DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 'Kermit" is getting around today, off the coast of Virginia right now: As of the last observation at 18:47:00Z, the plane's...Direction of Travel: W (270°)Location: 88 miles (141 km) to the SSE (148°) from Ocean City, MD, USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Not sure how well you can see this... Unless the pilot was just having fun, he's taking a strange zig-zag path toward Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 VERY interesting.... "Kermit" is now over North Carolina As of the last observation at 19:17:00Z, the plane's...Direction of Travel: SSW (202°)Location: 32 miles (52 km) to the SSW (210°) from Norfolk, VA, USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 DEEP CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST...PREFERENCE: TOWARDS A 12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET/12Z GFS COMPROMISEWITH LOW CONFIDENCETHE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA ISEXPECTED TO DROP IN LATITUDE WITH TIME, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ADEVELOPING DEEP CYCLONE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO LOSE SOMELATITUDE IN TANDEM, WITH ENERGY COMING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OFTHE UPSTREAM RIDGE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN WITH TIME. THEGUIDANCE AGREES ON THESE IDEAS, BUT DETAIL ISSUES RIDDLE THEGUIDANCE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOW THEWEAK OUTLIERS WITH THE VORTEX NEAR THE NORTHEAST/ATLANTIC CANADA,RATHER THAN SHIFTING THEIR UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGYMOVING UP THE EAST COAST, WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WEAKER AND MORESTRUNG OUT CYCLONE FARTHER OUT TO SEA, WITH LESS PRECIPITATIONPOTENTIAL ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND THAN THEOTHER GUIDANCE. WITH TRENDS IN THE CANADIAN SWINGING TOWARDS ASTRONGER SOLUTION (AS ADVERTISED BY THE UKMET FOR OVER A DAY NOW),AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY LYING WITH THE NON-ECMWF RELATEDGUIDANCE, THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND 00Z ECMWF ARE BEINGGIVEN MINIMAL WEIGHT. THE PREFERENCE REMAINS A 12Z UKMET/12ZCANADIAN/12Z GFS COMPROMISE, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH LOWCONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE STREAM INTERACTION/PHASING INVOLVEDWITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH TENDS TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST INITSELF, AND SINCE THEIR SOLUTION OCCASIONALLY BREACHES THE 00ZGLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK (TOTHE WEST). THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN MARKED AS A CANDIDATE FORATLANTIC TARGETED OBSERVATIONS/SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHERRECONNAISSANCE. SEE OUR QPF AND WINTER WEATHERPRODUCTS/DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE PRECIPITATIONPOTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 DEEP CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST... PREFERENCE: TOWARDS A 12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET/12Z GFS COMPROMISE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO DROP IN LATITUDE WITH TIME, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A DEVELOPING DEEP CYCLONE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO LOSE SOME LATITUDE IN TANDEM, WITH ENERGY COMING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN WITH TIME. THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON THESE IDEAS, BUT DETAIL ISSUES RIDDLE THE GUIDANCE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOW THE WEAK OUTLIERS WITH THE VORTEX NEAR THE NORTHEAST/ATLANTIC CANADA, RATHER THAN SHIFTING THEIR UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING UP THE EAST COAST, WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WEAKER AND MORE STRUNG OUT CYCLONE FARTHER OUT TO SEA, WITH LESS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. WITH TRENDS IN THE CANADIAN SWINGING TOWARDS A STRONGER SOLUTION (AS ADVERTISED BY THE UKMET FOR OVER A DAY NOW), AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY LYING WITH THE NON-ECMWF RELATED GUIDANCE, THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND 00Z ECMWF ARE BEING GIVEN MINIMAL WEIGHT. THE PREFERENCE REMAINS A 12Z UKMET/12Z CANADIAN/12Z GFS COMPROMISE, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE STREAM INTERACTION/PHASING INVOLVED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH TENDS TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN ITSELF, AND SINCE THEIR SOLUTION OCCASIONALLY BREACHES THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK (TO THE WEST). THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN MARKED AS A CANDIDATE FOR ATLANTIC TARGETED OBSERVATIONS/SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE. SEE OUR QPF AND WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS/DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM. So basically they know about as much as we do. This is how imagine they feel when someone says, "so what do you think this one does?". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 At least they are going with ones that show something instead of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 if this storm actually produces something, it will be a win for the UKMET and the NOGAPS. Who would guess that those two could be a winning combo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 So basically they know about as much as we do. This is how imagine they feel when someone says, "so what do you think this one does?". LMAO!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NAM is rolling it might be a hair west with our northern energy @27. Our energy out west was also a tad stronger earlier on but looks about the same compared to the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yea looks like its a touch south of its position comparing it to 30hr 12z Nam (speaking of the energy that is coming out of Montana area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 "Kermit" over SC, getting ready to cross into Georgia As of the last observation at 19:57:00Z, the plane's...Direction of Travel: SSW (203°)Location: 33 miles (52 km) between the N and NNE (11°) from Myrtle Beach, SC, USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Comparing Nam at 27 looks a little bit more to the sw of the GFS 12z at 33 hr timeframe. Nam has energy entering northern CO where GFS had it in southern South Dakota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18z NAM is pretty similar to the 12z GFS on the 5h maps. Out to 33 and it looks like the energy is beginning to phase. Energy is pretty weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yea GFS definitely was more strong at the same timeframe with the energy dropping down. Let's see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18z NAM and 12z GFS are practically identical at 5h. The question is can the NAM go negative in time...it's still positively tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm confused with the 5h setup at 33 Burger 18z has 2 areas of vorticities showing up around the plains area. Which one are we looking for to take over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 36 hours on 18z NAM looks pretty different from the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm confused with the 5h setup at 33 Burger 18z has 2 areas of vorticities showing up around the plains area. Which one are we looking for to take over? I only see one over the plains and then there is another in TX, we want both of these to phase. @39 it's phased but still positively tilted now it more resembles the 12z NAM to me. We'll see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I only see one over the plains and then there is another in TX, we want both of these to phase. @39 it's phased but still positively tilted now it more resembles the 12z NAM to me. We'll see where it goes. Well at 36 it's gone but at 33 it had one in NE One in SW KS and then obviously the one over the southwest U.S. o well lol moving on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Correct me if I'm wrong, the problem I see with the NAM which is out to 42 now is that the bulk of the energy is around STL where GFS had it much further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Hi-Res NAM looks better for portions of NC...actually has a small scale flizzard over CLT and even ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NAM just looks to me like it is too neutral to positively tilted it ends up not being far off from the GFS with the placement of the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NCEP slow been stuck at 39 forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NCEP slow been stuck at 39 forever Use instantweathermaps.com, updated very fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Here we go @54 precip breaking out over southeastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NAM just looks to me like it is too neutral to positively tilted it ends up not being far off from the GFS with the placement of the energy. I was just about to say the same thing. NAM is to positively tilted to make the turn in time. We would have a nice storm if it would just make that turn faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Trough is sharper, but axis is back further east. So much for a west trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 nam is wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Definite step in the right direction for the NAM...this one is going to give light snow to the eastern 1/3 of NC cutoff is just east of CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Coasts of nc/sc look to get some snow showers, and the .1" precip isnt that far off the coast, a few more trends and we will be looking at a nice vent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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