Jon Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 why is no one chiming in about this event for the 22 and 23. after watching the clip it makes perfect sense to me for next week. Because it's day 9 and just started showing up on the Euro (the setup)...everyone has been focused on this weekends event they aren't thinking pattern, also the GFS looks pretty bad for this period if I recall unless it has trended toward the Euro. You should post about it in the pattern disco thread to get everyone going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 why is no one chiming in about this event for the 22 and 23. after watching the clip it makes perfect sense to me for next week. Tired of chasing the winter carrot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Because it's day 9 and just started showing up on the Euro (the setup)...everyone has been focused on this weekends event they aren't thinking pattern, also the GFS looks pretty bad for this period if I recall unless it has trended toward the Euro. You should post about it in the pattern disco thread to get everyone going. Me and Burger were talking about it yesterday. I think it was in the pinned Feb thread. 00z euro still shows it though I can't see the 168 hr panels on rw's site. But yeah TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Through 48 hours NAM trough axis a bit west and a bit sharper -- probably not enough to matter, but .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Through 48 hours NAM trough axis a bit west and a bit sharper -- probably not enough to matter, but .... And energy is dropping down on hours 45 and 48 that was non existent on the 6z. I think there might be a glimmer of hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Still not there, but now popping low off N.C. coast that wasn't there before -- couple more trends like that and ENC will be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Looks like pretty significant differences at 5h this run. Might show flurries in FLA if I'm reading this right. It's cold enough at 850 anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Hi-Res NAM actually has some descent returns at hour 39 around GSO...At 60 around Columbia it actually looks pretty juicy as well....Just MHO but this bears watching. The NAM has done well at picking up trends this year. We gotta see if this can keep trending better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Nocraps still looks good for eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NOUS42 KWNO 141500ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD1458Z THU FEB 14 2013THE 12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS RUNNING ON-TIME...12Z RAOB RECAP..70361/YAK - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEMS..72645/GRB - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEMS..91348/PNI - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEMS..78866/SXM - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEMS..76526/ZAC - TTAA NOT AVAILABLE..78073/NAS - SHORT TO 645MB; 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEMS..72388/VEF - 10159; NOT AVAILABLE.. SHORT TO 746MB..72274/TWC - NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE NAM; IN FOR THE GFS..78988/CUR - PURGE TEMPS/HUMIDITY 841 TO 716MB SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Nocraps still looks good for eastern NC. How far east are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Looks like pretty significant differences at 5h this run. Might show flurries in FLA if I'm reading this right. It's cold enough at 850 anyway. What are you looking at, and when and where might it show flurries in Florida? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 KCHS keeps mentioning the threat of some potential light snow showers, and possibly a Lake Moultrie Enhanced Snow Shower event for Charleston, Dorchester, and Berkeley Counties. Very interesting tidbit SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE MOST INTERESTING PARTOF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT THERE IS A REMOTECHANCE OF SOME WINTER PRECIP WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLDFRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL POSITION ITSELF OVER THE EASTERNSTATES LATE SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITH THETROUGH TO IMPACT THE REGION...BEFORE BOTH FEATURES BEGIN TO LIFT OUTBY SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH OF SATURDAY IS RELATIVELY QUIET AS WE WAITFOR SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG PVA ALOFT TOP MOVE IN LATESATURDAY. THICKNESS IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER SUPPORTS MAX TEMPSMAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S WITH MORNING SUNSHINE TO GIVE WAY TO ANINCREASE IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS. AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGHAFTER 3-4 PM WE MIGHT OBTAIN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THECHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA. THEN THE MAIN CONCERN IS IN REGARDSTO WHETHER OR NOT THE SHOWERS END OR DO THEY CHANGE OVER TO SOMESNOW OR FLURRIES. WE/RE STILL NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH MOISTUREAVAILABILITY WILL BE REALIZED ONCE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES...BUT AS THECOLD CORE TROUGH MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT IT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPSTO