burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Almost all of S.C. at 2.5-5 mm. Hard to tell what temp profile looks like. Is this at hour 40 or hour 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What's the time frame of the precip? is it associated with frontal passage (rain), or with lp development off the coast after the cold air has moved in (snow)? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 60 -- for some reason, the b/w maps on the CMC site aren't updateing (did the same thing last night) but the color ones are updating faster than usual. Don't understand it, but the 60 hours map (valid 0z Sunday) is what I'm looking at. Is this at hour 40 or hour 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I can't tell, but at Hour 60, you would think this would be snow. What's the time frame of the precip? is it associated with frontal passage (rain), or with lp development off the coast after the cold air has moved in (snow)? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I had hoped "losing" the storm yesterday might be a prelude to Christmas 2010... could be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Ukie looks to only give areas very near the coast more than .1 of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 remember, the GGEM shows QPF totals in 12 hour increments...so for some locations in NC that could be mostly rain. Of course, this all assuming the model is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 remember, the GGEM shows QPF totals in 12 hour increments...so for some locations in NC that could be mostly rain. Of course, this all assuming the model is correct. I'm really interested to hear why you would think it could be rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 remember, the GGEM shows QPF totals in 12 hour increments...so for some locations in NC that could be mostly rain. Of course, this all assuming the model is correct. It seems to match closely with the GFS. GFS gives a little less than .25 qpf to RDU and the GGEM upwards of .29 qpf. Looks like most of the precip would fall as snow (from GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Canadian during the heart of it...still waiting on 850's and precip type maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I haven't had a chance to look at the models, how does ILM look? I always thought this had a chance to be a coastal special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 000NOUS42 KNHC 132253REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.0550 PM EST WED 13 FEBRUARY 2013SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013 WSPOD NUMBER.....12-075 AMENDMENTI. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 CHANGED DESTINATION A. P28/ DROP 10 (35.0N 150.0W)/ 15/0000Z B NOAA9 11WSC TRACK28M C. 14/1930Z D. 12 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK THROUGH DROP 10 AND THEN DROPS AT 32.5N AND 30.0N ENROUTE PHNL E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 15/0600Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CHANGED P54/ DROP 8 (45.0N 166.0W)/ 16/00000Z 3. REMARK: THE NOAA G-IV WILL FLY TRACK P-9 TODAY AS DETAILED IN WSPOD 12-074.$$JWP NOUS42 KNHC 141652REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1145 AM EST THU 14 FEBRUARY 2013SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013 WSPOD NUMBER.....12-076I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 A. P54/ DROP 8 (45.0N 166.0W)/ 16/0000Z B NOAA9 12WSC TRACK54 C. 15/1930Z D. 17 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 16/0600Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. 3. REMARK: THE NOAA G-IV WILL FLY MODIFIED TRACK P-28 TODAY AS DETAILED IN AMENDED WSPOD 12-075.$$SEF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If the NOAA didn't think this one had a chance to be significant for someone, why would they waste the time/money with recon flights over the last few days? Just curious... I will exmaine the models when I get home at 4 PM, but I like what I'm reading on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If the NOAA didn't think this one had a chance to be significant for someone, why would they waste the time/money with recon flights over the last few days? Just curious... I will exmaine the models when I get home at 4 PM, but I like what I'm reading on here. The fact is, it won't take much to turn this into another huge event for the NE...they probably care little about the SE and are simply doing this for the chance that the NE could get slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I haven't had a chance to look at the models, how does ILM look? I always thought this had a chance to be a coastal special Might still get something. GFS shows some flare-up over NE SC. I would say your still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 "Kermit" is out over the Atlantic. As of the last observation at 17:17:00Z, the plane's...Direction of Travel: W (270°)Location: 395 miles (636 km) to the ESE (114°) from New York, NY, USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12Z suite more interesting, but first these are legit questions. Have systems tended to trend better this year? Seems like the NAM has been good at sniffing out systems before the GFS catches on. Actually a couple systems have over-achieved this winter. Though extended systems have crapped out, short-range systems have done fine and/or surprised to the up side. Also NAM resolution mentioned above. Glass half full people! What's the implication of the energy on the backside trending stronger? Someone in the MA forum suggested it could all phase together. Basically it contributes to a more negative tilt and greater lift. Moisture usually better too, as mentioned above, kind of going hand-in-hand with greater lift more efficient saturating the atmo. OK, looks like ENC could pick up some snow showers or light snow. Little stronger and slightly more southwest short-wave in the Miss Valley (MEM jet-streak) contributing to slightly more neg tilt broad trough and a hair west of previous position. That counts in this situation. However I don’t see a surprise bomb in the cards. Kissing jets are not in play for the South and it does not "phase." The MEM jet-streak and main jet stream on the Gulf Coast don't line up right. MEM right front and Gulf left rear, both sinking motion, interact over the South. For kissing jets you'd need the MEM left front and Gulf right rear, both rising motion, lining up. The rising motion does not line up to form kissing jets; therefore, model QPF is justifiably low. It may be low, but it's still snow. Good luck and enjoy. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It's Valentines, they NEED to "kiss" and make a baby! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAdawg Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It's Valentines, they NEED to "kiss" and make a baby! :-) good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12Z Nogaps still looks good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Not much of a change on the 12z euro. Very light precip goes across Va. but sfc low still north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12Z suite more interesting, but first these are legit questions. Actually a couple systems have over-achieved this winter. Though extended systems have crapped out, short-range systems have done fine and/or surprised to the up side. Also NAM resolution mentioned above. Glass half full people! Basically it contributes to a more negative tilt and greater lift. Moisture usually better too, as mentioned above, kind of going hand-in-hand with greater lift more efficient saturating the atmo. OK, looks like ENC could pick up some snow showers or light snow. Little stronger and slightly more southwest short-wave in the Miss Valley (MEM jet-streak) contributing to slightly more neg tilt broad trough and a hair west of previous position. That counts in this situation. However I don’t see a surprise bomb in the cards. Kissing jets are not in play for the South and it does not "phase." The MEM jet-streak and main jet stream on the Gulf Coast don't line up right. MEM right front and Gulf left rear, both sinking motion, interact over the South. For kissing jets you'd need the MEM left front and Gulf right rear, both rising motion, lining up. The rising motion does not line up to form kissing jets; therefore, model QPF is justifiably low. It may be low, but it's still snow. Good luck and enjoy. Cheers! 1/17 certainly did not overperform for many. In fact for quite a few it was a bust (I'm still waiting for my 3-5"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 60 02/17 00Z 38 30 320 12 0.13 0.10 520 531 -7.4 -33.5 1014.2 84 -TSSN 038BKN103 124BKN211 CLR 46 38 20.0 Uhm, hr 60 GFS 12z. Thundersnow for KCAE......... .. .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Hopefully it will still show the ice for next week. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Might still get something. GFS shows some flare-up over NE SC. I would say your still in the game.]Thanks. The wifi at my school blocks out any website with the word "model" or "models" in it... Lol.I'm excited for at least the chance of some token flakes here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Most of the GFS individual ensemble members from the 12z run paints about an inch across the eastern 2/3 of NC. Some are wetter and a couple are drier. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zsnowf060.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Well as some have probably guessed the Euro showed a whole bunch of nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Thanks. The wifi at my school blocks out any website with the word "model" or "models" in it... Lol. I'm excited for at least the chance of some token flakes here. LOL!!! I work at a school but our network filtering isn't that bad! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 All eyes on the 18z NAM and GFS. Let's hope the trend gets stronger. Wish Euro would come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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