS and ECMWF 3, maybe 4 times this season already) at 84 hours. But it sure won't trend warmer. All models have the coldest thickness of Winter coming right across the heart of the Southeast. It's about time. Most areas of BHM to ATL probably won't get out of the 30's on Saturday with full sun. If there is any snow cover at all, Sunday morning lows will be lower teens, maybe even lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Western ridge is a tick taller at hr72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 No doubt a slightly better western ridge thru 105, we'll see where it goes. Light snow / flurries breaking out in N Louisiana and SE of Dallas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 00z GFS just kills it compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looks drier thru 99hr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This isn't quite the pattern of last year, so I wouldnt' call it over just yet. Even if this storm goes off the coast, theres a lot going on, and a few more systems will amplify. We will probably turn very, very warm again, but in March, turn severely cold, and maybe enough amplification to have a snowstorm somewhere. Who knows where that would be though. It may trend drier (NAM looks good though---and has beat GFS and ECMWF 3, maybe 4 times this season already) at 84 hours. But it sure won't trend warmer. All models have the coldest thickness of Winter coming right across the heart of the Southeast. It's about time. Most areas of BHM to ATL probably won't get out of the 30's on Saturday with full sun. If there is any snow cover at all, Sunday morning lows will be lower teens, maybe even lower. It's about time we had some decent cold. Atlanta's coldest high temp this winter has been 43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Totally different at 500 looks like it will be an ugly run for snow lovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Snow from 114-120 in NC...very weak low off the coast, 1012mb 1"-2" throughout NC, majority on the low end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This run isn't going to get it done, not enough digging -- everything too far north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Out of nowhere my house scratches out a couple inches from 108-114. I have no idea where that precip came from looking at previous frames. edit: And a nice batch of precip the next 6 hours. Looks like 4"+ for some locations in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Vort max is weaker...but decent snow breaking out Columbia, SC to Florence...and most of NC (except the mtns of all things) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 swing and a miss!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Threat remains...all you can say at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 With the cold air, this would be a solid 2-4" of snow across central and western NC. That's taken per batum, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 swing and a miss!!!! For Macon, probably so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 And then a last-minute flare up for Elizabeth City and Norfolk, of course. It wouldn't be a suppressed storm without those areas picking up twice what the piedmont gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Surprised it spit out as much QPF as it did -- 5h map was pretty ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Energy at the base of the trough was weaker on the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not a bad run for North Carolina. Perhaps a 2-4" event across a large portion of the state. 1-2" in parts of SC, but the precip stops at the SC/GA line. The reality is that the GFS has shown accumulating snowfall across much of NC for the last three runs now, so it is time to take this threat seriously here, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not a bad run for North Carolina. Perhaps a 2-4" event across a large portion of the state. 1-2" in parts of SC, but the precip stops at the SC/GA line. Not to sound bad, but this is believable. Our poor north Georgia friends are very familiar with this scenario. I'm actually a little surprised that snow map is as low as it is. With those 850 temps I would expect all snow and decent ratios. Guess we need to see some soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Its one run where the shortwave barely just misses timing is just off and its only Tuesday morning. Still feel good about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC Snow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looks like NE NC might see some of the white stuff with this run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 And then a last-minute flare up for Elizabeth City and Norfolk, of course. It wouldn't be a suppressed storm without those areas picking up twice what the piedmont gets. SE VA NE NC do well this run. The 500 mb low takes a nice track for us but doesn't dig enough like 18z. Regardless, a good run. All we need is a bit more digging for more poeple to get in on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not to sound bad, but this is believable. Our poor north Georgia friends are very familiar with this scenario. Correct. It seems the further southwest you go from NC to SC to GA you dry up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looks like NE NC might see some of the white stuff with this run! So far, you've already seen more than most of the rest of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 .40 qpf all snow in immediate triad this run. I prefer 18z. Plenty more runs to get juiced up qpf wise covering a larger area or on the other hand get left at the altar again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.