PLUNGE AS STRONGER NW AND NORTH WINDS DEVELOP. OUR CONFIDENCE ATPRESENT IS THAT THE SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END DURING THEEVENING...PRIOR TO THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING. HOWEVER...WITH THESTRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT AND ALSO STEEP LAPSE RATES TO DEVELOP ACROSSLAKE MOULTRIE WE ARE STILL NOT CONVINCED THAT SOME LIGHTSNOW...FLURRIES OR EVEN SNOW SHOWERS COULDN/T OCCUR OVERCHARLESTON...BERKELEY AND MAYBE DORCHESTER COUNTIES. THERE HAS BEENBETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY OF LATE IN THIS REGARD...SO THE SITUATIONWILL BEAR CLOSE SCRUTINY. EVEN IF NO WINTER WEATHER OCCURS...MINTEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE AS COLD AS THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NOUS42 KWNO 141500 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1458Z THU FEB 14 2013 THE 12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS RUNNING ON-TIME... 12Z RAOB RECAP.. 70361/YAK - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEMS.. 72645/GRB - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEMS.. 91348/PNI - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEMS.. 78866/SXM - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEMS.. 76526/ZAC - TTAA NOT AVAILABLE.. 78073/NAS - SHORT TO 645MB; 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEMS.. 72388/VEF - 10159; NOT AVAILABLE.. SHORT TO 746MB.. 72274/TWC - NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE NAM; IN FOR THE GFS.. 78988/CUR - PURGE TEMPS/HUMIDITY 841 TO 716MB SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE.. Meaning toss the 12z suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 How far east are you talking about? Couple inches for Wake Forest, maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Meaning toss the 12z suite? Remember when the HPC tossed the whole model suite whenever the models worked back towards the coast with the Christmas/Boxing Day Storm? By the way, Cold Rain, the 12z NOGAPS is not out on the Navy's web site yet. Where are you getting it at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What are you looking at, and when and where might it show flurries in Florida? Thanks! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12z Hi-Res Nam has snow for Waycross, GA at 54-57hr. (well, precipitation, anyway) Metalic, wake up ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Couple inches for Wake Forest, maybe... Sure is a lot of back and forth going on with this. I just read Alan Huffman's blog for today and he said it didn't look like anything but a little rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Remember when the HPC tossed the whole model suite whenever the models worked back towards the coast with the Christmas/Boxing Day Storm? By the way, Cold Rain, the 12z NOGAPS is not out on the Navy's web site yet. Where are you getting it at? It's the 0Z. Sorry, I wasn't clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Sure is a lot of back and forth going on with this. I just read Alan Huffman's blog for today and he said it didn't look like anything but a little rain. That because nobody in their right mind forecasts off the nogaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That because nobody in their right mind forecasts off the nogaps. Well, with the way winter has been here the last two years, anything is game at this point. I don't think we have an idea of what will really happen around here anymore until it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12z GFS at 30 more pronounced with the energy in eastern Montana vs the 12z Nam at the same timeframe not sure if that'll matter much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Sure is a lot of back and forth going on with this. I just read Alan Huffman's blog for today and he said it didn't look like anything but a little rain. Well, that would be what you would take to Vegas. It's back and forth because we're not limited to anything on these forums. We do a lot of "what if", he doesn't. The storm hasn't been progged to bring snow in central NC for several runs now, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Trough axis sliding west vs. 6z run, but I don't think this trend is going to be significant enough to save most of us, except for perhaps coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Wow big change on the GFS. HPC might want to throw it out but RDU won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC Snow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 @54hr looks to be dropping some decent precip over ENC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 WOW -- big changes on 12gfs -- measureable snow for eastern NC/SE va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12z GFS from 48-54 about 1" snow throughout central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Trough axis sliding west vs. 6z run, but I don't think this trend is going to be significant enough to save most of us, except for perhaps coastal areas. This could be a big trend on this one. RDU probably gets 2 inches...just to our southeast they could be 2 inches as well @60. This will be a heartbreaker if it trends really good for eastern sections and leaves us high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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