WeSuck Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 For the weenies who have yet to jump... the NAM has initialized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 For the weenies who have yet to jump... the NAM has initialized Hopefully it initialized the whole mass field 200 miles WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 15z sref says next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 For the weenies who have yet to jump... the NAM has initialized LOL. It has the shortwave over Iowa quite a bit weaker at hr 30, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Wowza, well at the very least the NAM is super cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 With the NAM around the 72-75 hr Vorticity setup is there any reason as to why the surface reflection isn't looking better with the vort down along the gulf coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The nam imo is a big improvement. Surface reflection is horrible but definitely closer. We are so damn close.... 84 hour nam...keep telling myself this but I can't stop looking at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The GFS is running. Here comes the big one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The GFS is running. Here comes the big one! Out to zero....let's see where she goes. Man, I wish Burger were in here doing PBP!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Out to zero....let's see where she goes. Man, I wish Burger were in here doing PBP!!!! Sorry I was in a long meeting earlier I'm here just not much to report on. Interestingly enough the hi-res NAM @54 has snow breaking across the Piedmont and into RDU...nothing to write home about but some pretty flurries but it might bear watching as the UKMet had some good moisture around central NC and into VA @72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Wow, Burger, the High-Res NAM is kind of a legit light snow event across the northern half of NC. I don't know how much I can trust it at this stage, but if the Ukie leads some credence, then who knows? The GFS has shown a flizzard during this time period at times, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Wow, Burger, the High-Res NAM is kind of a legit light snow event across the northern half of NC. I don't know how much I can trust it at this stage, but if the Ukie leads some credence, then who knows? The GFS has shown a flizzard during this time period at times, as well. There are great returns over RDU @57 on the composite radar....but it would probably be nothing but a flizzard at that point....still fun to watch. I haven't seen one these last two winters so I'll take it if it can somehow make it down into CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Sorry I was in a long meeting earlier I'm here just not much to report on. Interestingly enough the hi-res NAM @54 has snow breaking across the Piedmont and into RDU...nothing to write home about but some pretty flurries but it might bear watching as the UKMet had some good moisture around central NC and into VA @72. At this point, I will take that all day. Thanks B! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 18z GFS looks like the 12z same old same old....next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Looks like the trough out west is sharping up a little through 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 18z GFS looks like the 12z same old same old....next. I think this storm is a wash unless the NAM can really pull out a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I officially resign from tracking this storm closely anymore. Although the energy looks different from run to runs, the core players just aren't there for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The surface reflection just doesn't match, after tonights 00z runs it might be time to pull the plug. Hanging on just to see the new recon data in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 11 pages of nothing. People really have got to stop grasping straws here. It's over and has been for days now. Put this thread and the rest of Winter in the garbage can. But there's recon, man, recon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The surface reflection just doesn't match, after tonights 00z runs it might be time to pull the plug. Hanging on just to see the new recon data in the models. Its on life support. Move on to next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 There are great returns over RDU @57 on the composite radar....but it would probably be nothing but a flizzard at that point....still fun to watch. I haven't seen one these last two winters so I'll take it if it can somehow make it down into CLT. The 18z GFS picked up on it some, too, and put up some 0.10-0.25" QPF at one point in SE VA. Maybe the northern tier of NC can sneak a flizzard out of that. The regular 18z NAM didn't really have anything, though, so I don't know. On the other hand, the 18z NAM did look better for the real event (granted, probably not good enough). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The 18z GFS picked up on it some, too, and put up some 0.10-0.25" QPF at one point in SE VA. Maybe the northern tier of NC can sneak a flizzard out of that. The regular 18z NAM didn't really have anything, though, so I don't know. On the other hand, the 18z NAM did look better for the real event (granted, probably not good enough). Yeah, I think a lot of that is bay effect in se va and ne nc. Have to see if it keeps that up in future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Not sure it will matter but 00z is further west with that energy coming over the plains. @30 on 18z it had it in Iowa....@24 now on the 00z it's in Nebraska. Also the vort coming out of the southwest is a little bit stronger. Don't think these are going to make much of a difference though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Was just about to say something about this pretty big difference in where that vort is compared to what 18z had lol flight data ftw haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 27 hr has it over northeastern Kansas vs 18z 33 hr where it was over extreme eastern Iowa/western Illinois interesting but don't think it'll make a difference myself maybe we can get those snow showers down to burger for fri night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 You can see what the diff. makes on this run. Some light snow breaking out over STL when the last few runs had nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 27 hr has it over northeastern Kansas vs 18z 33 hr where it was over extreme eastern Iowa/western Illinois interesting but don't think it'll make a difference myself maybe we can get those snow showers down to burger for fri night Ha don't think that's gonna happen but maybe someone to my north can see a little action from this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 42 hr has a healthy amount of precip breaking out over Southern Indiana with light precip reaching the va and nc borders respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 00z NAM might show some snow showers for northern NC on this run...all gonna depend if that light precip can make it over the mountains. Light snow in far eastern TN @48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 42 hr has a healthy amount of precip breaking out over Southern Indiana with light precip reaching the va and nc borders respectively.thats from the front. The real question is the energy diving down the backside of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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