Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Folks this is getting very very interesting here the GFS is even more aggressive than the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Looks very much like 0z Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Two big changes and big differences vs. 12z NAM 1) Trough axis is farther west 2) By 57 hours, tilt is negative on GFS, but still positive on NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 RDU is close to .25 on this run. Basically everyone west of CLT is in the screwzone. CLT gets around .05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC Snow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 May be interpreting the data incorrectly, but it appears that my neck of the woods sees .4-.6" throughout the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This could be a big trend on this one. RDU probably gets 2 inches...just to our southeast they could be 2 inches as well @60. This will be a heartbreaker if it trends really good for eastern sections and leaves us high and dry. What a pleasant surprise. Often these systems that don't really show anything until a couple of days end up doing very well, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Entire eastern half of N.C. now has 1-2 (maybe more if ratios are good?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 _______________________________^___________ Ok my attempt at a heartbeat after flat-lining this "storm." It's back..... Looks like a trend with the trough being slightly further west with more energy. Now the surface may try to catch up the next few runs. We might have something a little bigger than a flizzard to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The 57 hr image of the 500 setup is awesome looking we are taking some big steps to something much better looking. Where's Eyewall now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Can we get the GFS trough with the amped up energy the NAM is showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Great trend, wow. Hoping the precip keeps trending better for the coastal areas as the event draws closer. KCHS is mentioning a possibility of snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Man I'll tell you what Mid Atlantic crew has the 48 hr RGEM posted and it looks nice through my neck of the woods down into the NC mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The slight negative tilt trough is apparent at hour 54: Then, it becomes much more apparent at hour 60. Thus, we finally get some surface reflection of the upper air dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I hope this trends just a little that's all we all need. The GFS to me really showed its hand all the way back at the 30 hr mark with the energy more west into eastern Montana and more potent whereas the NAM was more weak and not putting as much emphasis on it. When will we have to wait until this energy gets better sampled? I'm assuming about this time tomorrow? Are there any more recon flights? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Have systems tended to trend better this year? Seems like the NAM has been good at sniffing out systems before the GFS catches on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Image to go along with statement below. Man I'll tell you what Mid Atlantic crew has the 48 hr RGEM posted and it looks nice through my neck of the woods down into the NC mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Image to go along with statement below. Thank you I appreciate that on my iPad won't let me post the image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 very interested to see where the Canadian goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Have systems tended to trend better this year? Seems like the NAM has been good at sniffing out systems before the GFS catches on. Is this a joke?! If systems had tended to trend better, we wouldn't all be lamenting our lack of wintry weather. So, no, to answer your question. We've had lots of fantasy snow, and nothing has really trended to reality snow so far this year. This storm could be the first, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What's the implication of the energy on the backside trending stronger? Someone in the MA forum suggested it could all phase together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What's the implication of the energy on the backside trending stronger? Someone in the MA forum suggested it could all phase together. I would think if the GFS was stronger with the energy you would see more moisture to the west...certain for the MA and NE crew they want the system to blow up off the coast and to go up which may not really help MBY outside of eastern portions of NC/SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Have systems tended to trend better this year? Seems like the NAM has been good at sniffing out systems before the GFS catches on. Remember, the NAM is a higher resolution model than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The SREF is catching on (sorry, had the wrong run before) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I sure like seeing that slug of moisture up into southern Ga. Baby steps....but times a wasting.. Need a bowling ball with the bulleyes over me, lol, but I guess I'd take flurries. Still no precip for me on Meteostar, even when the green was on me last night. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This storm (?) has always had a bit of a 'sneak' factor attached to it. It's the only reason I've followed it closer than any other this Winter. Since I broke up with Winter this morning I'm anxious to see if it tries to win me back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12z Canadian definitely follows the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Widspread 2.5 to 5 mm precip for eastern 2/3 of N.C. -- including CLT -- with 5 to 7.5 mm for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Almost all of S.C. at 2.5-5 mm. Hard to tell what temp profile looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Widspread 2.5 to 5 mm precip for eastern 2/3 of N.C. -- including CLT -- with 5 to 7.5 mm for RDU. I'm liking this more and more. Let's see if Euro catches on. We might be in business then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 2.5mm = about .1 of QPF so assuming thicknesses are OK, we'd be talking about measurable snow for much of the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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