Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

WidreMann told us it was gonna snow thread


LithiaWx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Trends are slightly better, but it's going to take more than some token tweaks to bring our storm back. I'll wait till 00z tomorrow night to throw in the towel utterly.

Yea I think I am going to have the same gameplan. I am a lot more interested in this little 51 hr GFS run that blasts thru here than I was seeing as how it was a non event to begin.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

yep model blackout until around 12:47 when the euro and others start running.

Perfect timing for my brain blackout until around 8 AM, when all those models have already run and produced what I'm sure to be disappointing results. Still, this winter has been better than last. Token snow and sleet is better than an hour of light snow that melts overnight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ukie definitely puts RDU in 1-2 inches.

We got a trend and everybody had already gone to bed!

Seriously, one run of one model, but while the sensible weather wasn't changing much on GFS/NAM, there were some subtle changes in the trough -- a bit sharper and tilting a bit sooner. Also intrigued by what the NAM did over the NE with the system before ours. Anyway, still a long shot, but .....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FFC this morning:

 

 

Not entirely bad news this morning:
 
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S IN THE NE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...HIGHS IN THE 40'S ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME LOWER 50'S IN
SOUTH CENTRAL GA. WINDS WON'T COMPLETELY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...AND
WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE 20'S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS WILL BE LIKELY. 
 
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE STATES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ISN'T MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH SUCH STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING...IT MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA INTO THE EVENING. A FEW FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO AREAS. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN CWA.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

First, Happy Valentine's Day ... even for us broken-hearted Snowhounds!

 

Secondly, does the prevalent  "stick a fork in this winter" mantra have a foundation other than the ongoing disappointment this year has brought? Long-range outlook appears to be for an active pattern over the next couple of weeks.

 

But then, I'm  life-long fan of Clemson basketball ... obviously I've never learned when to toss in the towel.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I raise the question because it looks to me that the preci occurs immediately behind the cold frontal passage and the strong CAA is still hours away.

 

According to the NAM when the flizzard moves over even at RDU 850's are between 0 and -4.  DP is around 32 and sinks to 25 as they are passing. Critical Thickness is also good enough. All that tells me at least it should be an all snow sounding. Of course we're talking about a 3 hour window of passing showers basically so who knows?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

According to the NAM when the flizzard moves over even at RDU 850's are between 0 and -4.  DP is around 32 and sinks to 25 as they are passing. Critical Thickness is also good enough. All that tells me at least it should be an all snow sounding. Of course we're talking about a 3 hour window of passing showers basically so who knows?

 

how bout GSO? INT? DAN? or is it way past us? ive got my iphone ready in case i see a flake or 2 :weenie:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know and applaud the general disdain that the snow maps are held ... but they do paint an interesting sort of "orphan storm scenario" for Saturday night and Sunday morning across the Carolinas. None look as potent as the Euro, with a nice swath across NE NC and SE Va., and the Ukie offered a similar scenario.

 

The NAM's map dribbles a half-inch or so in a crescent from Myrtle Beach up to about Winston-Salem. And the GFS map coats much of interior SC with a similar dusting.

 

It isn't the be-all, end-all, but someone in this neck of the woods might receive a pleasant surprise come Sunday morning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow!  Check this out from the 00z gfs.  It actually shows thundersnow at GSO at 1 am Saturday morning with .09 precip previous 6 hrs.  Rarely if ever does it show -tssn. 

Here's the link.  If you want a different location, just go into the address bar and replace "gso" with the call letter you want.

 

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kgso.txt

 

TW

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1-2 0r maybe 2-4 would satisfy me the way this winter has gone around the triangle. I would love to see it. Hopefully we will get the big event next week, DT mentioned the possibility on his video tonight. 

why is no one chiming in about this event for the 22 and 23.  after watching the clip it makes perfect sense to me for next week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...