Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 So won't the 12Z Canadian, eh, run be the new upgraded version? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 So won't the 12Z Canadian, eh, run be the new upgraded version? Tomorrow I thought. It depends on what it shows too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I've been saying next weekend is the one as a fairly strong -nao begins to move neutral/positive. Has happened many times in the past. TW when you say next weekend are you talking about the 23 and 24 and not the 16 and 17, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 We need the euro to be a hit, if he trends the wrong way we will be in serious trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 when you say next weekend are you talking about the 23 and 24 and not the 16 and 17, right? The Euro is showing a pretty decent -NAO next week and it could suppress the storm track south late next week or the 23-24th time frame. If its correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The Euro is showing a pretty decent -NAO next week and it could suppress the storm track south late next week or the 23-24th time frame. If its correct. We basically need the fast, continuous parade of vorts off of the Pacific to either slow down or space out in order for something to develop. These pockets of energy keep beating down the PNA and pushing the trough axis too far east. Seeing the strong -nao does give us some hope LR, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The Euro is showing a pretty decent -NAO next week and it could suppress the storm track south late next week or the 23-24th time frame. If its correct. I got ya, well hopefully we can have a suppressed storm track but at the same time lets hope the cold can come with the suppressed storm track of which I hate this weekend we'll have the cold in place which always seems to be the thing we're lacking. Let's hope and pull one out maybe next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 That a lot of salt for a birthday meal ( might want to get your blood pressure checked)! I just don't think it's being modeled right, there is so much energy around it can be keying in on the wrong feature ( all models). When have you not seen rain and heavy rain when a low is coming through the GULF. What has me watching so closely is that POTENTIALLY it still could be a monster of a storm. Lol. Frosty still waiting on 48 u told him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I know you're being facicious here but I actually agree with number 1 in principle. For this "event", there really hasn't been more than one run spaced out here and there that really showed a SE storm at all (One of them was an 18Z GFS run!). It's great when those runs come, but for an actual thread to be made for a threat (for it to really be a threat) I think there needs to be at least 3 consecutive runs of the GFS or EURO that shows it first. I'm not picky on the days though, if there's 3-4 consecutive runs 8-9 days I'm down with that since it's got potential, IMO. I would agree with number 1 as well - in times of split flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Just do not see this one working out, too much agreement on positive orientation and any surface wave that does develop, does so way offshore. If if a model all of a sudden popped a storm, it would instantly become an outlier. The ensembles have pretty good continuity amongst one another, indicating any chance for this to magically turn around does not seem possible. Sorry :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Lol. Frosty still waiting on 48 u told him We have had 48 inches + of condensed liquid snow! If you had of added all the liquid up and did a 10:1 ratio I'm winning! Yep, things surely didn't pan out like I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Euro out to 24. More red stuff up in Canada. Let's see where she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 12Z Doctor pretty much says "no" and "next" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Euro puts the nail in the coffin I'm afraid. Pretty much the same as the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Euro out to 24. More red stuff up in Canada. Let's see where she goes. Unfortunately it turns out about the same. I'm out to hr 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Let's see what it does for the 2/21 timeframe...LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Well this is no fun at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Well this is no fun at all. Our only hope is the NAM somehow sees some feature everything else is missing and latches on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On mobile, anything for se va light snow wise like the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On mobile, anything for se va light snow wise like the GFS? Just scrapes the outerbanks and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 FWIW, here is the High-Res NAM at hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Our only hope is the NAM somehow sees some feature everything else is missing and latches on. The thing is, it's really not THAT far away from bringing a little something to eastern areas. But it seems the models are laser focused on this now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Well this is no fun at all. But ;you are intensly happy that I'm getting all this good rain, right? And knowing the rains returning to partched parts of paradise mean a wetter pattern has set up and any sustained cold will have moisture to work with makes you happier, right? So...now we need some sustained cold..i.e. re inforcing blasts and not this ever lessening cold event this weekend, which is now giving me 40's for highs and barely into the 20's at night, and only lasting a day or so. We need to see shot after shot reaching the gulf...so, maybe now we have to wait for Larry's climo to do the work for us. Meanwhile, I know you are happy for me and my rain, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 But ;you are intensly happy that I'm getting all this good rain, right? And knowing the rains returning to partched parts of paradise mean a wetter pattern has set up and any sustained cold will have moisture to work with makes you happier, right? So...now we need some sustained cold..i.e. re inforcing blasts and not this ever lessening cold event this weekend, which is now giving me 40's for highs and barely into the 20's at night, and only lasting a day or so. We need to see shot after shot reaching the gulf...so, maybe now we have to wait for Larry's climo to do the work for us. Meanwhile, I know you are happy for me and my rain, lol. T Tony, I'm definitely happy for you and your rain I measured 10.5" over the last 8 days which has to be the greatest total over that span of time since Tropical Storm Alberto moved through this area back in 1994. I believe that total was about 15". Now that we've made up some of our rain deficit, let's go to work on our snow deficit! I'm counting on Dr. Larry's analogs to pull a late-season winter storm out of the hat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I am very happy for your rain, Tony! For kicks, I tried to check out the 12Z Nogaps and the 12Z JMA, but NG isn't working on eWall and seems to be weird on Allan's site. And JMA doesn't seem to be working properly on Earl Barker's site. I know it's stupid to look at the JMA, but I just don't care!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Lordy, Lordy, El K, that's amazingly wonderful. You and Chris/Delta have sure caught the brass ring!! Yep, when the balance returns to Ga. the signs are great for all This has been my favorite winter in years just for the rains...and who knows...maybe we get another March super storm this year..it's coming...lightening does strike twice in the same place..might take 300 years..but might not I just want to see the 0 line hit Fla in two successive pushes on the models..now we're getting rains the rest of the balance can return. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Maybe we should change the tagline under this topic from Widespread joy? to Widespread Panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 How's this for Saturday's pin-point forecast for MBY: Saturday A chance of snow showers between 1pm and 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 30%. I better set the alarm to remind myself when to go outside to watch the flakes fall. I don't want to miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Tony, I'm definitely happy for you and your rain I measured 10.5" over the last 8 days which has to be the greatest total over that span of time since Tropical Storm Alberto moved through this area back in 1994. I believe that total was about 15". Now that we've made up some of our rain deficit, let's go to work on our snow deficit! I'm counting on Dr. Larry's analogs to pull a late-season winter storm out of the hat! Alberto..what a great storm. The only time in my life I needed scuba gear to breath outside I can't believe it would take another cut off TD to give you the kind of rains you just got And there in lies my pollyanna outlook going forward. With this kind of energy in the southern stream, all we need is a northern balance for it, instead of these weak pushes of modified cold that don't even cause shivers Hope Roberts block stays on the maps. If Dr. L's climo cold appears under a real block, winter is on...maybe, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustagaweather Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I know you're being facicious here but I actually agree with number 1 in principle. For this "event", there really hasn't been more than one run spaced out here and there that really showed a SE storm at all (One of them was an 18Z GFS run!). It's great when those runs come, but for an actual thread to be made for a threat (for it to really be a threat) I think there needs to be at least 3 consecutive runs of the GFS or EURO that shows it first. I'm not picky on the days though, if there's 3-4 consecutive runs 8-9 days I'm down with that since it's got potential, IMO. I can see the point, but this thread is up to 11 pages. For the sake of conversation management I think a new thread was justified. I'm generally just a quiet spectator and hate having to decipher which storm someone is talking about in the general monthly discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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