calculus1 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Here's the hour 84 vorticity map. There appears to be lots of energy at the upper levels. Why is there no response at the surface level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 It's just all too far east. Can't have a pos. or neutral trough axis that's this broad over Alabama and get anything out of it. Hell, CLT 850s at 81 hours are at -9C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Finally at 84 the axis digs into the FL panhandle and the norther Gulf and the energy at the base or slightly behind the axis. Anything that could develope would be suppressed before moving too far off shore. In short the Southern Stream energy is just too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 If the trough axis was back at the MS/LA border this would be a storm. Instead everthing is too far east and a low forms OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Sensible weather remains the same....for now. Lot's of energy in the base of the trough. Just slightly too far east. Again, it's not far away. But in the end, an inch is as good as a mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Sensible weather remains the same....for now. Lot's of energy in the base of the trough. Just slightly too far east. Again, it's not far away. But in the end, an inch is as good as a mile. It just goes to show you how you can have a great setup and not have good timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The lack of any real surface reflection is something I don't buy in this run but it would be out to sea anyway if this verified: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 It just goes to show you how you can have a great setup and not have good timing. Everything really has to come together here in the SE perfectly just to get a marginal event. That's even in a good pattern. Jan. 2010 is a perfect example of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 This is definitely horribly disappointing. As of now I don't see this coming to be. I may have to settle for a worse winter than last. We would need a 12+ hour shift in terms of getting an earlier phase to be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 UKMet, NAM, Euro all look similar. Probably the most 'interesting' aspect of this system would be the potential for it to produce token flakes / dusting to the SC coast...and area where it is very, very difficult to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 This is definitely horribly disappointing. As of now I don't see this coming to be. I may have to settle for a worse winter than last. We would need a 12+ hour shift in terms of getting an earlier phase to be in the game. That so much to ask for 4 days out?. Haha! Besides, it's the 84 hour NAM. Don't we usually throw that out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Euro trended better last night, throwing some precip into SC. 12z GFS and EURO will be key. I don't agree with jumping ship and giving up because the 84hr nam didn't show what we need, the possibility is still very much on the table. We just need the 12z suite to trend in our direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Well the GFS looks a tad better than last nights run but that isn't saying much. Out to 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm just waiting for todays storm to go by us in the east, so then the models can handle the data better. I hope they send another recon in later today or evening. I think the guys at NOAA know something is a miss with the data that's why they sent a plane in yesterday. Tonight 00z runs will be fun! Also as EYEWALL pointed out the surface doesn't seem logical with all the energy merging somewhere from TX, LA, to FLA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Flight leaves at 2000Z or about 4 hours from now. Hurry...! Plan of the Day 000NOUS42 KNHC 121743REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1230 PM EST TUE 12 FEBRUARY 2013SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013 WSPOD NUMBER.....12-074I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 A. P9/ DROP 7 (45.0N 167.0W)/ 14/0000Z B NOAA9 10WSC TRACK9 C. 13/2000Z D. 15 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 14/0600Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. 3. REMARK: THE NOAA G-IV WILL FLY TRACK P-23 TODAY AS DETAILED IN WSPOD 12-073.$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The GFS took a baby step in the right direction but it's pretty inconsequential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 It's just enough of a change to give the outer banks snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm just waiting for todays storm to go by us in the east, so then the models can handle the data better. I hope they send another recon in later today or evening. I think the guys at NOAA know something is a miss with the data that's why they sent a plane in yesterday. Tonight 00z runs will be fun! Also as EYEWALL pointed out the surface doesn't seem logical with all the energy merging somewhere from TX, LA, to FLA. when its a toss up generally we lose out. JB did say anything possible with this but did like the next ten days with what euro showing. Robert also emailed me this morning saying the same thing. I for one not to confident but if it happens I have run buy 10 tons of salt as I am out. I do like the set up next weekend. That would be a great birthday present for me. Good to hear from you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 It's just enough of a change to give the outer banks snow. Pretty much. The trough needs to hang back more but that just doesn't want to happen in this regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 eh...this one is not coming back guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 We may have to go to a 48 hour rule on storm threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yea at 84 the nam had somewhat of a phase between the 2 down near the gulf coast where the GFS doesn't dig nearly as much and does not have any phasing if I'm looking at this correctly. Very confusing with all the different areas showing up on the 500 setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 We may have to go to a 48 hour rule on storm threads. Have it covered in my signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yeah, this one smacked of desperation. Minimum criteria for storm thread: 1) Euro has to show the event for 3 straight runs, inside 7 days 2) Then Euro has to show it for 3 more runs in a row. 3) Then Deltadog and Eyewall have to personally approve the thread 4) Then there has to be at least one more Euro run showing the storm. We may have to go to a 48 hour rule on storm threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Here's the hour 84 vorticity map. There appears to be lots of energy at the upper levels. Why is there no response at the surface level? Compare to this and you see how close, but yet so far we are as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I've been saying next weekend is the one as a fairly strong -nao begins to move neutral/positive. Has happened many times in the past. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 when its a toss up generally we lose out. JB did say anything possible with this but did like the next ten days with what euro showing. Robert also emailed me this morning saying the same thing. I for one not to confident but if it happens I have run buy 10 tons of salt as I am out. I do like the set up next weekend. That would be a great birthday present for me. Good to hear from you That a lot of salt for a birthday meal ( might want to get your blood pressure checked)! I just don't think it's being modeled right, there is so much energy around it can be keying in on the wrong feature ( all models). When have you not seen rain and heavy rain when a low is coming through the GULF. What has me watching so closely is that POTENTIALLY it still could be a monster of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yeah, this one smacked of desperation. Minimum criteria for storm thread: 1) Euro has to show the event for 3 straight runs, inside 7 days 2) Then Euro has to show it for 3 more runs in a row. 3) Then Deltadog and Eyewall have to personally approve the thread 4) Then there has to be at least one more Euro run showing the storm. I know you're being facicious here but I actually agree with number 1 in principle. For this "event", there really hasn't been more than one run spaced out here and there that really showed a SE storm at all (One of them was an 18Z GFS run!). It's great when those runs come, but for an actual thread to be made for a threat (for it to really be a threat) I think there needs to be at least 3 consecutive runs of the GFS or EURO that shows it first. I'm not picky on the days though, if there's 3-4 consecutive runs 8-9 days I'm down with that since it's got potential, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Pretty much. The trough needs to hang back more but that just doesn't want to happen in this regime. If you look at the axis center point on the January 2000 map I posted and look at the latest NAM above it. The latest NAM is centered over about Waynesville, but Jan 200 was centered over about Chattanooga. So this is the distance and sorta benchmark the triad needs to get back to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 It looks like that the trough is modeled to be very sharp. How does this lead to an out to sea solution. Is it because the energy isn't timed right with the trough sharpening? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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